In wrapping up Penn State’s 2012 season, let’s get our facts straight:
Statistically, Matt McGloin didn’t get better nearly as much as people thought. But people should have thought better of Sam Ficken than they did.
Head coach Bill O’Brien wasn’t the fourth-down genius fans thought he was. But when it came to matching the offensive efficiency of his old team, the New England Patriots, his Penn State offense came closer than any team in the NFL.
People couldn’t grasp ARob holding onto his early season pass-catching pace. But the sophomore did, grabbing a school record in the process.
Those are the facts. Here are a few more, as we dig into some myths left over from the Nittany Lions’ 2012 season:
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Myth No. 1: McGLOIN McSUCKED UNTIL THIS YEAR. Quarterback Matt McGloin’s numbers in 2012 improved by leaps and bounds from his sophomore and junior years.
The Reality: When you combine his first two years and 22 games as a quasi-starter, McGloin had close to the same numbers as he did as the 12-game starter in 2012. His stats improved two places – a higher completion percentage (the equivalent of two more completions a game) and fewer interceptions. The higher completion rate is endemic to O’Brien’s New England-tight end-oriented attack. Erase McG’s pick-for-all against Florida in the 2011 Outback Bowl — thereby simply identifying it as the outlier it was — and he averaged almost exactly the same number of interceptions per contest in 2010-2011 (.408) that he did in 2012, when he threw just five picks (.416).
The Numbers (2010-11 first, 2012 second): Attempts, 446 to 446; completions, 243 to 270; completion percentage, 54.5% to 60.5%; yards, 3,119 to 3,226; touchdown passes, 22 to 24; interceptions, 14 to 5.
The Bottom-line: To hell with the numbers; McGloin ran the new offense with skill, leadership and confidence, and as a result the Nittany Lions averaged 9.8 more points a game in 2012. But the difference was in the intangibles, not the hard-number tangibles.
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Myth No. 2: NO FERA WAS A TOTAL KICK IN THE BUTT. Penn State’s place-kicking would have been so much better with Anthony Fera instead of Sam Ficken.
The Reality: Total? No. Did Ficken’s four misses cost Penn State a win vs. Virginia? Yes. But odds are Fera never would have played in that game anyway. When Fera transferred to Texas in August, he was already fighting a groin injury. He missed the Longhorns’ first four games, and who’s to say that wouldn’t have happened at Penn State as well – still making Ficken the one on the spot against Virginia.
The Numbers: Fera made 23-of-25 PATs and two field goals (38 and 42 yards) for Texas. He missed a 41-yard potential game-winner against West Virginia and had a 32-yard attempt blocked against Iowa State. (And although he was Penn State’s punter in 2011, he didn’t punt once for UT.) When Fera made 14-of-17 field goal attempts for the Nittany Lions in 2011, his average successful field goal was 31.3 yards. Ficken’s average made FG was from 29.4 yards in 2012. Big difference, huh? After going 2-for-8 to start the year, Ficken made 12 of his last 13, including the final 10.
The Bottom-line: Ficken kicked the game-winner in overtime against Wisconsin.
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MYTH No. 3: ROBBING AROB WOULD GET EASIER. Stiffer competition and more of his games to scout would cause wide receiver Allen Robinson’s production to drop precipitously.
The Reality: Barely happened, with one less catch per game over the second half of the season. Even with increased coverage, the sophomore continued to refine his game under the tutelage of assistant head coach Stan Hixon, who coached wide receivers in the NFL at Washington and Buffalo, as well at LSU.
The Numbers: In 2012, Robinson had 77 receptions (a PSU record) for 1,013 yards, with 11 touchdowns. First six games: 41 receptions for 519 yards, 6.8 catches per game, 12.6 yards per catch, seven touchdowns. Final six games: 36 reception for 494 yards, 6.0 catches per game, 13.7 yards per catch, four touchdowns.
The Bottom-line: Robinson, a unique talent, was forced to improve just to stay the same. And he did.
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MYTH No. 4: PENN STATE IS FIRST ON FOURTH. Penn State was a gambling machine, always going for it and making it on fourth down.
The Reality: O’Brien went for it on 34 fourth downs (making 19, 56 percent), while Penn State’s opponents tried 27 fourth-down conversions (making 10, 37 percent; kudos to the Nittany Lion defense). The difference is just one more gamble by PSU every other game.
The Numbers: Penn State ranked 47th nationally in fourth-down conversion percentage but did rank fourth in attempts (34), behind Air Force (41), Georgia Tech (36) and Tulsa (35). In the first six games of 2012, when Ficken was having problems, Penn State was 13-of-20 on fourth down (65 percent). In the second half of the season, it was just 6-of-14 (43 percent).
The Bottom-line: Against the meat of the schedule and as O’Brien’s confidence in Ficken grew, he coached more conventionally.
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MYTH No. 5: PENN STATE’S OFFENSE ISN’T THE PATRIOTS’. While the Nittany Lions’ offense was often successful, it just couldn’t match what O’Brien accomplished as OC at New England or what the Patriots do now. (BTW: Whose offense could?)
The Reality: In many ways, as far as running an efficient offense, Penn State is closer to the Pats than any team in the NFL. The key offensive stat, to me, is how effective and efficient an offense is on each and every drive – that means scoring and holding onto the ball. Penn State excelled at this in 2012.
The Numbers: After 130 drives in 2012, the Patriots’ offense is No. 1 in the NFL for points per drive (2.92), touchdowns per drive (.338) and turnovers per drive (.062), according to research by FootballOutsiders.com. The numbers for Penn State’s 147 offensive drives are comparable. In fact, this is where the PSU offense would rank in the NFL: points per drive (2.37, third), touchdowns per drive (.285, third) and turnovers per drive (.078, third). Drive numbers for other NCAA teams are unavailable; I compiled the numbers for Penn State using official drive charts. Not included are drives when Penn State was running out the clock.
The Bottom-line: Goes to show you how well O’Brien implemented the Pats’ scheme in his first year at Penn State – a somewhat Herculean task, given that the offense was new for the players and coaches alike, and it was instituted under trying conditions.
Recent Columns:
Penn State Football: Unmasking 10 New Identities for 2013, Dec. 3, 2012
Penn State Football’s Steven Bench: At Quarterback, No. 12 is the Loneliest Number, Nov. 30, 2012
