When I started writing this column, I recognized the reality that between the time this was a rough draft and the time it was posted it was likely that the President would tweet something that becomes breaking news. In fact in those 24 hours a story erupted involving Donald Trump, Jr. and the Russians.
You can almost set your watch by the President’s tweet storms and the reactions from people defending him to people talking about impeachment. But for Democrats reveling in the nearly constant chaos, whether these social media storms are calculated or accidental, it is a trap.
The politics of this country are won by people with a long-term outlook, the big picture built on details. If this were baseball there is one team wanting to hit the big home run and declare victory while the other team keeps bunting, stealing and manufacturing wins, playing from state house politics on up.
What the Trump presidency has created for Democrats is “White House Envy.” The White House is the ego piece of politics — the easiest power grab. You win the states resulting in the right number of electoral votes and your party controls one of the three branches of government.
But only Congress can make laws, and can control the purse strings.
The enduring power of Congress flows from each state legislative district through governors and to Washington. Congressional power is dictated to Washington by how the party in power at the start of each decade in your state draws districts.
So where does the Trump Trap come in?
It is a distraction, plain and simple. While Democrats focus on trying to tear down the president, the real politics of this country go on unnoticed.
There is an old saying “Pick your fights.”
The president tweets about Fake News. The president says offensive things on Twitter.
Get angry all you want, but it is not a fight that you’ll win.
Does anyone believe the president will really suffer any consequences with his own party in control of Congress? Why hope in vain for that which will never happen?
The real question for Democrats is, why do the Republicans have control of Congress?
It is not because more people voted for Trump. More people cast votes for Hillary Clinton, and more votes were cast overall for Democrats for Congress than for Republicans. But that’s not the way the game is played.
The rules are not secret and are well-established. You argue about unfairness, but if you know the rules yet choose to play by a different set with different expectations don’t cry when it is all over.
So where is the Democratic Party right now? Chasing shiny objects. They talk about impeachment or retaking the House in 2018. They spent millions of dollars in special elections trying to win seats that skewed very Republican. Meanwhile big GOP donor money is now going into state political races, and that is no accident.
The Republicans outflanked Democrats by taking on the work that isn’t sexy. They focused on winning state elections with a base that turns out more consistently to win governorships, and state house seats. Those elections determine who sets the lines of power using available technology to draw districts house by house. Parties can pick their voters more precisely than the voters can pick their candidates.
If the Democratic Party is serious about its future, it would be wise to focus on street-level fundamentals that lead to enduring success rather than focusing on Trump. Messaging does matter but messages are moving targets with each election.
The long-term ground game will not be won by toppling the president. It will be playing small ball to connect with people who believe what you believe with enough passion to turn out and vote in state elections.
For all the talk about retaking the House in 2018, the Democratic National Committee should be thinking about 2020 vision– not the 2020 White House race but in every gubernatorial and state house election between now and then.
Control of governorships and state houses after the 2020 elections will decide how the power is allocated and sent to Washington. Like it or not, that is the way this game is won and lost.
Outrage at the president and wishing for a new president in 2020 only changes one office for a short time.
If Democrats hope to make lasting change, temporary marches and resistance must translate into building at the real source of Congressional power; rock foundations built with voters street by street.
Democrats must avoid the Trump Trap’s bait. It is a distraction that is wasting time and losing focus on real issues. It diverts resources and attention from the real battles for the headwaters of power that flow from the states into Washington.
Those headwaters also pour forth the current of political division in Washington. While society is distracted by the president’s clownish tweets, only long-lasting and meaningful engagement at division’s root cause will ever make that change.
