PARADISE VALLEY, Ariz. — The sun sets over the Camelback Mountain and leaves a cool breeze in its wake. The desert is quiet, for now. But on Tuesday, it will erupt in a frenzy. The College Football Playoff has made its way west, where Penn State and Boise State will face off in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal, each team just two wins from a trip to the national championship.
The Nittany Lions (-11) and Broncos will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET (5:30 local) with broadcasting designated to ESPN. Here’s a preview and prediction for this pivotal playoff matchup, the winner of which will move on to play either Georgia or Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9.
PREVIEW:
James Franklin has the age and experience over Boise State’s Spencer Danielson. Franklin’s now coached in two Big Ten Championships. He’s no stranger to facing some of the nation’s top teams each season. But he is, still, relatively new to the field of playoff football. Penn State breezed past SMU in the first round, but the Broncos should bring a different challenge.
The challenge centers on one man. He goes by the name Ashton Jeanty, and he’s one of the most dynamic, most dominant running backs in the history of college football. Jeanty is a roadblock the Nittany Lions must overcome in hopes of moving on to the Orange Bowl and, ultimately, the national title.
HOW TO STOP JEANTY AND EXPLOSIVE BOISE STATE:
But here’s the thing. Jeanty hasn’t faced a defense even remotely comparable to that of Penn State. He’s never seen a defensive end like Abdul Carter or even a defensive tackle like Zane Durant, two players who lead the front four of college football’s No. 7 run defense. It may be impossible to stop Jeanty, but if Penn State can limit him, a win shouldn’t be too difficult.
So how does a team limit an offense that possesses a player of Jeanty’s caliber? Most importantly, by controlling the time of possession. That means the Nittany Lions’ offense needs to extend drive and score consistently. Jeanty’s going to find success when he finds opportunities, so the most surefire way to limit him is to keep him off the field.
It’s fair to expect Jeanty to tally around 30 carries on Tuesday. That means the Broncos will run somewhere from 35 to 40 offensive plays that aren’t handoffs to their lead running back. And there’s no question about it — Penn State’s defense needs to capitalize on every play that doesn’t involve Jeanty on the ground.
PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Boise State 17.
It’s the Big Ten against the Mountain West. It’s a team that won close games against USC, Minnesota and Wisconsin against a team that won close games against Wyoming and Nevada. Make no mistake, Jeanty is one of the greatest to ever do it. But when it comes to complementary football, the Nittany Lions are, by far, the better overall team.
