Penn State vs. Buffalo Preview and Score Prediction

Penn State will conclude its nonconference slate with a clash against Buffalo on Saturday at Beaver Stadium in the THON Game.

Following victories over Marshall (45-0) and Temple (27-9), the Nittany Lions are eyeing a 28th consecutive regular season win against nonconference opponents.

Details and Odds

Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026

Time: Noon EDT

Location: Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)

TV: Big Ten Network

Buffalo Record: 1-1

Spread: Penn State -40.5

Series History

The Nittany Lions lead the all-time series 3-1, including three consecutive wins. The Bulls’ lone victory came via a 10-0 shutout in 1900, while Penn State secured victories in 2007, 2015 and 2019.

Overview and Storylines

Buffalo sits at 1-1 overall following an uninspiring 21-17 win over FCS opponent UAlbany in the season opener and a 33-20 loss to FIU, a team Penn State defeated 34-0 a season ago.

The Bulls are coming off a 5-7 campaign a year ago, including a 23-10 loss to Minnesota in their only game against a power conference team. Buffalo typically faces one power conference foe per season and hasn’t emerged victorious since a 42-13 beatdown of Rutgers in 2018, when the Scarlet Knights finished 1-11.

Matchup and Scheme Breakdown

Tony Tokarz is in his first season at Buffalo and first as an offensive coordinator overall, previously serving as a position coach at Florida State and Memphis.

The Bulls have been a run-first team this season, splitting touches between backs Messiah Burch and Terrance Shelton Jr., who average 5.0 and 3.4 yards per carry, respectively. Shelton won’t play on Saturday due to an injury, likely leaving Burch with a heavy workload.

Despite running the ball on 54.7% of plays, most of the team’s production has come through the air. A large majority of throws have been short to intermediate concepts, with only six attempts and two completions beyond 20 yards downfield.

Buffalo has a second-year defensive coordinator in Brian Dougherty, who has very few returning pieces along the defensive front but does have some key starters back in the secondary. Despite that, the pass defense has been the bigger weakness this season, with 386 air yards allowed against the Panthers a week ago.

They base out of a 4-2-5 defense, with a nickel cornerback who’s also a hybrid linebacker, referred to as the “Hoof.”

Players to Watch

The passing attack — and offense as a whole — has run through wide receiver Chance Morrow, who accounts for 18 of the team’s 48 completions (37.5%) and 218 of the team’s 435 receiving yards (50.1%). Remarkably, he’s also responsible for all five of the team’s touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Elijah Holmes was off to a pedestrian start through two games, completing 35 of 61 passes (57.4%) for 250 yards with three touchdowns. He was replaced by backup Jason Wright before halftime in last week’s loss after an apparent knee injury and didn’t practice on Tuesday, meaning Wright is expected to get the nod against Penn State.

Wright has completed 13 of 27 passes this season for 185 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’s a former three-star recruit from the 2025 class.

Defensively, SaVeon Brown has been all over the field for Buffalo, racking up 16 tackles (12 solo) with an interception and two pass breakups in coverage. He’s split time lined up in the slot, in the box and at the line of scrimmage this season playing the Hoof role.

He’s joined by linebacker Stevie Bracy, who’s been another key part of the Bulls defense, accounting for 16 tackles, one sack and one forced fumble.

Up front, Logan Goodwin leads the team with 15 total pressures, including four quarterback hits and a sack, per PFF. He’s been the highest-graded player on the defense and can line up all across the line, including the inside and outside on both the left and right sides.

Keys to Victory

Penn State: The Nittany Lions need to continue to air the ball out and play free against a porous pass defense while keeping wide receiver Chance Morrow in check defensively. 

Buffalo: The Bulls need to spread the ball around and prove there are other viable threats offensively, while disrupting quarterback Rocco Becht’s rhythm defensively via sacks and takeaways.

Score Prediction: Penn State 42, Buffalo 3