Ben State Football: Best Case/Worst Case For Penn State’s Remaining Schedule

Even with only two games in the month of October — a trip to Michigan and hosting a talented Ohio State team — after a whirlwind start to the season made for a difficult stretch.

Now past the opening seven games of the season, Penn State sits a respectable 4-3 on the year that really could have just as easily been 6-1 if a few things had gone the Nittany Lions’ way. While 4-3 may not be the kind of mark fans are accustomed to, all things considered it is a fairly good start to the season.

So how does Penn State’s year pan out from here? 

Trying to predict the outcome of games is usually the quickest way to look stupid later — just ask everyone who predicted how Penn State’s meeting with Ohio State would go — but prognosticating is also one of the great pastimes of sports.

With five games to go, here is a best case/worst case for each contest.

Maryland

Best Case: Penn State comes out firing after an emotional loss to Ohio State and the Nittany Lions defense shuts down a Terrapin offense that has been hit or miss all year. The losing streak ends and Penn State improves to 5-3 on the year in a game where a new look offensive line performs far better than it had the previous three games.

Worst Case: A noon kick and the weight of losing doesn’t help Penn State get off on the right foot against one of the older and more experienced teams in the nation. Maryland might not be good, but it doesn’t take much to slow Penn State’s offense down and that means it only takes a score or two to take control of the game. The offensive line doesn’t improve, and Penn State’s defense is still gassed after going to the wire with the Buckeyes.

 @ Indiana:

Best Case: Penn State plays better away from home than at Beaver Stadium and Indiana’s backup quarterback situation still can’t make up for the injured Nate Sudfeld. The Hoosiers have struggled all year and Penn State’s defense doesn’t help matters any. A slow starting game doesn’t make for  great TV but Akeel Lynch shines on a ground-and-pound day with Hackenberg putting up solid numbers for the second straight week and the second straight victory. Penn State keeps up with Indiana’s average of 35+ in each of its last four games.

Worst Case: Indiana figures out how to move the ball against a Penn State team that has lost four straight. The Nittany Lions never get going adn Indiana makes the most of a weak foe to pick up win No. 4 on the year. It’s ugly.

Temple:

Best Case: Penn State has a newfound swagger after a tough run through October and two straight wins against conference opponents. The Owls are better than people give them credit for but so is Mike Hull and a defense that isn’t about to let another loss hit the record books. Hackenberg and Lynch continue to play well under an improving offensive line and it’s 7-3 with two and a bowl to go.

Worst Case: Temple’s defense only gives up 19 points a game and there have been weeks where that would be enough to beat Penn State. The Owls are up for a game with their intrastate counterparts and a few bad bounces and ill-timed turnovers set the stage for an upset. Penn State’s offensive line can’t get the run game going and a snowy day in Happy Valley doesn’t help the pass attack either. Temple wins on a last second field goal and is stuck in State College due to snow.

@ Illinois:

Best Case: Illinois isn’t very good. Penn State is better, even in a down year. Illinois puts up a fight on senior day but that defense can’t stop Hackenberg and company. Deion Barnes has a solid outing and continues to remind people of his outstanding freshman season two years ago. All in all it’s a good day for Penn State and the starters get a little rest in the fourth quarter as Michigan State looms on the horizon.

Worst Case: With Reilly O’Toole at quarterback and a win over Minnesota the Illini have found new life and are able to pull of a Senior Day special. Penn State can’t move the ball and a solid passing attack leads to  two big plays by Illinois to go ahead late. Penn State hasn’t been doing any better since the loss to Ohio State and somehow the Nittany Lions’ bowl chances come down to upending Michigan State.

Michigan State:

Best Case: The Spartans lose to Ohio State and conference title hopes die and so do playoff hopes with a two loss record. Penn State pulls off a senior day win in overtime to have marquee win on the schedule and a 9-3 record heading into bowl season. It’s a defensive battle between the conference’s best defenders and Mike Hull goes out with another game for the ages. Hackenberg puts together another solid outing and Bill Belton scores a wildcat score of his own.

Worst Case: Michigan State enters the game 10-1 and just outside the playoff conversation. As a result it’s no-holds-barred against a Nittany Lion team already bowl eligible and playing in front of a smaller holiday crowd. The Michigan State defense gives Penn State fits and the Spartan running game continues to be one of the best in the nation. It is years removed, but Michigan State repays the favor of the 49-18 loss to Penn State in 2008 and win the division on Penn State soil. The good news is that Penn State is still bowling.

Overall: It’s hard to imagine Penn State finishing worse than six wins given the upcoming schedule. In theory there are four more winnable games on the slate if Penn State can play consistent football. The Nittany Lions missing out on six wins would take a fairly epic collapse against fairly bad teams. So it’s still a safe bet for Penn State fans to start thinking about travel plans as the season enters the second half.

POPULAR  STORIES:

Penn State Football: Even In Defeat Nittany Lions Put Up Historic Defensive Effort

Youth Was Served in Penn State’s Just-in-Time Inventory Passing Game

Penn State Football Handing Out The Grades Following Nittany Lions’ Double Overtime Loss To Ohio State

Penn State Football: Nittany Lions Will Expected Loss Into Heartbreaker

Referee John O’Neill And Replay Official Tom Fiedler Talk Controversial Calls

Penn State Hockey: Nittany Lions Third Period Buries Holy Cross 7-1

Penn State Football Has ‘Tremendous Impact’ On State College, Centre County Economy