EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Penn State’s offense turned just one of its 16 third downs into a first down against Syracuse here on Saturday.
That’s a conversation percentage rate of .063%. Worst in America.
Really. The Nittany Lions are all the way down there, at No. 112, just below Toledo (.0677), Louisiana-Monroe (.125), Wyoming (.125), Mississippi State (.125) and UAB (.143).
What a third-downer.
It certainly doesn’t help matters that the Nittany Lions averaged less than three yards on third down in their 23-17 season-opening victory over Syracuse in MetLife Stadium. Or that they averaged only a yard-and-a-half on 38 rushes.
Speaking historically — rather than hysterically – it was a desultory third-down performance in the same neighborhood of Penn State’s 1 of 13 third-down day in a 16-3 loss at Wisconsin in 2004, when Chris Ganter came in to QB after injuries to Michael Robinson and Zack Mills. And more recently, it’s close to the 2 of 10 conversion rates at Indiana in 2011 and Minnesota in 2010. (And if you are wondering about the nadir of the Paterno Era, the Iowa 6-to-4 Classic in Beaver Stadium in 2004, PSU was 4 of 16 on third downs that day.)
No matter, how you look at it, the Nittany Lions’ third-down efficiency was a far cry from its 2012 success of 43% or their 2011 (36%) and 2010 (42%) rates. For context, the worst third-down team in the FBS in 2012 was No. 120 Idaho (28.5%), while Texas A&M was No. 1, with a signature 54.9%.
Before we get too far, let’s remind you: Penn State won, and it did so with players dropping like flies, thanks to a gutsy and inspired performance — especially in the fourth quarter.
A RUN ON REASONS
Still, there myriad reasons for Penn State’s third-down failures against Syracuse. But a big one was that the Nittany Lions could not effectively run the football. Penn State rushed for just 57 yards vs. the Orangemen – with only two yards (on 17 carries) in the second half. Not counting a take-a-knee-er at game’s end, on third down Penn State ran the ball nine times and gained 10 yards. Total.
Seven of those rushes were by running back Zach Zwinak, a bruising 100-yard rusher in 2012. Three of the runs were up the middle, two to the right and two to the left. For five yards. Total. Zwinak’s carries came behind a veteran offensive line that has spent an average of 4.5 years at Penn State, with a combined 49 starts.
You gotta have a beef with the Beefy Guys and their coach, Big Mac McWhorter. That highly publicized group on the O line needs to control the line of scrimmage, just as Kipling said: “If you can keep your head when all about you … Are losing theirs and blaming it on you …”
If. Especially with a rookie quarterback.
“There were times when Syracuse knew we were going to run the ball,” O’Brien said. “I knew we were going to run it. Everybody in the stadium knew we were going to run it. But the goal was to win the game.”
Besides, we’re not talking massive down and distances, either. Five third downs were from either 1 yard out (three times) and 2 yards out (twice). The result? Zero yards. Total. A famous NFL offensive lineman liked to say that his favorite thing about football was exerting his will against someone who did not want to be moved.
Against Syracuse, operating with a freshman quarterback making his first career start – even one as talented as Christian Hackenberg, who was 22 of 31 for 278 yards, with two TDs and two picks — didn’t help open things for the rushing game. Syracuse’s defense, for the most part, focused on stopping the run and the phenom second. Of course, we are not telling O’Brien — who as offensive coordinator also calls the plays – anything he doesn’t know. He’s a smart guy.
“I was basing (our calls) on what I saw them do last year on third down, third and 5,” O’Brien said of the Syracuse defense, which was coached in 2012 by Scott Shafer, SU’s defensive coordinator last year and now its head coach. “I felt there was going to be a little more space and we had thrown the ball a high percentage of the time on third down last year.”
So, based on the past, O’Brien thought there was no time like the present to run the ball on third down: “I felt I might get two high safeties and I could stick a run in there and get six yards. That was more of the game-planning by me. And it didn’t work out too well.”
In defense of Penn State’s offense, it racked up 353 yards of total offense in a sweltering season opener that featured only the third true freshman PSU QB starting the opening game in 127 years. And Hackenberg played well, completing 71% of his passes and averaging 8.96 yards per attempt – a big chunk more than Matt McGloin’s 7.3 yards in 2012.
PICKY ON THIRD DOWN IN THE FOURTH QUARTER
However, Penn State’s worst third down came at the hand of Hackenberg, with an assist from O’Brien. With 7:01 left in the game, and Penn State ahead, 23-10, Hackenberg threw an interception straight into the hands of Syracuse defensive end Robert Welsh, who slid back into pass coverage. Welsh returned the pick 31 yards to the Penn State 1, and the Orange scored a touchdown on the very next play to pull within 23-17.
“Hindsight being 20/20, I put Christian in a bad situation there,” O’Brien said. “I have to review that. He made a mistake, but I put him in that position. I have to coach that better with those guys. It was a great call by them. I’m sure Christian’s never seen that in a live game. I have to do a better job.”
Hackenberg threw the ball on seven third downs – completing four, while also drawing a pass interference penalty on a fifth (which does not count toward the 1 of 16 figure).
So often these things are dependent on down and distance, field position, winning or losing, momentum, run or pass, etc. None of that seemed to matter for Penn State:
— Four of the third downs came when the game was tied 0-0. Three came when Penn State was trailing 3-0. And the other nine came with Penn State leading.
— Five of the third downs came on Syracuse’s side of the field (the 24, 34, 36 and 41 yard lines) and 11 came on Penn State’s own end – 50 or more yards from the goal line. Of those 11, on average PSU was on its own 29-yard line on third down (the 14, 19, 20, 24, 26, 30, 30, 34, 34, 35 and 50 yard lines).
— Half of the third downs came from six or less yards out – 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 5 and 6.
Bottom-line, in addition to needing to run the ball more effectively, the poor third-down numbers also indicate the problems began sooner than that. On Saturday, Penn State came to the line 16 times on third down and, on average, needed 5.9 yards to make a first down. Now that’s a different story – literally.
But, let’s on finish two high notes:
1. Penn State was 2 of 2 on fourth-down conversions — tied for No. 1 with 26 teams.
2. On Penn State’s second drive of the game, when the Nittany Lions faced a third-and-1 from their own 20. Hackenberg dropped back, and on the fifth pass of his college career, connected with wide receiver Matt Zanellato for three yards.
It was a first down.
