Penn State football is coming off one of the most successful seasons in program history, and the betting lines suggest 2025 could be just as fruitful, if not more, for the Nittany Lions.
Based on betting lines, here’s how Penn State is expected to fare this season.
Win total: 10.5
Penn State has a consensus win total of 10.5, meaning the Nittany Lions are expected to win 10 or 11 games, though multiple sportsbooks have the under juiced, meaning 10-2 is more likely. The Nittany Lions had the same preseason win total last season before going 11-1 and reaching the Big Ten championship game.
Oregon/Ohio State spreads
According to early lines from DraftKings, which may shift as the games draw closer, Penn State is a 5.5-point favorite over Oregon at home on Sept. 27. The Nittany Lions have the advantage of hosting the Ducks in a White Out environment, which former Buckeye coach Urban Meyer has claimed is worth 7-10 points in Penn State’s favor. If this result unfolds, the Nittany Lions would earn revenge for last year’s conference championship game, which the Ducks won 45-37.
On the flip side, Penn State is a 4-point underdog against defending national champion Ohio State on the road. The sportsbooks are projecting the Buckeyes to win a ninth consecutive meeting between the two squads in another closely contested battle on Nov 1.
Big Ten championship
According to odds from BetMGM, the Nittany Lions have the second-best odds to win the Big Ten at +240, marginally trailing Ohio State at +190. Based on these odds, the Buckeyes are projected to claim the conference title while Penn State may reach Indianapolis before falling short for the second consecutive season.
College Football Playoff
Per FanDuel odds, Ohio State (-325), Penn State (-290) and Oregon (-225) are the three Big Ten teams expected to qualify for the College Football Playoff. With the Buckeyes expected to claim the conference title, they’d be given a top-four seed and the highest seed the Nittany Lions could earn after losing the conference championship is No. 5.
National championship
In terms of winning it all, Penn State holds the consensus fourth-best odds behind Ohio State, Texas and Georgia at +800. Having the fourth-best odds roughly translates to a semifinal appearance, unless the Nittany Lions get a bad draw and face one of the top three teams before then. This roughly implies Penn State would be favored against all but those three schools on a neutral site.
Individual accolades
Though it varies slightly by sportsbook, quarterback Drew Allar holds roughly the sixth best odds to win the Heisman Trophy at around +1400, trailing Arch Manning, Garrett Nussmeier, Cade Klubnik, Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin. That implies high projections for Allar’s performance in 2025, and likely improved production from the wide receiver room.
Overall
Combining these numbers, Penn State is favored in 11 games and an underdog against Ohio State, but oddsmakers believe a 10-2 season is slightly more likely than an 11-1 campaign, meaning a slip-up is expected somewhere along the way. The odds also indicate a Big Ten championship loss to the Buckeyes in a rematch, followed by a College Football Playoff berth at 10-3. Once there, the Nittany Lions have a decent chance of returning to the semifinals but have longer odds than three teams of hoisting the trophy.
While oddsmakers have typically been spot-on when projecting Penn State (34-1 when favored, 0-7 as an underdog across the last three seasons), lines are also educated guesses. They may provide some insight into the Nittany Lions’ season, but anything can happen when toe meets leather, and these shouldn’t be taken as guarantees.
