Penn State Opens as Betting Underdog Against Notre Dame in Orange Bowl, College Football Playoff Semifinal

The story of Penn State’s season has been its relentless ability to beat the teams it was anticipated to beat. But the two games the Nittany Lions were viewed as underdogs, against Ohio State and Oregon, ultimately served as the team’s only losses. James Franklin will be tasked with overcoming that trend against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl next Thursday.

After a 23-10 win against Georgia in Thursday’s Sugar Bowl, the Fighting Irish have opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Penn State in the College Football Playoff semifinal, per FanDuel.

The total has opened at 46.5 points, a fair tally for two programs with elite defenses and offenses that have proven to be able to get the job done. The Nittany Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their past three games against Boise State, SMU and Oregon. The Buckeyes are the only team to have held them under 20 points in a game this season.

Notre Dame is the last remaining one-loss team, a 16-14 defeat against Northern Illinois on Sept. 7. Penn State, meanwhile, stands at 13-2 with its only losses coming against teams that qualified for the College Football Playoff.

From a betting perspective, the Fighting Irish are 11-2-1 against the spread this season, ranking tied for second nationally in that department. The Nittany Lions — who had some surprisingly close wins over Bowling Green, USC and Minnesota — are 8-7 against the spread in 2024.

Penn State has covered its over just six times in 15 games. Notre Dame, meanwhile, was 7-7 in the over/under category prior to its win over the Bulldogs.