Companies are the source of change in our economy. Simply stated, they make things happen. We are wealthier because of their ability and willingness to act boldly, think creatively, and leap into uncharted territory. While politicians promise, companies act. As noted management guru Peter Drucker observed, companies are designed to take risks and move forward. They succeed, fail, and—sometimes—come back to life in story lines you can't possibly make up.
Even so, over the past ten years the stock market has remained stagnant. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is where it was a decade ago. We have seen precious little progress in stock prices for a long time, especially in technology stocks that boomed and crashed a decade ago. So why would you invest in stocks or the stock market?
Because we have learned a few things by studying history. Back in the late 1960s and 1970s, the economy went through a tough period replete with awful fiscal and monetary policies, a nasty war, and a resigning president followed by one who was unelected. It seemed like precious little was working correctly for more than 17 years. The stock market went nowhere for almost two decades. In a BusinessWeek cover story from August 1979 entitled “The Death of Equities,” the authors argued that inflation was destroying the stock market. (The cover depicted a downed paper airline made out of a stock certificate.) “Today, the old attitude of buying solid stocks as a cornerstone for one's life savings and retirement has simply disappeared,” the author wrote.
Little did they know that a new league of entrepreneurs was busy designing and building the systems, methods and technologies that currently drive our economy. Names like Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, Oracle, Genentech, Amgen, Walmart, Costco, Toyota, Nissan and Corning helped fuel a stock market comeback. A lot of investors and company founders became millionaires; some even became billionaires. All of this grew from a seriously unhealthy U.S. economy.
So here we are again. The United States is fertile ground for a new batch of entrepreneurs working in their garages on the next big thing. Government policies will change. We will reshuffle our priorities and the economy will start to grow yet again.
The question is whether you can stomach the ride. Do you have the patience and the fortitude to remain interested in finding a few of the next great companies when everyone else has dismissed the notion of stock investing? The opportunity is at hand, not to commit immediately and recklessly, but to invest smartly, while resisting the collective investment mentality. When the mood of the country is “anti stocks,” you can probably count on the notion that the price is right. Great returns often start with buying in at the right price.
Dan Nestlerode
Dan Nestlerode is the Director of Research and Portfolio Management at Nestlerode & Loy, Inc., which next year will celebrate the 75th anniversary of its founding. He can be reached at danielj@nestlerode.com.
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