The next thing we know, 31 days from now we’re going to look up and Penn State could be 7-2.
Could be. Not will. But could be.
And will have to be.
October will have to be a treat and not a trick for Penn State, since November ain’t what it used to be in Happy Valley.
Boys, time to play it one month at a time.
Joe Paterno was once considered the master of the cold weather, looking steely-eyed across the field from the Penn State sidelines, knowing that his preparation beat their perspiration four out of five times in the 11th month of the year.
That advantage has been in hibernation for quite awhile. Paterno used to own November. He also was a master at using an off-week to his advantage. No longer.
Since the Nittany Lions folded down the stretch of the 1999 season like a Red Sox from (has)Beantown, Penn State has been marginal at best in November. The Lions are 22-18 (a 55 percent winning clip) in November since then.
And in the nine regular season games since 1999 that the Nittany Lions have had an off-week or two, they are an unspectacular 5-4 in the game after the break.
A start of 7-2 isn’t a goal for the 2011 Nittany Lions. It’s a necessity. A tall order indeed, since a 6-3 could rapidly become a 7-5. You know how that story ends.
IT BEGINS SATURDAY
So what does this mean now, just before Penn State travels to Indiana to knock the hose and bloomers off the Hoosiers?
Indiana is the beginning of a five-week stretch in which the Lions must play .800 ball — win four out of five — if they want 2011 to be a season with meaning, and not a 2010-like demeaning.
The next five Saturdays, Penn State plays five Big Ten Conference teams – in order, Indiana, Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois.
Penn State couldn’t ask for a better October. That quintet had a combined record of 14-26 in the Big Ten last year, and 31-32 overall.
In 2011, feeding on rejects from The Land of Misfit Toys, they are 12-6. Among the vanquished are: Arkansas State, Eastern Illinois, Louisiana Monroe, Middle Tennessee, Rice, South Carolina State, South Dakota State, Southeast Missouri State, Tennessee Tech and Western Michigan.
It reads like a Who’s Who of safety schools for stoner high school seniors.
Now don’t go making fun of the Nittany Lions’ September undercard, either. Not counting their losses to Dear Old State, the Lions’ first four opponents are a combined 12-1, a point made by Mike Pettigano from Black Shoe Diaries.
Signature wins of that group? Iowa’s 31-27 victory over a mediocre Pitt, Northwestern’s 24-17 victory over 1-3 Boston College (which was 7-6 in 2010) and Illinois’ 17-14 Zookering of Arizona State in Champaign.
And Arizona State is good; it has already beaten both Southern Cal and Missouri, and is now ranked No. 25 in the AP Poll. Illinois, for its part, is ranked No. 24 by AP and No. 21 by USA Today.
RETURN OF THE ILLINI
Given that Illinois has played Penn State even over the past four years, a loss to the Illini — who are making a return visit to Beaver Stadium after thrashing PSU 33-13 there last year – is quite possible for Penn State.
Remember that 2010 game? It came on the heels of an embarrassing, scatter-coached 24-3 loss at Iowa in the fifth game of the year. The next week Illinois rubbed it in early, going for it on fourth-and-short from its own end of the field – in the first quarter. On Homecoming Day.
Rob Bolden threw a pick for an interception and Evan Royster ran for all of 35 yards. Penn State got seven first downs; these days, that’s a Matt McGloin scoring drive.
Penn State shriveled to 3-3, rebounded to 6-3, then limped home by losing three of its final four games.
This October will be better, Joe Paterno promised on Tuesday.
“If you ask me, ‘Are we a better team this year going into our fifth game as compared to last year?’ ” Paterno said, “we’re a better team this year than we were going into the fifth game. What’s that going to determine as far as wins and losses, I don’t know. I’m just trying to get us to play a little bit better this week and a little bit better the following week and see where we go.”
Hence, October.
“But this team has been a little bit easier to coach,” he added. “They’ve been a little bit more committed. They have a little bit more — I don’t want to say poise, maturity is the word I was struggling for — they are a little bit more mature. And I think overall they have a chance to be a good football team.”
WHAT DOES ‘GOOD’ EQUAL?
Translation: Good means about a 9-3 in Joe’s opinion.
Sitting at 3-1, there’s a good chance Penn State will only get better. We’re just talking October here.
Anthony Fera is the field goal kicker. The defense will certainly miss Michael Mauti, but the linebacking corps is still deep. Devon Still is deep in the opposing backfields. In the secondary, which will lose D’Anton Lynn for at least awhile, where there’s a (Malcolm) Willis and some young talent, there’s a way.
Co-captain Drew Astorino says that from his vantage point, the defense is miles ahead of last season.
“We’re more cohesive,” Astorino said earlier this season. “We play more as a unit, which we didn’t do last year. The defensive line was separate from the linebackers who were separate from the secondary. By now, we’re good friends. We’re all playing with the same goal: No scores, no yards.”
On the other side of the ball is Penn State’s offensive line…well, it pass-blocked nicely last week. And only jumped off-sides a couple of times. See, they can only get better. After giving the starting job a spin, Silas Redd has proven to be an elusive runner with great upside. If he gets some blocking.
QB TO BE BETTER?
Like it or not, the quarterbacking is getting better. Bolden thinks so. On a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, he said he was “clueless” last season.
And a few weeks ago, when asked how much he’s gotten better, Bolden showed a group of reporters. “Last year, I was here,” he said, putting one hand down low. “And now, I’m here.” His other hand was much higher, by a good two feet. Good, getting better?
You would think that sometime in the next four weeks a full-time starter at quarterback will emerge. He’ll have to — look at what November brings. Not pretty, so let’s linger on October a bit longer.
Right now, Illinois has the decided edge against PSU. Lucky for Penn State, it doesn’t face Illinois until it plays four more games. Indiana and Purdue are gimmes.
At Northwestern, in that itsy stadium by the lake with that bitsy quarterback from Pennsylvania – that Dan Persa! – it’s anybody’s guess. Kirk Ferentz is no longer mentioned as a successor to Paterno, but he does hold the deed to Mount Nittany – Iowa is 8-1 vs. Penn State since 2000. Throw in Illinois, and Penn State could go 2-3 in October. But unlikely.
“Are we good enough right now to say, ‘Hey, let’s just go out and maintain a certain level,’ ” Paterno said. “No. We’ve got a long ways to go to be a really good team yet. But I think we can make it. I think we can. We haven’t made it yet.”
Proof that they did make it will be if the Nittany Lions can take two of three against Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern, and leave the month in excellent shape.
Until November, that is.
NOVEMBER: THE COLD HARD FACTS
The Nittany Lions are guaranteed to start the month in good fashion. They have a bye on Nov. 5.
Then Nebraska comes to campus on Nov. 12, followed by road-trips to Ohio State on Nov. 19 and to Wisconsin on Nov. 26. A 7-2 Penn State start could turn to a 7-5 in 15 degree days. And that’s where Penn State was in 2010, before Florida – where all hell broke loose.
This year, the coach, the quarterback and the gritty co-captain who’s started a team-high 31 games and counting all say that 2011 is already better than 2010.
Of course, Penn State started last season 3-1 as well. And it didn’t go well.
THE COACH: BETTER?
Odds are it will be different. Indiana on Saturday almost guarantees that. And that thing about only getting better? That includes Paterno, too.
Think about it: He got laid out in August, walked with a cane and coached from the box in September, and won’t even take a prescription med no matter what the month or the ailment. Say what you want, but that guy is tough.
October will feel like a walk in the park for him. (Let’s not say Sunset Park, even though that’s the name of the wooded area next to Joe’s State College home.) As bad as his health may be now, it’s only going to get better.
Every little bit helps – even in October, and especially in November.
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