It’s a question of expectations.
Because if you start to unpack Penn State’s future schedules the enormity of it all becomes more and more clear. In 2024 it’s USC, Ohio State, Washington and Wisconsin. In 2025 it’s Iowa, Ohio State, UCLA and Oregon. In 2026 it’s Michigan, Washington, USC and Wisconsin. In 2027 it’s Oregon, Washington and Michigan. In 2028 it’s Ohio State, Oregon and USC.
Each and every year Penn State will play multiple games that could arguably be the hardest game on the schedule. Each and every year Penn State will play a game that could very well have been the toughest game on the schedule if Penn State was in the now defunct PAC-12 as well as the toughest game on the schedule in the traditional Big Ten.
It puts into perspective how hard winning is going to get in a bloated Big Ten that will dominate the TV ratings but could also cannibalize itself throughout the course of the year. The conference isn’t in any danger of not sending multiple teams to the expanded playoffs, but when Penn State contemplated a life in which beating Ohio State would no longer be a mandatory prerequisite for getting into the expanded field, it likely never imagined Ohio State or Michigan simply being substituted out for other equally challenging programs.
Of course how well the westward schools adjust to the change remains to be seen. Washington and USC are both finding success in 2023 because of dueling Heisman relevant quarterbacks that won’t be in college this time next year. Oregon for its part is well-coached but is a program built on as much flash and branding as it is anything else. That’s not to say the Ducks can’t and won’t find success in the Big Ten, just that it won’t be an effortless transition for any of the new faces in the conference. That being said, it’s hard to imagine any of those three programs struggling to find success in the long term.
All of this begs the question of what success should look like for Penn State in the future. Judging by a tentative look-ahead to Penn State’s roster in 2024 the Nittany Lions should be deep and talented, the particulars of which are still unknown. Beyond that though who is really to say how that translates in all of these big games. It stands to reason that the Nittany Lions will never be bad in the newly formatted Big Ten but it’s also hard to imagine that the existential hump Penn State has been trying to get over will somehow get easier with the addition of these programs. It would be one thing if the Big Ten had added some middling programs to the conference, but Penn State will now basically have to contend with other versions of itself in addition to the two programs that have – at present – established themselves as superior to the rest of the league.
In turn, as Penn State heads to Columbus this upcoming weekend it’s hard to ignore the potential that this is Penn State’s last best chance at knocking off the Buckeyes for a win that could really mean something. That’s the cruel irony of Penn State’s upcoming schedules: the Nittany Lions could win against Ohio State or Michigan and then still have two more games equally as difficult around the corner. If not that, Penn State could pick up an elusive win over the Big Ten’s traditional big two, and then still get passed over by another team that did the same and then more.
It’s challenging to ever pick Penn State over the Buckeyes, but this Ohio State team appears to lack its usual unbeatable gene while the Nittany Lions boast perhaps the nation’s best defense and a plodding but undeniably efficient offense. Whatever the case might be, a win on Saturday comes with the fewest incoming obstructions. Michigan is likely still the class of the Big Ten, but if Penn State can simply beat Ohio State, all bets are off for a late season meeting at Beaver Stadium. Especially against a Michigan team that has played the better part of nobody this season and would have to finally care after a long season of getting away with just plodding along.
All of this is to say it’s only going to get harder from here, but not quite yet. Win and the Nittany Lions can say they made the most of their chances. Lose and it’s not unfair to wonder if it’ll ever be this easy again. If it was ever that easy to begin with.
