Penn State Football: John Urschel Pens Story For ESPN The Magazine
John Urschel is already known as a wiz mathematician in the classroom and an NFL prospect on the gridiron, but he took his skill set to another level, writing an article for the upcoming edition of ESPN the Magazine.
In the article Urschel breaks down how you might be able to judge how early a lineman might be selected in the draft and how math might show that NFL Combine numbers aren't the only factor in finding a good lineman.
"I did have success determining the likelihood of a fringe prospect like me to be drafted," Urschel writes. "Two combine tests that proved statistically significant in doing this were the 40-yard dash and 20-yard shuttle. Focusing on the times of linemen taken outside the top 150 and those who weren't drafted, I produced a model that is a good predictor of being selected, with a concordance statistic (or c-stat) of nearly 75 percent. (The lowest possible c-stat is 50 percent, and any c-stat approaching 80 percent is highly reliable.)"
Urschel will get a chance to put that theory to the test this weekend at the NFL Combine where he will take part in various tests of strength and agility. Nittany Lions DaQuan Jones and Allen Robinson will also be joining Urschel at the event although they both will likely take a less statistical approach to the entire process.
The NFL Draft begins May 8.