Penn State’s men’s basketball team is set to play Dartmouth Monday at 4 p.m. in the final non-conference game of the season.
Assuming that the Nittany Lions pull out a victory, it will give the program the most non-conference wins ever in a single season.
And assuming Penn State enters Big Ten play at 12-1 on the year, that’s going to look pretty good to the fans. Even so, as the rest of the conference struggles, Penn State doesn’t appear to be getting a whole lot recognition from people for simply winning.
The obvious question most ask is: “Well, who has Penn State played?”
And that’s a fair question. More importantly, how does Penn State’s schedule compare how the rest of the conference?
There are a lot of ways to gauge a schedule, the strength of schedule or SOS is a way to measure (as is somewhat obvious) how difficult the schedule is. Additionally, the Rating Percentage Index, or RPI, is a figure used to rank teams based on wins and losses and strength of schedule.
Basically, the RPI measure looks at whether a program beat good teams or lost to bad teams. Win or lose you want your opponents to go on to win a lot of games. That makes your wins look better and your losses look like they’re coming against good teams.
Right now Penn State sits at No. 36 in the RPI rating and 154 in SOS according to RealTimeRPI.com. Both figures are pretty solid, and as the Big Ten strengthens the SOS should too.
But the whole question is how does Penn State’s schedule and early season success compare to the rest of the conference?
According to KenPom.com, a site that ranks all of NCAA D1 teams based on a wide array of metrics, here are some numbers to digest.
- Of the teams ranked 300+ Penn State has played just one team; the season opener against Morgan State. Maryland is the only team in the conference to avoid teams ranked this low with eight teams in the conference playing two or more of these teams. Indiana and Minnesota both scheduling four each.
- Penn State has scheduled five teams that are ranked between 200-299 in the nation. The rest of the Big Ten has those teams scheduled on an average of four per non-conference schedule. So that’s right in line with Penn State.
- The Nittany Lions are playing six teams ranked from 100-199, the Big Ten average is almost four per non-conference schedule.
- Of teams ranked in the Top 100 of the KenPom ratings, Penn State has played only one — George Washington — and came away with a victory. The rest of the Big Ten is playing those teams at an average of four times per non-conference schedule. Big Ten favorite Wisconsin has seven teams scheduled in the Top 100. Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State will all finish the non-conference schedule without a win against a Top 100 team.
Scheduling is largely based on what you’re expecting to get done in any particular season. One team’s schedule won’t help that team the same way it might help another. Wisconsin for example, expects to be in the national title hunt and has scheduled difficult teams as a result. Penn State is hoping to make a run in the Big Ten and has played teams that will get them ready to do that. Teams that play different styles, different kinds of players, and teams that are better than they get credit for. By the time conference play that comes around they won’t have been much the Nittany Lions haven’t faced. At least that’s what coach Pat Chambers and company are hoping is the case.
Maybe Penn State hasn’t packed the schedule with Top 100 teams, although Akron and USC are getting close to that distinction, but it’s hard to say that the Nittany Lions are playing teams worse than the rest of the conference.
Eleven of the 13 games come against teams rated from 100 to 257 with the conference average being 8 of 13 games. Conversely Penn State has scheduled below the conference average of 300+ teams. So while the Nittany Lions haven’t played as many Top 100 teams as most of the Big Ten, they’ve also avoided far more of the easy victories. And as Michigan State’s loss to Texas Southern and Michigan’s loss to NJIT proved, don’t underrate the value of just winning.
Statistically Penn State is a work in progress and winning in conference will be a test each and every night, but it’s difficult to discredit the Nittany Lions 11-1 start as simply an easy schedule compared to the rest of the Big Ten.
Time will tell if the Nittany Lions are for real but it isn’t quite time to chalk this success up as a red herring.
