The summer in Central Pennsylvania has been mostly warm and dry — enough so that Centre County and 33 other counties were placed on a drought watch this week. The fall doesn’t look like it will bring much relief.
AccuWeather released its U.S. fall forecast — covering Sept. 1 to Nov. 30 — this week, and long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said that Centre County, like much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, likely will continue to see mild temperatures and dry conditions continue into the autumn months.
The region hasn’t quite seen long dry spells over a widespread area, but rather some places just miss out on a storm, while others get a heavy downpour followed by nearly a week without rain.
‘That’s the kind of dry periods we’re seeing here in Central Pennsylvania, and I think that continues on all the way into at least the middle of the fall season,’ he said. ‘Dry conditions are still going to be a problem in some areas.’
Going into the autumn months, residents will have to be careful with outdoor burning and keep a close eye on wells and how much water is available.
‘We have to be cautious because we don’t see any significant wet periods coming forward — just a few brief ones that may bring in rain, but they may not be enough,’ Pastelok said.
Temperatures and precipitation are expected to be similar to last fall, with a 2 to 3 degree departure from average over the three months. Precipitation may be slightly down from last year. But last fall, cooler temperatures and storm fronts moved in to the region in October. This year, Pastelok doesn’t see that happening until November.
‘You can expect September and October to be very similar… still rather dry, rather mild and more mild days than cool days,’ he explained. ‘At this point I don’t see anything out of the ordinary as far as early frost or early snow. Because it’s dry, the night (temperatures) could fall off quicker in the mid-fall. I don’t see anything as far as arctic blasts or snow in the near future.’
In addition to concerns about water supply and the dangers of consistent dry weather, another drawback of the continued weather pattern is the effect on fall foliage in the region and across the Northeast.
After a dry summer, when trees aren’t getting sufficient rain in August and September and the angle of the sun begins to go down, their leaves get more brown and dry out. When that happens, a single cold front or storm can cause the leaves to fall before they’ve reached their traditional autumnal colors.
‘I think what’s going to happen is the leaves may start falling early, especially if we get a couple of fronts early in the season,’ Pastelok said. ‘They may not be as vibrant because of the dryness.’
It’s not all bad news though. For farmers, the trend could have its benefits, with the dryer weather making it easier to harvest and for both sellers and patrons to enjoy harvest festivals.
And it may extend the opportunity to get to those summer projects you have been putting off.
‘The good thing is, if you have outdoor projects planned you have opportunities and time to do it because we’re not really seeing any early snow or significant cold coming our way,’ Pastelok said.
