James Franklin dashed into the Beaver Stadium tunnel. Penn State fans roared from each side of the hall. The regular season concluded with a 44-7 win over Maryland on Saturday, and everything is still ahead of the Nittany Lions. They’ll play No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship next weekend. The road to a national title will remain open even with a loss.
It’s been a long year. Close games, near upsets, halftime deficits, hostile environments, long-term injuries and, most significantly, another loss to Ohio State. But Penn State hasn’t wavered. Now comes the opportunity Franklin’s long searched for: a chance to take his program to the top of the mountain. What could the potentially treacherous path look like?
PRACTICE (GOOD NEWS)
Franklin kept his postgame message short. He had good news and bad news. The bad news was that Sunday’s practice, which he planned to cancel, was back on. The good news was that the Nittany Lions were headed to the Big Ten title game. And it shouldn’t be debated. That is very, very good news for this program.
This is maybe the most important week of practice of Franklin’s 11-year tenure. With a win over the Ducks, the Nittany Lions can cement the year 2024 alongside the great teams in program history on the north end of a renovated Beaver Stadium. It would bring a championship in the first year of an expanded Big Ten. It would also likely propel Penn State to No. 1 in the nation.
The Nittany Lions haven’t held that top spot since 1997. And never has that seeding mattered more than entering a 12-team College Football Playoff, where a first-round bye means another step closer to a national title. Instead of a four-game postseason stretch, Penn State will have to win just three to hoist the coveted national championship trophy.
WITH A WIN
Forget eight consecutive losses to the Buckeyes. If the Nittany Lions win the Big Ten, they are elite. Finally. The argument that Franklin can’t overcome big games goes out the door. To win the most top-heavy conference in the country in the first year of a novel college football landscape would alter the trajectory of Franklin’s program by leaps and bounds.
Penn State’s fate in the College Football Playoff matters. But even with a loss in the quarterfinals, the Nittany Lions’ 2024 season will be viewed as an immense success, one of the most successful years in the team’s 131-year history. That’s not to say that a conference championship is as important as a national title. But it’s close.
WITH A LOSS
Win or lose, Penn State is locked in for the playoff. That doesn’t appear to be the worry of some fans. The possibility of a first-round home game is the real question mark. And that’s a fair concern, considering the world has almost no idea how conference championship games will impact the seeding of a 12-team format.
But there’s an outlying fact that should play a role in the decision of the playoff’s selection committee. If Ohio State beat Michigan on Saturday, the Nittany Lions were projected to host a first-round matchup, even without appearing in the Big Ten title game. They shouldn’t be penalized for competing in an extra game against unbeaten, top-ranked Oregon.
That being said, a blowout loss could make things interesting. If Penn State falls by three or more scores to the Ducks, a team that inched out a 32-31 win over Ohio State, that could create some conversations about whether the Nittany Lions are truly as good, if not better, than the four teams set to host first-round games.
That fact remains. Penn State was viewed as a top-five team before going to Indianapolis, so whatever happens in the conference championship should hardly alter the committee’s decision regarding the team’s seeding.
BOWL GAMES (QUARTERFINALS, SEMIFINALS)
The first four games of the College Football Playoff will be played at campus sites on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21. The bracket then moves on to the quarterfinals, four games hosted by the Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl, Peach Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls have not yet been assigned to pre-seeded matchups. Instead, they will be assigned in consideration of historic bowl relationships and seeding.
Considering the Nittany Lions haven’t appeared in the Sugar Bowl since 1982, that designation seems the most unlikely. However, they hadn’t appeared in the Peach Bowl until last year, so there’s a possibility, especially if they face an SEC team. What appears most likely is either the Fiesta Bowl or Rose Bowl, which have hosted Penn State seven and six times, respectively.
The winners of the quarterfinals will move to the semifinals and play at either the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 or the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 10. Penn State has played in both bowls at least five times, so the team could realistically play in either if it makes the semifinals.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
The confetti falls from the roof of Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium as Franklin hoists the national championship trophy surrounded by his family and team. Just a year ago, he walked off the same field on the losing end of the Peach Bowl. Now, he and his Nittany Lions are national champions.
Back to reality.
The path is mapped out. Four more wins is all it will take. Penn State hasn’t won a national title since 1986. And in the first year of a 12-team College Football Playoff, in a year that has been tattooed with ambiguity and surprises, the opportunity is there for the taking. Franklin’s dream, though improbable, is possible.
It all begins with practice on Sunday.
