While driving to my State College office and listening to my Sirius satellite radio, I heard reported on CNBC that Amazon was slated to become the world’s largest seller of clothing, displacing Macy’s. Twenty years ago Amazon wasn’t on anyone’s radar and Macy’s was the flagship of American retailing.
Of course, 20 years ago, Google was nowhere to be found, Apple was suffering mightily before Steve Jobs returned, and Microsoft had passed its prime. GoPro, Ambarella and Uber didn’t yet exist. Eastman Kodak was still a respected household name. Now there are more cameras in phones than there are standalone cameras. Film photography is used primarily as art form and most images are kept digitally. As a senior citizen who drives a pickup truck, I fervently hope that reliable self-driving vehicles arrive before the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation decides that I am no longer fit to drive on Pennsylvania’s highways and byways.
Things are changing rapidly in the practices and procedures of everyday things.
Some of these changes involve the economy and the investment markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages were created back in the late 1800s, and there is only one of those original companies that still exists in today’s Dow Jones Average. We’ll get back to what that company is, but so much for “buy and hold” investing, not to mention the “if it was good enough for my parents it is good enough for my portfolio” approach.
Really long term investing currently involves only about 20 years. The scale of change is accelerating, as is the rate of change. We have gone from whale oil lamps to LEDs in less than 200 years. Thanks to fiber optic cable (like that running along route 45 in Centre County) some traders invest only for a few seconds, then sell and move on to something else.
Even at my rustic, rural “getaway” property on Little Pine Creek we have satellite television, DSL lines from Verizon and the resultant Wi-Fi in our rental cabins as well as cell phone extenders.
Of course, the only way to get away anymore is to turn off your cell phone. I haven’t moved beyond my old Motorola flip phone simply because I am not interested in staying connected by text or internet on my phone. I’d rather mow the lawn.
What does hold my interest however, are the vast array of medical developments including minimally invasive heart surgery for valve replacements and the like. Despite the glacial pace of medical development adoption (because doctors and regulators change more slowly than we individuals adopt personal technologies), massive changes in healthcare are imminent including another big jump in life expectancies.
It was only two hundred forty years ago that we created the beginnings of the country we all take for granted with the Declaration of Independence. That primitive stab at expanding human rights helped open the door to technological innovation and its acceleration. It hasn’t slowed since.
Millennials and Generation Z are glued to their cell phones communicating with people who are not physically near them…. and sometimes even when they’re right next to one another! Everyday stuff to them is vastly different from what was considered “everyday” to me back in the sixties.
Change offers both opportunity and risk. If you pay attention, you will begin to see that what is unfolding before us holds a wealth of opportunity. As I have often said before, investing is a matter of paying attention and then making changes to your portfolio. So it is with life.
Did you guess the name of the company still on the Dow Jones Industrial Average? It’s General Electric.
Nothing contained in this article should be interpreted as a promise or guarantee of earnings or investment results nor a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security or sector.
