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The Gathering Clouds of War, Redux

State College - dv144026
Dan Nestlerode

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About a year ago I wrote a piece for StateCollege.com with the same title as this column.

Now that nearly a year has gone by, I can report on the developments that make the future look even more perilous than it was in 2014.

It would seem that our standing in the world and the peace and stability in the world are deteriorating at a rapid pace.

Keep in mind that I am not a military analyst or a diplomat or an expert on foreign policy. I am an investment person looking at the risks in the world and connecting the dots to our ongoing investment strategy. Others might have a different opinion, yet all will likely agree that the world is a more dangerous place in 2015 than it was in 2014. So what is going on?

The war against ISIS/ISIL continues with apparently half-hearted efforts put forth by the United States. We have no boots on the ground, and apparently never will under this presidency. We are doing a handful of air strikes daily, yet the territory held by ISIS has doubled in Syria since we decided they were a threat. Over 200,000 people have died in Syria since the civil war began and ISIS is a big part of this conflict.

We continue to release enemy leaders and soldiers from the Guantanamo Bay facility, in one case in trade for an American traitor. While we seem to have some assurances that these folks won’t reenter the conflict, we have no guarantees. Meanwhile, the beheadings continue, the latest being two Japanese citizens and one Jordanian.

In Africa, Boko Haram continues to kidnap people and burn villages and cause great damage in the name of Islam. While the French journalists were being killed in Paris for offending Allah, over 2,000 lives were taken in Nigeria, a major supplier of oil to the free world. On the Saudi peninsula, Yemen fell to the Houthi rebels, apparently ending that country’s alignment with us in finding and destroying rebel bases and giving al-Qaeda a greater foothold. A whole country, lost to terrorists. Then you might remember that Iraq is essentially divided into the old Iraq and the sizable portion controlled by ISIS.

If this is not enough bloodshed for you, there is the continued aggression by Russia against Ukraine, a country they’ve signed several treaties with: the CSCE in 1975, the Budapest Memo in 1994 and the Treaty of Friendship as recently as 1997. I guess treaties don’t matter if you can bully your neighbors. In addition to the destruction of a commercial airliner and death of its passengers, this conflict has experienced a recent sharp surge in civilian casualties. There seems to be little effective consequences for this aggression as the Russian-backed rebels continue to expand their operations.

Meanwhile, back here in the USA we continue to shrink our military, cutting the budget as the world gets more dangerous. Whether you like it or not, the United States is the cop on the global stage that keeps the world peaceful. As we withdraw and become more insular, armed conflict or war seems to fester on an even wider stage. If the U.S. has gone “off-duty” as world policeman, who will effectively take its place?

Lastly, we continue to negotiate with Iran regarding its nuclear program, but no one is talking about their ICBM capabilities. If the Iranians are able to marry their rockets with a crude nuclear weapon, the world becomes significantly more dangerous. Iran already feeds the flames of anti-Israel activity through a number of terrorist organizations. I guess we have until June 30th, the latest deadline, to see what happens. Meanwhile Iran continues to fund the likes of Hezbollah and Hamas.

From the mid-80’s to the early 1990’s, Ronald Reagan (and later, George H. W. Bush) and Mikhail Gorbachev worked together to effectively end the cold war with the old Soviet Union. Many hot spots remain in the world. It is time for world leaders to once again join forces and change the world into a more peaceful and prosperous place for the citizens of war-torn nations. This kind of cooperative, decisive action just might require US boots on the ground.

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