Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN has high hopes for Matt Campbell and his Nittany Lions in the new head coach’s first season in Happy Valley. Higher, perhaps, than even the top row of the new west side stands in Beaver Stadium.
In fact, almost no one in all of college football is more in on Campbell and the Nittany Lions than Herbie.
“I think they can go 10-2 and they’re a playoff team,” Herbstreit said on the Pat McAfee Show. “I think the schedule favors them — they don’t play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. How’s that for timing for Matt Campbell? I could see this team getting to 10 wins and if they do, they get over the hump and into the playoffs.
OK, that’s the ceiling for Penn State in 2026.
The floor: Well, maybe 7-5 or 8-4, if the wheels come off, Rocco Becht is sidelined and the team culture Campbell has strived to build in the offseason hits a cyclone or two. Though very few folks are picking the foundation of the Campbell Era to begin at such a low level.
For the most part, 9-3 and 10-2 are the most popular picks for Penn State in 2026 among local and national media, with a post-season trip to the Citrus Bowl coming up multiple times. The three major polls have Penn State in the No. 17-18 neighborhood — obviously, a far cry from the No. 2 preseason spot Penn State had in 2025, before it all came tumbling down.
The Nittany Lions open the 2026 season at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday against Marshall in Beaver Stadium. Here’s an overview of the media prediction landscape for the 140th season of Penn State football:
THE POLLS — No. 18, 17, 17
There are three major national polls, with the AP the most popular and widespread.
Associated Press: Penn State is No. 18, just behind its toughest opponents in 2026, in USC (14, tie), Michigan (16) and Washington (17). Two Penn State alumni have AP votes this year: Ty Hildenbrandt of the Solid Verbal, who ranked PSU No. 20, and Spencer Ripchik of the Dominion Post in West Virginia (19).
AFCA Coaches Poll: Penn State is No. 17, with USC (14) and Michigan (16) ahead of PSU, with Washington at No. 19.
Football Writers Association of America/National Football Foundation: FWAA/NFF does a Super 16. In their preseason poll, Penn State comes in at No. 17. Penn State alum Matt Fortuna of The Inside Zone does not list the Nittany Lions in his top 16.
ON3/BLUE WHITE ILLUSTRATED— 9-3 (5); 10-2
The top pay-site in college sports, On3 has a local team of six reporters and editors, while the national site has some of the biggest names in the business. On3/Blue White Illustrated: Five of their six staffers picked a 9-3 record: Nate Bauer, Sean Fitz, Matt Herb, Greg Pickel and Ryan Snyder. T. Frank Carr is the outlier, picking the Nittany Lions to go 10-2.
Fitz’s take is especially strong: “The light schedule talk is warranted, but at the end of the day in college football, there’s no telling which team is going to make a sudden rise. Penn State will be favored in the overwhelming majority of its games, but after last year, it’s clear that games are not played on paper. The roster rebuild was impressive from a structural perspective, though coaching will have to make up for a lack of top-end talent. Because of that, I think this is an eight-win team with a 10-win schedule.”
ON3 NATIONAL
College writer/podcaster Andy Staples predicts “Penn State’s Whiteout game against USC will determine a College Football Playoff berth. As difficult as it will be to go to Happy Valley and beat Matt Campbell’s Penn State team in front of 107,000 screaming fans — many of whom will be making Pablo Pledgescobar jokes on their white shirts — the Trojans probably need to win this one to make the CFP. They’ll have to win some of the others too. But if they can’t beat this Penn State team, they probably aren’t beating either Indiana or Ohio State later.
“Meanwhile, Penn State got the opposite of USC’s Big Ten schedule draw. The most difficult games on paper are the visit from USC on Oct. 10 and a trip to Ann Arbor to play Michigan the following week. If the Nittany Lions can beat the Trojans, it means they’re probably beating just about everyone else. An 11-1 regular season (or maybe 12-0) certainly would seem possible.”
LIONS247 — 10-2 (2); 9-3 (3)
Like the local On3 staff, Lions247 is packed with folks who have covered PSU football a long time, But no one longer on either staff than Mark Brennan, of BrennanCam and “NitWits” fame. He is one of three Lions247 staffers — with Tyler Calvaruso and national analyst Brian Dohn — who pick Penn State to go 9-3. His rationale: “I have the Nittany Lions winning one of three against USC (home), Michigan (road) and Washington (road), and being bitten in one game it really should not lose. If a bounce or two go Penn State’s way, double-digit wins and a College Football Playoff appearance are distinct possibilities. But for now, I’m going with 9-3.” Tyler Donahue and Daniel Galllen both have Penn State at 10-2.
THE ATHLETIC — No. 29; CFP-Bound
The New York Times-owned sports website, co-founded by Penn State alum Alex Mather, is of two minds about the Nittany Lions. Its overall college ranking places PSU at No. 29, while veteran Big Ten reporter Scott Dochterman thinks Penn State makes the 12-team College Football Playoff, at No. 11 and taking on No. 6 Georgia in the first round. Dochterman: “Penn State collects the final at-large bid here, which surely will invite controversy given the Nittany Lions’ strength of schedule.”
Chris Vannini of The Athletic has Penn State slotted at No. 29 in his 1-to-138 preseason rankings. His take on Penn State: “New coach Matt Campbell brought over most of Iowa State’s best players, including quarterback Rocco Becht. That continuity should help make the most of a favorable draw in Big Ten play.”
ESPN — No. 16
ESPN’s College Football Power Index has Penn State No. 16 after Week 0, with an FPI of 13.7 (Ohio State, at No. 1, has an FPI of 28.7). ESPN predicts a 9.1-3.1 record for Penn State.
PSU IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF — 2 YES’s; Many NO’s
Will PSU make the CFP? Herbstreit and Dochterman are pretty much lone wolves in this regard. Plenty of big names in college football media say the Nittany Lions will not be selected for the CFP. Among the no-CFP prognosticators: Joel Klatt (FOX), Josh Pate of On3, ESPN and Yahoo; Chris Low and Brett McMurphy of On3; Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach, ESPN; and Erick Smith of USA Today.
Austin Mock of The Athletic gives Penn State a 30% chance to make the CFP after a regular season record of 9-3. Overall, The Athletic staff gives Penn State a 25.8% chance of making the playoffs, but does list the Nittany Lions as one of the “first five out” (of making the CFP).
CITRUS BOWL — 4
Four college football experts from three different outlets all pick Penn State to play in the Citrus Bowl on Saturday, Jan. 2. Kickoff is at noon in Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. The rundown of potential Nittany Lion opponents: Old Miss (McMurphy), LSU (Smith), Texas A&M (Bonagura) and Alabama (Schlabach).
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