Looking to go 5-0 for the first time since 2008 and the 9th time since 1990, Penn State enters Saturday’s contest against Northwestern with plenty of forward momentum. The Wildcats on the other hand have won only 2 out of their last 9 games dating back to the 2013 season and have continued to struggle with losses to California and Northern Illinois this year.
Struggling teams can often be the most deadly if taken too lightly, but Penn State appears to be a focused and capable team despite plenty of their own issues. Does that mean a Homecoming win for James Franklin and company? The stars certainly seem to be in their favor. And with a program 68-21-5 record in Homecoming games, history is in their favor as well.
But as always, they have to play the game.
Last Week:
Northwestern looked to be on the rope agains last week against Western Illinois after the first quarter ended in a 7-7 tie. The Wildcats found enough offense to take care of business in the long haul though turning a 14-7 halftime lead into a 24-7 victory. Not an overly impressive performance for Northwestern, but an important first win for a Wildcat team that hasn’t done much winning the past two years. Quarterback Trevor Siemian went 15-of-25 for 117 against Western Illinois and leads the team 614 yards passing on the year. Justin Jackson has led the way on the ground for Northwestern but has only totaled less than 200 yards on the ground this year, no better than Penn State’s own struggling ground attack.
The Good:
Northwestern has finally won and sometimes that’s all a struggling team needs to get things on the right track. With two receivers in double digit catches and both with 54 yard touchdown receptions the Wildcats have at least shown in brief bursts an ability to get down the field. The Wildcats have only let up 30 or more points once this season at an average of 20.3 per game, a mark ranked 38th best in the nation (although Northwestern has played only three games on the year.)
The Bad:
Northwestern isn’t very good. They try hard but they aren’t very good. Siemian has moved the ball through the air to the tune of 228 yards a game. That figure isn’t horrible, but it could be a lot better with a ground game that is essentially non existent. In that vein the Wildcats average 115 yards on the ground which ranks 106th in the nation. Northwestern’s best asset is its defense but even that has struggled to completely keep teams off the board.
The Player To Watch:
It almost always boils down to quarterback play and that will be the case for Northwestern. If Siemian can find his targets and find the mark he could give Penn State a run for its money. If Northwestern has to rely on defense and the ground game to get things going it could be a long afternoon for the Wildcats. Penn State’s weakness is its pass defense but Siemian hasn’t shown a real ability to light up defenses on the consistent basis. So this really comes down to the Wildcats going as Siemian goes.
The Prediction:
Penn State isn’t consistent but Northwestern isn’t very good. Christian Hackenberg should be able to throw the ball against a team that isn’t prone to rushing the passer and that could spell trouble for Northwestern. Assuming the Nittany Lions’ rather dominating defense shows up to play this game will be as close for as long as the Wildcats can hang around. If Hackenberg starts off hot it could be a 2 score game by the half. If he starts like he did against UMass it may take 3 full quarters to get away from Northwestern. Overall though it’s hard to imagine anything but a Penn State win unless the Nittany Lions continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
Penn State wins 31-14
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