Fourth down is fun, or at least it can be fun. It’s the moment that can change the course of a game for the better or the worse. Convert and you might just come away with crucial points. Fail and your opponents might just do the same on a shorter field.
So far this season Penn State has converted 17 fourth-down attempts, a mark that only seven teams can better. The Nittany Lions have gone for it 25 times in total, a 68% success rate that is No. 15 overall nationally and No. 2 among teams that have attempted a fourth-down conversion on 20 or more occasions. In short, Penn State is going for it and getting it, more than most.
But what goes into the decision and are teams going for it now more than ever? In 2009 — as far back as CFStats.com tracks — just four teams went for it on fourth down more than 30 times in a season. Fast forward to 2022 and that number is twice as many with games still left to go. While that’s not an exact science, it’s at least one small data point that confirms what you may have already seen with your own eyes: you don’t always have to punt on fourth down.
“Within the coaching community, it definitely has because everybody is using some form of analytics now,” Penn State coach James Franklin said on Tuesday. “We use a company, and we know everybody else in the conference and the teams we play who uses the same company, so they’re getting the same recommendations that we are. So that’s always interesting.
“[But] I think within the coaching community there is no doubt that there has been a shift. I would say a pretty significant shift. … really the data is pretty significant. I think a perfect example of that is — again, it goes back to execution — but I think a perfect example of that is the one on Saturday where we punted it, shanked the punt. I think it ended up being a 16-yard punt, and there is one where really the data at that time was saying that punt was the right choice. But then after you punt it you only really net 16 yards, so you’re like, really wasn’t necessarily worth it. Probably should have went for it there. But you can’t think like that based on the result, although we all like to.”
There is of course the other side of the coin: the failure to convert on fourth down can set up an opponent with more favorable field position, and even if they don’t score a punt would pin Penn State even further back into its own end of the field. It’s a decision that can have ramifications on the rest of the half depending on how the game unfolds. So when it comes to making the decision itself, it isn’t all on Franklin, and it isn’t even always made on Saturday.
“I’m not one of these guys that I live and die by it and do exactly what the book says,” Franklin said of analytics. “We go through the recommendations and I have a core group of guys that I meet with; we meet every Monday. We go over what we want to do. OK, here is what the book is suggesting we do this week. Because it does adjust based on your opponent subtly. So we’ll go over it when we want to go for two and not. So I get the book’s recommendations and then I get the four staff member’s recommendations, and then I make the final call and then we go into the game with that information.
“But it’s also kind of interesting because there are some people that are going to do it no matter what, and for us, it’s just another kind of piece of information that guides you. I still feel like during the game, based on how the game is playing out, the weather, are you scoring more than maybe you anticipated or scoring less than you anticipated, all these things kind of factor into it.”
Penn State fourth down attempts and conversions since 2009.
- 2022: 17/25
- 2021: 12/26
- 2020: 11/22
- 2019: 11/18
- 2018: 9/17
- 2017: 8/14
- 2016: 10/20
- 2015: 12/23
- 2014: 7/19
- 2013: 13/24
- 2012: 19/34
- 2011: 10/18
- 2010: 8/17
- 2009: 3/6
The other challenge: getting the defense on the same page as the offense. If you fail on fourth down, you better be prepared to get a stop. That means making sure your defense is ready in those sudden change moments when you go from having the ball, to not. The best way to do that is to prepare guys ahead of time for a game when fourth down might be more crucial than usual. The good news so far this season is that Penn State’s defense has done more than its fair share of heavy lifting. The Nittany Lions have given up touchdowns just 40% of the time that their opponent has reached the red zone, the fifth-best mark in the nation.
“What we try to do is discuss as an entire organization, not just the staff, but the players, hey, this is what we want to do. Is everybody on the same page?” Franklin added. “If the offense goes for it on fourth down, just like the fans, if it doesn’t work, the defense has to go out now and have the offense’s back.”
The good news for Penn State? Rutgers is No. 81 in fourth-down conversion defense and Michigan State is No. 85. So if the Nittany Lions have a short-yardage fourth-down situation, don’t be surprised if they go for it. And like so often this season, don’t be surprised if they get it.
