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Penn State Football: 5 Things to Watch as the Nittany Lions Face Michigan State

Penn State heads to East Lansing this weekend with a chance to pick up win No. 8 on the year against a Michigan State team that has lost two of its last three. A win would help the Nittany Lions’ bowl destination and double last season’s win total after a wild 4-5 COVID year.

At this point of the season the Nittany Lions are who they are, but they’re also better than their record. Can a healthy Sean Clifford and company make it three straight against Michigan State and two straight in East Lansing? Here are five keys to keep an eye on.

Air It Out:

Michigan State boasts – if such a thing is to be bragged about – the worst passing defense in the country and by default the worst passing defense in the Big Ten. It’s fairly remarkable when you consider how good of a year Michigan State has had. Perhaps, though, it’s a bit less surprising when you consider how many points Ohio State put on the Spartans last weekend (56). By the numbers Michigan State allows 339 yards per game through the air, nearly 80 more yards per game than the next closest Big Ten team (sorry Maryland.)

Michigan State has also allowed nearly 100 more completions than the next closest Big Ten team, Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have given up 1,000 fewer yards through the air than Michigan State. Penn State heads into the weekend as the fifth best passing attack in the Big Ten. Michigan State’s rushing defense is 25th in the nation, so the Spartans will lean on that a bit if Penn State tries to get the ground game going in the final week of the season.

Hit Them While They’re Down:

Michigan State had Big Ten title and playoff hopes, and then Ohio State came calling and put up 49 first half points on the Spartans. The Spartans have had a few close calls all year, nearly losing to Michigan, nearly losing to Nebraska in overtime, winning a close game against Indiana. They also got blown out by Purdue on the road. Point being, Michigan State is a perfectly fine team, but they’ve been through a lot — especially in recent weeks. The same could be said for Penn State, but the Nittany Lions saw their playoff hopes die a month ago and have long made their peace with that. Michigan State finds itself at that same inflection point: care or pack it in? If Penn State can jump out ahead early, how will the Spartans respond?

Make the Tackle:

Kenneth Walker III is a bad, bad man. The nation’s No. 2 rusher has racked up 1,498 yards on the ground to the tune of 136 yards per game. Michigan State is going to give Penn State plenty to think about between the tackles and Walker will give the Nittany Lions plenty of Thanksgiving leftovers in the process. The Nittany Lions had some chances to get Michigan off the field a few weeks ago and missed tackles did them in. On Saturday, it could be that all over again as Penn State looks to limit Walker’s impact on the game. He’s too good to simply stop, but you don’t have to give him lots of yards after contact, especially if the contact is solid. Sometimes the key to a game isn’t that hard to say — “tackle the good player” — but that doesn’t make it easy to do. Penn State’s rush defense is No. 35 in the nation, perhaps a bit better than it gets credit for. The Nittany Lions’ 3.48 yards per carry is actually No. 22 in the nation. Only four teams have given up fewer rushing touchdowns than Penn State.

One Last Chance:

Saturday will be the fifth game Penn State has played this year against a team currently ranked in the Top 25 and the fourth game this season against a team that was once ranked or is currently ranked inside the Top 5 (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State). The Nittany Lions’ win over Wisconsin in Week 1 feels like a million years ago but so far proves to be the best ranked win of the season for Penn State. Ending the year on the road with a win over a stumbling ranked team certainly wouldn’t hurt the Nittany Lions’ momentum any and would validate a certain degree of “finally” for a team that has been so close all year. Is there a chip on the shoulder to finally get over that hump?

Off Schedule:

Michigan State and Penn State are fairly similar third down teams which is good news and bad news for the Nittany Lions. On the one hand Penn State is converting 38.9% of its attempts on third down, on the other hand Michigan State is converting just 38.4%. Getting the Spartans off schedule could go a long way toward winning on Saturday and that’s where Penn State has the advantage. On third down the Nittany Lions are letting their opponents convert 35.2% of the time which is 32nd best in the nation. Michigan State is allowing conversions on 41.49% of all third down attempts which is 93rd in the nation.

The challenge: getting stops behind the line. Michigan State has given up 60 tackles for a loss this year, 47th in the nation, whereas Penn State has given up 79, 114th in the country. The Spartans have also only allowed 18 sacks all year.