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Joe Bastardi: East Coast Hurricanes? Pacific Cooling? Been There, Done That

on October 04, 2011 6:00 AM

We are in the 1950s again in the overall climate cycle. And while weather patterns now are not exactly the same, the similarities are striking.

The only thing we have not seen is the onslaught of East Coast hurricanes that occurred in the '50s, but I fear Irene is just the start of a pattern over the next five to 10 years that will lead to them. A southern drought and the return of the East Coast hurricane have been cornerstones in my longer-term ideas -- as well as the cooling that will be taking place, similar to the '60s and '70s, for several years now.

A reminder on those major storms that ran the East Coast in the 1950s:

bastardioct1

This season is not done yet as October looks active. My point is, it's NOT AS BAD AS IT WAS.

But what about the drought and heat we have heard all about? Well, keeping with theme that before the cooling of the '60s and '70s, the '50s was a rough decade, let's take a look at this.

The precipitation in the 1950s:

bastardioct1950s

Precipitation in the last 10 years -- including this year's drought:

bastardioct3

Precipitation in the last 25 years, the age of global-warming hysteria, when the Pacific was warm (It has just turned cool, like it did in the 1950s):

bastardioct4

Anyone telling you any supposed climate change is responsible for drought in the southern plains is a) ignorant of the facts, b) deceiving you, and/or c) unaware or won't acknowledge forecasts made for this based on natural elements of the weather. It's as deceptive as saying insurance costs are going up because of global warming.

Here in the east, Connie and Diane in 1955 were just as wet as Lee and Irene, for instance.

Getting back to Texas, let's look at the precipitation in the summer of 1954:

bastardioct5

How about this year?

bastardioct6

It actually looks worse in 1954. Point is, been there, done that, and part of the natural process, as even the Texas state climatologist is saying now. That will lead to widespread dryness in the south the next 10 years as the Pacific cools as it did in the 1950s.

All predictable, all part of the eternal circle of weather that makes up climate.

Recently, the president went after Rick Perry, the Texas governor, for his denial of climate change because of the drought this year in Texas. Apparently, the president did not see these maps here. Perhaps if you wish to keep him up to snuff on the actual data, you will e-mail him this article.

I also noticed that there has been no mention of some of these interesting extremes that have occurred in the past three weeks:

1. The coldest reading in the teens by more than two weeks at International Falls, Minn. -- a truly astounding event. It's one thing to beat something like that by a day, quite another by more than two weeks!

2. The earliest snow ever in parts of the Alps.

3. The earliest accumulating snow ever in the high ground of western Pennsylvania this past Sunday.

4. And over the last 10 years, the coldest temperatures we have seen at this time of the year in the mid-troposphere as measured by objective satellites.

Just so you know, there are other examples on the other side of the ledger. I won't go into the southern-hemisphere winter, which had temperatures reach freezing in the Brazilian coffee groves all three months for the first time ever, or the snows in New Zealand. That would be overkill.

None of it is proof, by the way, that I am right about this cooling trend, as we won't be able to say until we measure the temperatures over the next 20 years and see if the forecast for cooling back to where we were in the 1970s -- when we could get an objective eye trained on the globe via satellite -- is actually correct.

In the meantime, do not be shocked if one or two more tropical cyclones visit the U.S. coast before this is over (That happened in 1985, the last one being in mid-November).

Oh, and, by the way: A four- to seven-day period of perfect fall weather is on the way later this week into next, all part of Mother Nature's making up for her rudeness on Sunday with the big blobs of snow falling out of the air. She does have a tendency to do that, you know.

It's all part of nature. Aren't you glad you can observe it -- if you want to and people will let you?

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