STATE COLLEGE — The political polls and pundits were put to the test on Feb. 1 in Iowa’s quirky caucuses — the first voting event of the 2016 White House race.
While you have probably heard it is a landmark vote that many people and the media pay attention to, you are not the first to wonder what it is or why it matters all the way in Centre County.
What it is and how it works
Iowa has hosted the first electoral event of the presidential race since 1972, eight days before the county’s first primary takes place in New Hampshire, and it is as much of a tradition as anything.
In fact, the state does not actually send a lot of delegates to the national nominating conventions in July. Michael Berkman, a political science professor at Penn State who specializes in American state and local politics, said the caucuses give lesser-known and less-funded candidates the chance to campaign in a smaller, more accessible state.
“(The caucuses) have a nice ability to take someone who is unknown and propel them into national spotlight,” said Jared DeLof, political director at the Centre County Democratic Committee.
Think back to Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 Iowa caucus, which left many people scratching their heads wondering how this guy beat Hillary Clinton. Iowa boosted Obama’s campaign, putting him at the forefront of the race against Clinton for a nomination the two vied for until June.
So, the Iowa caucus has some power in momentum and changing the landscape of media coverage. But one question that lingers is, what differentiates a caucus from a primary?
Unlike primaries, in a caucus the polls are not open all day and it is not as easy as pulling a lever and going home in time for dinner.
Every year, Iowan caucus-goers meet at 1,681 precincts across the state’s 99 counties at 7 p.m. Unlike primaries, which are conducted by the state, the parties run caucuses. That means each party can set its own rules, making the Republican and Democrat caucuses different.
On the Republican side, voters who are willing to turn out on a weeknight listen to representatives for each candidate give a speech and then cast a secret ballot. Pretty easy, right?
Things get a little tricky for the Democrats. Attendees break off into groups based on whom they support, but each group must have at least 15 percent of the attendees to be considered “viable.” Uncommitted voters, who also divide off into their own group, and those in unviable groups must join other groups. Caucus-goers can convince others to change the candidate they support throughout the meeting, which can last up to two hours.
The results
Some answers did emerge in Iowa after Feb. 1 voting.
This first thing that became apparent is that a lot of Iowans do “feel the Bern” and actually did show up to caucus, which might have surprised Republicans and Clinton supporters.
However, Clinton did just slightly edge out Bernie Sanders in the total number of delegates awarded on Feb. 1. She is set to receive 23 of Iowa’s delegates, while Sanders will receive 21.
On the Republican side, Ted Cruz won big with almost 28 percent of the vote, which came as a surprise to Donald Trump, who came in second place with about 24 percent. Marco Rubio firmed up his support, coming in a solid third place with about 23 percent of the vote.
But winning the caucus does not guarantee a presidential nomination, especially for the Republicans. Take a look at 2013 and 2008, when Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee won the Republican caucuses, respectively. Neither ended up winning their party’s nomination.
“If you look back, the Republican winner doesn’t usually become the nominee and that is because the constituency is evangelical and conservative, so it elevates candidates that may not actually be able to do so well in a general election,” Berkman said.
And, the caucuses have received a good dose of criticism considering Iowa’s mostly rural population isn’t exactly representative of the U.S. and voting is held at 7 p.m. on a weekday making it difficult for some of the population, such as families, to skip dinner for a multi-hour meeting.
What it means for Pennsylvania, Centre County
Pennsylvania residents don’t go to the polls until April 26, but that is all the more reason to stay tuned in to other elections.
“Other states are picking our presidential candidates, so knowing what is going on in these states is of importance in terms of the choices that we will have come April 26,” Berkman said.
Berkman said that Rubio should start to get more media attention with his solid third-place finish in the Iowa caucus. That could help boost his campaign and put him in the race against Trump and Cruz.
“On the same token, the story changes for Trump a little bit,” Berkman said. “There was all this focus on what the polls were showing, but it turned out that it wasn’t really the case.”
If candidates are still competing for the nomination when Pennsylvania’s primary comes around, that could mean campaigning in the state. Berkman said he thinks the Democratic side will be decided very quickly. DeLof said he is more uncertain about the Republican side and predicts the race could go on for months to come.
“If the outcome of the primary process is still uncertain by the time our primaries are held April 26, we should see the candidates still in the race focusing on Pennsylvania interests,” Berkman said.
