Ben State Football: Is 6-2 All That Bad?

I’ll preface this by saying I don’t pay to go to Penn State football games home or away.

You do.

And as such you have a right to complain about whatever you want. For a few hundred dollars a week just about anything you don’t like is fair game to take issue with.

That’s how paying for something works. You think Penn State should throw it 40-yards every play and want to shout it from your seat, go right ahead. I’m not stopping you. Heck, even people who watch from home have the right, with free speech being what it is.

But when did 6-2 become such a horrible thing?

If this sounds like advocating for James Franklin on his behalf, it isn’t. There are real and very serious questions he and his staff will have to answer sooner rather than later. The decision to fire or retain John Donovan, who will play quarterback after Christian Hackenberg, those two things will in all likelihood shape the trajectory of Franklin’s time at Penn State. The ability to coach and develop players, game plan and adjust, those things go largely unanswered an in need of answering over the next few years.

There is however some context to consider.

Since the 2000 season Penn State has started 6-2 or better on just five occasions prior to this year. To a certain extent the vast majority of this success was the result of largely the same roster, in the very least some reoccurring cast members. 

Nevertheless the past 15 years of Penn State football’s history has not been riddled with much more than better than average play coupled with unremarkable campaigns. For sure the Big Ten titles and the very real chance at a national title shot make the highs extremely high but for the most part these seasons were not bookended by relentless success at a high level.

Similarly Penn State’s record against Top 25 opponents has been less than stellar. Over that same span Penn State has won just 17 games against teams in the Top 25 with seven of those wins coming over the course of two seasons. What is even more telling, those 17 wins came in 55 attempts against Top 25 opponents. A winning percentage of just under 30%.

Compared to the program’s history that’s a remarkably low rate. From 1985 through 1999 Penn State won 56% of its chances against ranked teams, 34 wins in 61 attempts. From 1970 to 1984 the Nittany Lions were ripping off wins in the Top 25, 60% of the time with 31 wins in 52 attempts.

The result is a Penn State program that has won 82 games against ranked teams since 1970 in 168 tries, a 49% success rate that is largely supported by games decades in the past. For comparisons, Ohio State has lost 120 games as a program since 1970, Penn State has lost 86 games in that span to ranked opponents alone.

And this comes back to the always present question of what Penn State football is right now. A sleeping giant? A program with tradition that’s best days are behind it?

Or maybe Penn State is a program that had been crippled with sanctions unlike the sport has ever seen. A program with good recruiting on the way and TBD coaching to mold it into something more. A program in a place where winning wasn’t a guarantee in 2015 no matter who the coach was. A program that is only just a little bit better than the programs it always used to beat. A program where even that might only be true when everything goes its way. A program where there are finally enough good players to have meaningful practices.

These things don’t excuse Franklin and Co for everything they do between now and some nonspecific time down the road. But these things are difficult to change with the power of positive thinking.

If nothing else Penn State football has only just been getting by for a while now, time will tell if Franklin is the man to change that.

At the end of the day though, Penn State has been a middle of the pack program with an above average history for longer than most fans want to admit. Getting knocked down a few pegs from there doesn’t set up well for an overnight rebuild. Nuclear fallout doesn’t just blow away with the wind.

Feel free to complain, for as much money as hotels and tickets cost it’s hard not to.

But at least your team is winning.