Penn State Football: Riding The Cycle Theory Again

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Three times 11 equals 51. It’s not new math to Penn State football. 

Penn State’s 11 victories in 2009 marked Penn State’s third 11-win campaign in five years. Whoda thunk it back in 2004, when the Nittany Lyings were losing six straight and eight out of nine?

Since then, from 2005 to 2009, it has been a remarkable stretch for Penn State, winning 51 games and losing only 13 (a 79.7 winning percentage). But it’s hardly rare.

At the heart of that trio of 11-win seasons is Penn State’s stellar 8-1 record against ranked opponents. Huge. Across the seven years that made up the rest of the decade, the Nittany Lions won a total of five games against ranked teams. Small. 

The results of the current bowl season give some credence and credibility to the Nittany Lions’ 2009 schedule. Their only two losses — Ohio State and Iowa — won BCS games against the champions of the Pac 10 and ACC, while the Lions knocked off the third-place team from the SEC. And Temple was actually good. Really. Kind of makes you forget Eastern Michigan and Akron. A little bit, anyway.

No matter how you add it up, a 33-5 mark for 2005, 2008 and 2009 — sandwiched around the 18-win, eight-loss, 472-day Reign of Morelli — is outstanding. It is testament to Joe Paterno’s durability and resiliency.

FIVE DECADES OF 48 OR MORE 

But it’s not new. Look at these five-year stretches of Nittany Lion football, decade after decade: 

• From 1967 to 1971, Penn State won 48 games.
• From 1971 to 1975, Penn State won 52 games.
• From 1982 to 1986, Penn State won 48 games.
• From 1993 to 1997, the first five years of Big Ten, Penn State won 51 games.
• And from 2005 to 2009, Penn State won 51 games.

That’s one 50 or so stretch a decade, for five consecutive decades.

Stunning consistency. 

Jay Paterno was born during the first cycle. And he coached a two-time All-Big Ten quarterback and a Big Ten Offensive MVP in the most recent stretch.

Dick Anderson began coaching at Penn State during the final year of the first cycle. Even with a six-year stint at Rutgers, he has at least been part of every cycle. 

Tom Bradley’s been part of four cycles, Athletic Director Tim Curley four, Bill Kenney three, Mike McQueary two and Jay Paterno two. 

THE CYCLE THEORY 

At one point, this pattern of great runs was known as the Cycle Theory. And it came with a guarantee. From 1966 through 1986, Paterno could promise every recruit who came to Penn State that if the player stayed at PSU for five seasons, he would do at least one of the following — play on an undefeated team, be on a No. 1-ranked team and/or play for the national championship.

Helluva sales pitch. Lasted for 21 years. 

For the class that entered in 1987 and those thereafter, Paterno would have to amend that promise to include this provision: “or play on an 11-win team.” 

Only two Penn State classes failed to achieve Paterno’s promise: the freshmen who entered PSU in 1999 (the squad that year was ranked No. 2 for eight weeks) and 2000. That’s it. And the freshman class of 1999 was, in many ways, cheated, when Minnesota knocked Penn State from the second spot in the polls after a 9-0 start.

The promise even held true for the freshmen entering in 2001, 2003 and 2004, when the Lions won five, three and four games, respectively — if not respectfully (see: Iowa 6, Penn State 4).

By 2005, the players who entered in 2001 (the name Michael Robinson comes to mind) had won 11 games to start yet another cycle. 

Now, you may quibble with the five-year latitude instead of the more traditional four years. But even if you use four years as the yardstick, until the class that entered in 1987, only one class (that which began in 1974), failed to meet the aforementioned criteria. 

The constant, of course, is Paterno. He just finished his 60th season on the Penn State staff, the last 44 as head coach. He’s been the leader every single season, from retooling the defense well into the night an entire summer long early in his career to coaching from the press box after broken a leg and then a bum hip.

He has adjusted. And, to be honest, so has the schedule. 

THE 1990s 

Winning 48 was tougher in the 1980s. And 51 was most certainly more difficult in the 1990s, when from 1993-97 the Nittany Lions played Southern California (three times), Tennessee, Auburn, Texas Tech, Oregon, Louisville (twice), Texas, Pitt (believe it or not) and Florida.

The Nittany Lions were the gridiron equivalent of Carl Hubbell in the 1934 All-Star Game. They were 10-1 in the aforementioned non-con games, losing only 21-6 to Florida in the 1998 Citrus Bowl, the final game of the Lions’ 51-victory, five-year run. 

Penn State was already in the Big Ten Conference, mind you. And it wasn’t all that easy back then. The Lions had a first-place finish and four thirds in their maiden half-decade in the conference.

That was then, this is now. You know the Nittany Lions have canned a lot of Campbells and Progressos over the past five years. Penn State has been a habitual contender, in no small measure because of them.

The way the Nittany Lions and their schedule are now built, they can’t absorb a singular body blow, as they did in 1982, and still win the national championship. 

And yet, the Nittany Lions have been oh-so-close. Finished the 2005 season No. 3 in the nation. No. 3 entering the 10th game of the 2008. No. 4 in the fourth week of the 2009 season.

Two seconds in Michigan. Pesky Iowa. Pesky Iowa. And those damn Buckeyes.

WHAT IF JOE HAD “RETIRED”? 

Now imagine this: What if Paterno had been “retired” after the 2004 season? Ask Michigan — there is just no way Penn State would have won 11, 9, 9, 11 and 11 games in the succeeding five years.

Sure, this is a different era, a different Joe Paterno. He gets his 51 in a different way. But dammit, he gets it. These days that means giving more responsibilities to assistants and many other concessions. He is 83, after all.

Not that college football coaches haven’t been Joe’s age, or thereabouts. He’s just winning, that’s all.

Eddie Robinson amassed 408 wins in 56 seasons at Grambling, but he was 11-18 over his final three seasons before essentially being fired at age 78. Florida State’s Bobby Bowden, three years Paterno’s junior, was recently let go after three 7-6 records over his final four seasons.

The legendary Amos Alonzo Stagg was a head coach until he was 84, but had losing seasons in six of his last seven campaigns, with a 25-45-1 overall mark in that time. Stagg was named national coach of the year after his lone winning season of that stretch (7-2 in 1943 at Pacific), but that was somewhat of a gift from the American Football Coaches Association, an organization he helped found.

The point?

The greats can coach into their late 70s and 80s, but at that age only two college football coaches can party like it’s 1999. Or 1969.

One is 82-year-old John Gagliardi, who has won 471 college football games in 61 years as a head coach at the Division III level, all but 24 at St. John’s University in Minnesota.

The other is Paterno, who will be six wins from 400 when Penn State opens the 2010 season.

THE NEXT CYCLE

So, when does the next cycle start? Or is Penn State in the midst of another 50-win stretch? The Lions are at 22 wins already, counting 2008 and 2009. Joe just needs a 10 and two nines to get another 50 for another cycle that would end in 2012.

I don’t know about you, but that’s close enough to count as the Old Man’s sixth 50-win half-decade. And shoot, he’ll still be a month shy of 86 when he gets it.