James Franklin said it this week:
“If you look at drive-start average, I think that’s been a big factor in the games.”
So we did the math.
Over Penn State’s last two games – a cumulative 47-19 loss to Big Ten foes Northwestern and Michigan – the Nittany Lion offense has started in a hole. A deep, dark hole.
On average, for its 28 drives over the past eight quarters, Penn State’s offense started on its own 25-yard line. Conversely, the Wildcats and the Wolverines typically started on their own 43-yard line. That’s a difference of 18 yards.
Over those 28 possessions, that’s a difference of over 500 yards. Tough for even Superman to leap in a single bound.
What that means is that every time Penn State’s last two opponents’ offenses got the ball, they were nearly two first downs closer to a score than the Nittany Lions. They only had 29 yards to go for a makeable 45-yard field goal. Not so for the Franklions.
A SMALLER RANGE OF OPTIONS
Penn State place-kicker San Ficken is 10 of 12 on field goals in 2014 – with two blocks – but his average made field goal is from 33 yards. (His long is 42 this season.) Penn State’s offense has had to go to its opponents’ 16-yard line to get into Ficken’s average range. That’s a 59-yard drive. Penn State has had just five drives that went that distance in its three Big Ten Conference contests – combined.
Here’s the other part of the equation: Penn State’s average drive against Northwestern went all of 16 yards. And its average drive at Michigan was 18.2 yards. Even worse: Over Penn State’s final nine possessions at the Big House two weeks ago, the Nittany Lions averaged just 8.2 yards per drive. Sam ain’t making anything from that distance.
This is what James is driving at:
Overall, in 2014 Penn State has been starting its average drive at the 27.5-yard line, while its opponents have been beginning at the 34 – a hefty difference of 6.5 yards, which amounts to almost 100 yards in game of 14 or 15 possessions.
That doesn’t appear on the stat sheet. But it does show up in the final score.
“We talk about drive‑start average,” Franklin said this week. “That’s been a big factor. We went into this knowing that we had two inexperienced young punters that we felt good about. Typically what you see in young punters is they have the ability to crank out a 57- or 60‑yard punt. But what we talk about all the time (is) what’s more valuable: Can you consistently punt the 40‑yard punt rather than one time knocking a 60‑yarder and the next time a 30‑yarder? That’s what comes with — just like any position — being able to do your job consistently.”
In a game of field position, punting is close to being prince. Or pauper. Penn State’s net punting average is 33.1 yards; its opponents’ is 36.9. That’s a loss of almost four yards per punt exchange. Penn State loses 3.2 yards every kickoff exchange, 3.1 yards per kick return and 4.4 yards per punt return. On interceptions (PSU has thrown seven and grabbed seven), Penn State averages 1.4 yards per interception return, while the opposition averages 18.7 yards, with one pick six.
“Turnovers usually play into that,” Franklin said about field position. “I think our defense has played extremely well, but getting some of those game‑changing plays, the interception returns for touchdowns, the punt returns for touchdowns, setting up our offense with great field position — special teams can help in those areas as well.”
TAKE AWAY THE TAKEAWAY OPPORTUNITIES
With the few turnover chances the Nittany Lions’ offense gets, it has usually squandered. Twelve times in 2014 Penn State has gotten the ball following a defensive interception, a fumble recovery or a missed field goal. Only four times has Penn State turned those turnovers into points – two field goals and two TDs. Take away the takeaways in the UMass game – which the Lions turned into two scores – Penn State’s offense has turned only two of those 10 turnover opportunities into field goals or touchdowns. Conversely, Penn State’s opponents are six of 12 in those situations.
“Overall, let’s be honest,” Franklin said. “Everybody has been really pleased with how our defense has played. But you always want more, you always want better. For us to be a good defense or a great defense or an elite defense, that’s where the turnovers come in.
“That’s one of the things I noticed this week studying Ohio State. Their offense is playing at a high level, but they’re also getting turnovers, which are helping — turnovers for touchdowns and turnovers for field position.”
Even when Penn State’s offense is given a boost by playing on a short field, it regularly comes up short. The Nittany Lions have had seven short-field drives in 2014 – that is, their offense started its drive inside the 50 and in their opponents’ territory. (For those of you keeping score: That would be the 46-, 41-, 38-, 30-, 29-, 28- and 20-yard lines.)
Yet the Nittany Lion offense turned that big-time advantage into a small amount of points – 24 points, to be exact. Take away the UMass game, and it’s just 10 points. In total, over five games that’s a TD, a field goal, a blocked field goal, a fumble and a punt when starting inside the 50. Someone is short-sheeting Penn State in short-field situations.
Penn State’s opponents are doing much better when their offenses start their drives inside PSU’s 50. It’s happened 16 times in six games and 10 in the last two. And of that 10, Michigan and Northwestern scored a combined six times.
DWINDLING DRIVES
Unfortunately for Franklin, it doesn’t look like it’s getting much better.
The length of Penn State’s average offensive drive is dwindling. It began with a robust 46 yards per drive against Central Florida, but has diminished with each game – 39 yards, 24.5, 38, 16 and then finally 18.2 yards at Michigan. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions’ defense has been a rock. The average drive allowed by the PSU “D” has gone from 23.4 yards against UCF to 23, 18, 23, 21 and 18.5 yards.
Believe me, all of this is nothing new to Franklin. Penn State’s head coach, who initially broached the subject this week (I just added up all the numbers), is the king of hard-number bench-marking.
On the more ethereal side, as a psych major at East Stroudsburg, he also knows all about yin and yang.
“…a lot of times our defense has actually held up and done a nice job,” Franklin noted. “But then our offense is now starting backed up. One problem compounds another.”
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