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From Snow to Cael Sanderson’s Cookies: Musings from Florida

on March 08, 2011 6:00 AM

My mom and dad are  "snowbirds," and we finally took them up on an offer to come down to their Florida place for a week. So this week’s offering will be some odds and ends, basically a Bob Dylan-stream-of-consciousness post.

The  return of the "Bald Iggle Brawler"

Quentin Wright and his teammates and coaches: Big Ten champs!

Wright—"the Bald Iggle Brawler"—and the rest of the Penn State wrestling squad showed that the setbacks they had were merely things to fire them up.

Interestingly, after the Iowa match, there was a lot of grumbling coming from the fan base. It was as if all Iowa has done, and continues to do, was just going to fall away magically and Penn State would simply crush it. No one close to the program believed that, knowing the difficulty of this journey to get and stay on top.  

But the idea that winning is the fruit, not object, of one’s labor is such that I’m sure our kids knew that the Iowa match could have gone the other way. Just as they know that what happened this weekend is a stepping-stone.

Suppose we had beaten Iowa in the duel, and then lost by a point this weekend? Does that change anything as far as what is in front of us this year and beyond?

This is a great moment for Penn State wrestling, no doubt, but knowing what I know about the people leading this program, this is no peak, but simply a place to stand in order to reach for the next "goal."  And when they get that, they will savor it, have their post-tournament pizza party, stand up and take a look at the view from that point—and reach higher.

Iowa will be ready to go at the nationals, and Cornell is there, too. But right here at Penn State—like a hungry dog looking at a piece of red meat—our wrestling squad is savoring the chance to fight to go even further.

They will have that chance later next week.

Sunday’s snow

I had been tweeting on this matter since Feb. 28, when we had our thunderstorm in State College and cited the Carolina winter thunderstorm rule. Within a week of a winter thunderstorm in the western Carolinas, it’s supposed to snow. Well, central Pennsylvania in the late part of winter is like the western Carolinas in mid-winter. Sure enough, snow within a week of our thunderstorm.

And count on more snow before it’s all over: Unlike last year when we had the nicest March and April we have ever had, no such luck this year. Plenty of frustration for lovers of spring weather will be on display between March 20 and April 10. In fact, in La Nina  seasons, March is often the snowiest month. Sorry, but it is what it is.

Global "cooling" 

Can’t argue with the facts. Last February I forecasted that the La Nina would come on and the global temp would crash to normal or below in 2011, after the warm El Nino spike of  2010. The response in the tropical water temps is impossible to ignore. 

Take a look at Dr. Roy Spencer’s site.

And this from Dr. Ryan Maue.

Now, the theory I have is that the Pacific, which was at the end of its cold cycle at the start of the satellite era in the late 70s and has been in its warm cycle so you see the rise going on, will force the global response over the next 20 to 30 years with cooling as we are going back into its cool cycle again. 

The La Ninas are much more prominent in the cold cycle of the Pacific and the temps will fall back down to where they were by 2030 in a down/up fashion—more down than up. It’s a simple theory, which can now be objectively tested.

Hurricane season: lower number, more hits

Why? The weakening La Nina with a warm Atlantic Ocean is an ugly signal for the U.S. Coast—and more East Coast. Look at the mid-1950s, 1996, 1999, and 2008, and the screaming message is: look out.

The numbers won’t be as high overall as last year  (18, which was at the top end of my forecast from last Feb. 16-18). But don’t count on the amazing  "avoidance" of the U.S. coast. Lower numbers, more bang for the buck, and the East Coast is due, given the cyclical nature of the pattern.

Let’s see if the other hurricane hunters out there see the same thing as they come out with their forecasts. This forecast was first alluded to in December as I always establish a  "flow" of a forecast: one blends into another. Ao as of this writing, I am still in that camp.

My mom’s chocolate-chip cheesecake

Unreal. On an empty stomach, it’s almost an instant energy provider. It's even better than Cael Sanderson’s "Undefeated Cookies." (I live on those things when I am training hard.)

However, the old bodybuilding adage "bulk up or leave town" takes on new meaning here since I’ll be bulked up once I leave Florida eating this each day.

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