Last Week:
Coming off a bye week the Wildcats most recently upended Nebraska by a slim 30-28 margin to hand the Cornhuskers their fifth loss by five or fewer points on the year. The victory stopped a two-game losing skid that saw Northwestern go from 5-0 on the year to 5-2 and scoring just 10 points over the losing streak. A 38-0 loss to Michigan on the road followed by a 40-10 defeat by Iowa in Chicago. Northwestern made early season news knocking off Stanford 16-6 to open the year but since then really only a 27-0 win over Minnesota stands out. Either way, Northwestern picked up a No. 21 ranking in the first College Football Playoff Top 25 of the year this week.
The Offense:
As quarterback Clayton Thorson goes so too do the Wildcast. With 11 TDs to his name, six have come through the air and five more with his feet. This would be just another stat if not for the fact Northwestern only has 14 scores to its name on offense. Receiver Dan Vitale takes credit for the final three touchdowns to round out the scoring. With 1119 yards to his name this year through the air, Thorson has been the engine that keeps Northwestern moving forward. Justin Jackson helps carry the load a bit with 731 rushing yards and round out the three man team of Thorson, Vitale and Jackson doing most of the work on offense. The good news for Northwestern, the Wildcats have given up just 13 sacks all year. The bad news, Penn State leads the nation in sacks.
The Defense:
Like most Pat Fitzgerald teams, Northwestern is once again a solid defensive squad. While ranked 104th in scoring on offense, the Wildcats comes in at No. 18 giving up just 17.6 points a game. Linebacker Anthony Walker gets the job done for the Wildcats, leading the team with 67 tackles, 19 more than the next closest player. Walker and defensive lineman Dean Lowrey both have 10.5 tackles for a loss to their name while Deonte Gibson leads the squad with five sacks on the year.
With just three passing scores on the year it has been the ground game that has found the endzone for Northwestern opponents to the tune of 11 scores on the ground. Opponents only convert 31% of their third down attempts but 47% of their four downs with seven successful tries so far this season.
The Player To Watch:
If Penn State can keep Thorson in check this game is the Nittany Lions’ to lose. A stout Northwestern defense won’t making scoring easy, but the Wildcats don’t bring a lot of offensive diversity to the table. If Penn State can score first for the 11th straight game the Nittany Lions will be well on their way towards the upset. If Thorson gets going Vitale will be the man to cover down field and Jackson on the ground as he approaches 1,000 yards on the campaign. End of the day though, it’s no secret who does the most damage to opposing teams.
The Prediction:
Penn State can win this game and will probably find a way to do so. A victory puts the Nittany Lions at 8-2 on the year heading in the final two contests of the regular season. More importantly heading into the long awaited bye week. This will be the usual slugfest Penn State and Northwestern put on, but the Nittany Lions are playing their best football of the year right now and have more answers to each of Northwestern’s threats.
24-10 Penn State
