A week from Penn State’s season opener against Purdue on the road, it’s time for everyone’s favorite exercise: predictions that will absolutely not turn out to be wrong at a later date.
Penn State is a hard team to put a finger on – the Nittany Lions have a lot of good pieces, but it’s hard to know how they’ll all click together against the tougher tests on the schedule. The Nittany Lions aren’t – on paper – objectively worse than really any team on the schedule other than Ohio State so it’s hard to picture Penn State losing too many games this year when too many teams aren’t that good. That being said here’s a full schedule prediction. All told 10 regular season wins with two obvious games that could easily go against the Nittany Lions and one game that has them on upset watch.
(Win) @ Purdue: A year ago this game would have looked a lot different on paper. Purdue brings back Aidan O’Connell at quarterback – one of the few quarterbacks in college football who can match Sean Clifford’s longevity. The issue for the Boilermakers is that nearly all of O’Connell’s best targets in 2021 are gone now in 2022. David Bell is off to the NFL, Milton Wright was deemed academically ineligible for the year and Jackson Anthrop is off to the next level as well. In turn Purdue might be able to match Penn State at quarterback but the Nittany Lions have too many weapons to lose this game. The Boilermakers aren’t to be taken lightly but the horses aren’t there anymore – or if they are everyone will find out on Thursday night. Wouldn’t be a huge shock if this game goes a bit of the way Penn State’s trip to Illinois did a few years ago. A close game that doesn’t end so close once the second half comes around.
(Win) Ohio: It seems like a million years ago that Penn State lost to Ohio to start off the Bill O’Brien era and it’s safe to say that plenty has changed since then. The Bobcats went 3-9 last season and there’s no real reason to think this is going to be the day that the trend starts to change in this department. Ohio will be coming off a home game against Florida Atlantic the week prior at home, but Beaver Stadium will be a different animal. Might get a Drew Allar appearance in this one.
(Win/Toss Up) @ Auburn: This game is a tough one to predict. Nothing about playing Auburn on the road sounds easy but Auburn isn’t without its own issues. T.J. Finley is set to start at quarterback this year after an inconclusive quarterback competition during camp so far and head coach Bryan Harsin appears to be on the hot seat this season. So on the one hand the pressure is on Auburn to win this game more than Penn State, but that can either help or hurt you. Penn State should have more answers than questions in this game and that could be the edge. Manny Diaz and Sean Clifford are the difference in this game. It won’t be pretty but things are more stable in Penn State’s locker room right now, that’ll be the difference.
(Win) Central Michigan: Jim McElwain coached Central Michigan to a nine-win season last year with a bowl win over Washington State to show for it. That being said the Chippewas didn’t have much else in terms of real noteworthy wins. Daniel Richardson returns as Central Michigan’s starting quarterback and that will give his team something to stand on. This could be a game for a little bit, but Penn State is going to have the crowd and the horses. And frankly if the Nittany Lions are 3-0 at this point Central Michigan won’t be the hardest win they’ve had to come by so far.
(Win) Northwestern: The Wildcats will know what kind of season they’re having by the time this game comes around. Pat Fitzgerald knows how to make these games ugly but if Ryan Hilinski isn’t the answer at quarterback it’s hard to know who is. This game goes in Penn State’s favor because the Nittany Lions are going to have the experience and the talent to win it, but not all Big Ten wins are pretty ones. Penn State is 5-0 but how good the Nittany Lions really are is something we’ll find out in the coming weeks. At this point they’re leaning on being the better team against teams they should be better than. Is that good enough to beat the big dogs?
(Loss) @ Michigan: Generally speaking I don’t think Michigan is going to be as good as advertised but James Franklin hasn’t really been able to crack the code in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are still figuring out who their starting quarterback is – and any early season questions might linger. Michigan’s defense is losing some high end talent and that won’t be easy to replace either. Michigan is going to be good – and probably be better than Penn State on this day – but the Wolverines aren’t going to be world beaters. If Penn State is going to do something special this season, it will start here. Penn State is coming off a bye, which is a good thing or a bad thing – time will tell.
(Win) Minnesota: With Kirk Ciarrocca back at Minnesota this is basically a rematch of the 2019 game. It’s hard to ignore the rematch variables here – especially with the Whiteout in play – and James Franklin has often been at his best when he’s spiteful. Tanner Morgan is back for his 100th season at Minnesota but the Gophers might not be quite as good in 2022. PJ Fleck has something to prove this year after winning nine games with the Gophers in 2021. This is an opportunity for a marquee win for Fleck, but he isn’t going to get two of them against Penn State. Especially as the Gophers make it three games on the road in four weeks while Penn State plays just its second game in 21 days.
(Loss) Ohio State: It’s Ohio State. CJ Stroud might win the Heisman. Again it’s Ohio State. Generally Penn State has played the Buckeyes as well as anyone in the country the past decade but there’s a reason Ohio State is Ohio State. This is the first time Ohio State has played in front of a Penn State crowd since 2018 so that’s something to consider but short of injuries and unforeseeable things at this point of the year – Ohio State is going to be the better team. Never say never, but tonight isn’t the one that gets Penn State over the hump.
(Win) @Indiana: The Hoosiers are in a bit of a make-or-break season and this will be a good day to see which direction things are going. Indiana has been plenty good under Tom Allen, but he’ll need quarterback Jack Tuttle to be the prospect he once was if they’re going to win games like these. The later you get into the season the harder it is to know what to expect from either team in close games, but we’ll let history dictate this one. Indiana keeps it close, but Penn State is playing its best ball of the year right now and has something to prove coming out of a loss.
(Win/Upset Watch) Maryland: I can’t in good faith say that I really really think Maryland is going to win this game, but I also really can’t say in good faith that I don’t think Taulia Tagovailoa is one of the more underrated players in the country. It’s hard to pick Maryland until the defense is there, but the Terps are going to give Penn State a run in mid November.
(Win) @ Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights are better, and not as bad as they once were, but today isn’t the day.
(Win/Toss Up) Michigan State: This might be one of the more interesting games of the year for Penn State in terms of long term narratives. Mel Tucker might be the guy to get Michigan State to that next level and games like this have a lot to do with the perception of that movement in the Big Ten among the league’s higher profile programs. It’s impossible to really know how either of these teams are going to look at the very end of the year – or even what the weather will be like. That being said, James Franklin might be itching for another crack at his fellow long-term contracted head coach. Penn State wins, but barely.
