Penn State Football: Three Games Will Help Define Season, But Staying Power Already There

I think about Michigan State a lot. Not so much the perpetual rain but rather where that program was not long ago.

In 2015 the Spartans made the College Football Playoff, losing 38-0 to Alabama in a game that was even more lopsided than the final score. Since then Michigan State has posted a 24-22 record and, aside from a few upsets of Penn State and feisty punches thrown at Ohio State, the Spartans have never held the form they had from 2010-2015.

The “why” is not nearly as important as the lessons to be learned about reaching the upper levels of the college football world, only to crash back down to Earth.

For one, college football is really a competition centered around staying-power. With the playoffs only taking four teams per season, the room for mistakes is small, and the opportunity for things to happen out of your control is high. Take Penn State’s 2016 season for example. You could make an argument for the Nittany Lions in the playoffs, and as it turned out, you could make an argument for Ohio State as well. In the broadest sense this was out of Penn State’s control by the time the decision was made.

The window was there, but then life happened.

And then Penn State followed that up with the 2017 season — successful, but with just enough self-inflicted wounds to keep a legitimate title contender out of the race. 2018 was a transition season, but a 9-4 record following so many key departures was hardly a dramatic drop off the cliff.

In 2019 the window is there again for Penn State. At 8-0 the Nittany Lions effectively control their own road to the playoffs, and wins over Minnesota and Indiana would set up a monumental clash with Ohio State. Penn State would need to beat Rutgers to close out the regular season theoretically undefeated.

If we’re being perfectly honest it’s easy to see Penn State giving Ohio State a run for its money, but it’s hard to picture the Nittany Lions as the smart pick in the game. This has nothing to do with Penn State and everything to do with a Buckeye team absolutely loaded with talent, confidence and the advantage of playing at home. If nothing else, the tie goes to the home team. The determining factor in the game might be something Penn State can’t control.

So let’s say Penn State loses that game. As it stands today a trip to the Rose Bowl feels like the most natural outcome and wouldn’t really match what anyone expected just a few months ago. The Nittany Lions would once again hit a double-digit win total for the third time in four years.

It’s fair to say that averaging out 10+ wins feels like a lot of success for so little hardware, but that’s where staying power comes into play.

Look at Oklahoma, a very good program that wins its conference on a regular basis, has Heisman contenders and one of the more enjoyable offenses in the country to watch.

But has Oklahoma really done wildly better than Penn State over the past few years? The conference titles comparison is difficult to make, given the nature of the Big Ten East, and yes Oklahoma made the playoffs, but then the Sooners promptly lost.

So in terms of accomplishments, we can split hairs and give the nod to the Sooners, but Oklahoma has only made it one step further than Penn State to the biggest prize in the land and then came up short.

The objective here isn’t to compare the programs but rather emphasize an overall point: Oklahoma, Clemson, Alabama and a take-your-pick between LSU and Georgia have done something Penn State is closing in on as well: They haven’t exited the national conversation, and that’s really the most important thing in today’s world of college football.

None of this is to say James Franklin and his staff are above being critiqued or that Penn State’s weekly or quarterly hiccups and flaws shouldn’t be pointed out.

The point is simply this: the mark of a quality, elite, nationally relevant program isn’t whether or not it always passes through the window into the playoffs, but rather the ability to be present each time it opens.

And for Penn State the argument could be made that it has arrived at this point, the Nittany Lions look to be a program capable of overcoming roster changes, staff changes and institutional obstacles and still find themselves in the national conversation. In many ways this is far more important towards reaching the program’s longterm goals.

The next three games will define what Penn State’s season can become, but it won’t change the fact the Nittany Lions are still knocking on the window and should still be there in the immediate future if that window opens for them again. That won’t change, no matter what happens in Minneapolis, State College or Columbus.