Penn State has played 600 minutes of football so far in 2021. That’s enough time to get a sense of who the Nittany Lions are and what they are all about.
It has been an up and down season — on and off the field — and their 6-4 record is testament to that. Some trends have been consistent. Like running backs not gaining many yards, with nary a runner having a 100-yard game in 2021. And like Jahan Dotson catching football after football after football.
Here is a closer look at what we’ve seen so far in 2021 and perhaps an explanation or two as to why things have broken the way they have this season for James Franklin’s team.
1. Penn State’s running game has been on a decline for quite some time — at least when it comes to yards gained by the running backs.
When measuring the PSU rushing attack solely on carries by running backs, Penn State’s running game peaked with Saquon Barkley & Co. in 2017. Since that 2017 season, when Penn State running backs averaged 6.12 yards per carry, output by PSU running backs has dropped precipitously. In 2021, Penn State running backs (not counting rushes by QBs) are averaging 3.60 yards per carry — a huge drop of 2.5 yards per carry over the past five years. Granted, of course, replacing Saquon ain’t easy.
I got the following numbers by taking out all carries and rushing yards by a Penn State quarterback from the season-ending statistics. These numbers are for running backs only:
Att. Yards Ave.
2021 252 905 3.60
2020 221 974 4.40
2019 348 1,864 5.35
2018 318 1,751 5.51
2017 280 1,531 6.12
2016 373 1,843 4.94
2. Penn State’s 2021 schedule is the fourth-toughest in the country, according to the NCAA.
Nittany Lions’ 2021 opponents, past and future, have a combined winning percentage of 65.8% this season, with an overall record of 73-38. Only Boise State (67.6%), Indiana (67.3%) and Georgia Tech (66.7%) face a tougher slate.
That strength of schedule is bolstered by three teams that are 9-1 — Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. Villanova is 8-2, and the cross-over Big Ten West Division troika of Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois is a combined 19-11. Auburn is 6-4.
3. Penn State is having a big year at the Beaver Stadium box office.
Though there have been scatterings of empty seats in Beaver Stadium (and there will likely be a lot more on Saturday for the Rutgers game), through six home games Penn State is selling tickets — and packing in the fans – better than almost anyone else in college football this season. (The following numbers are for tickets sold, not necessarily fans who attended.)
Penn State ranks No. 2 in average home attendance (106,572), right behind Michigan (107,601). Penn State ranks No. 4 in percentage of capacity (100.33%), which is not dependent on stadium size. Texas A&M, with an average of 102,733 (100.9%), is No. 1, followed by Michigan (100.71%) and Utah (51,444, 100.42%).
The Penn State-Auburn game, which PSU won 28-20 in a Whiteout on Sept. 18, had the highest attendance (109,958) of all college football games in 2021. The Penn State-Michigan game (109,534) ranks No. 4. All six of Penn State’s home games are in the Top 14, while Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus ranks No. 16 (102,951).
Penn State will not set a Beaver Stadium home attendance mark in 2021; the record is an average of 108,917 in 2007. But, its average of 106,572 is close to the highest average attendance since 2009, which is 106,707 in 2017. Heading into Saturday’s game, Penn State is averaging 894 more tickets sold per game than it did in 2019.
4. Kickoff returns are a thing of the past — at least at Penn State.
Opponents have returned only one Penn State kickoff out of the 53 times that Jordan Stout has kicked off in 2021. That was an 11-yard return by Maryland’s Rakim Jarrett. Stout has had 48 touchbacks and one kickoff go out of bounds.
Conversely, Penn State’s deep backs on kickoffs – Devyn Ford and John Lovett – have typically called for a fair catch on a kickoff that is not a touchback, playing it safe and ensuring the Nittany Lions get the ball on the 25-yard line. Overall, Penn State ranks No. 125 out of 130 teams nationally on kickoff return average (15.3 yards) and 120 teams have returned more kickoffs than the 10 by Penn State this year.
Oh, for the days of Saquon taking it to the house (as he did here, in The Horseshoe.)
5. Linebacker Ellis Brooks is going to lead Penn State in tackles for the second consecutive season.
The senior linebacker from Virginia has been a mature and steady presence on a strong Nittany Lion defense the past two seasons. He had a career-high 16 tackles against Michigan last week, and despite playing with a hand injury for several weeks, has a team-high 85 tackles (49 solo, 36 assists) in 2021. Fellow LB Brandon Smith is second, with 71 tackles. Brooks led the Nittany Lions in tackles in 2020 as well, with 60.
Brooks is averaging 8.5 tackles per game. If he hits his average for three more games (two regular season, one bowl), he’ll finish with 109 tackles, placing him just out of the Top 20 for most tackles in a Penn State season.
6. Penn State’s defense is getting fewer sacks than usual and Penn State QB Sean Clifford is getting sacked more than usual, especially lately.
The days of the Wild Dogs and Coach Chaos are long gone. The sacking that Hack endured is now within earshot. Clifford was sacked nine times in Penn State’s first six games. The last four games, he has been was sacked 18 times — the worst by Michigan, which sacked him seven times for 44 yards.
Line play in the trenches wins and loses games. Here’s a look at Penn State’s sacks during the James Franklin Era:
Sacks by PSU D Sacks Allowed
2021 20 27
2020 21 28
2019 45 32
2018 47 31
2017 42 29
2016 40 24
2015 46 39
2014 31 44
7. Jahan Dotson has been catching a lot of footballs.
Dotson has 80 receptions for 993 yards and nine TDs. His 8.0 catches per game is No. 5 in all of major college football. Jumping to third is possible. Here are the top four: Jerreth Sterns, Western Kentucky (11.1); Drake London, USC (11.0); David Bell, Purdue (8.3); and Josh Downs, North Carolina (8.2).
Dotson’s 80 grabs rank No. 3 on the Penn State single-season list, trailing only Allen Robinson (97, 2013) and DaeSean Hamilton (82, 2014). He could finish his PSU career second in most receiving yards in a season. Ahead of Dotson are Robinson (1,018, 2012), Bobby Engram (1,029, 1994), Engram (1,084, 1995), Chris Godwin (1,101, 2015) and Robinson at No. 1 (1,432, 2013).
8. The Penn State defense has been on the field a long time in 2021.
The Nittany Lions’ defense ranks No. 11 in most plays defended in 2021, with an average of 75 per game. High was Wisconsin, with 95 plays, and low was Indiana, with 58. That time on the field is compounded by the fact that Penn State’s offense does not hold onto the ball very long. The Nittany Lions rank No. 107 in time of possession, at 28:15.
9. So you have it handy: Here is a brief look at James Franklin’s current compensation at Penn State:
There’s a lot of talk lately about Franklin’s current compensation, the potential of a renegotiated — and longer — contract and what the terms of his contract buyout are, should he leave Penn State. His current contract, signed in February 2020, just weeks before the pandemic hit, runs through Dec. 31, 2025. If he wants out of it by Dec. 31, 2021, he’ll have to pay Penn State $4 million; from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2022, the buyout will be $3 million.
These are the numbers for Franklin’s 2021 contract year (his guaranteed compensation goes up $250,000 in 2022), as previously released by Penn State:
Guaranteed compensation: $5.5 million
Bonus paid on Dec. 31, 2021: $500,000
Bonus for bowl appearance: $200,000
Car allowance: $10,000
Personal use-private aircraft: 50 hours
Annual loan: cash available on $1 million insurance policy
Franklin pays PSU a buyout if he leaves on/before Dec. 31, 2021: $4 million
Franklin pays PSU a buyout if he leaves Jan. 1, 2022 or later: $3 million
PSU pays Franklin if he is terminated by Dec. 31, 2021: $26 million
PSU pays Franklin if he is terminated Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2022: $20.25 million
