Penn State vs. USC Preview and Score Prediction

Big Ten play rolls on for Penn State, which approaches the midpoint of the season with a clash against cross-country foe USC.

The Nittany Lions are looking to rebound from a pair of losses to open conference play and will be aided by a raucous White Out environment against the Trojans.

Here’s everything to know ahead of the matchup.

Details and Odds

Date: Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026

Time: 7:30 p.m. EDT

Location: Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)

TV: NBC / Peacock

USC Record: 5-1

Spread: Penn State -1.5

Series History

USC holds a 6-5 edge in the all-time series, but Penn State won the most recent matchup in 2024, a 33-30 overtime thriller in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Other notable matchups include the 2016 Rose Bowl, a 52-49 Trojan victory, and the 1922 Tournament of Roses Game, the very first matchup ever played in the Rose Bowl Stadium, which USC won 14-3.

Overview and Storylines

The Nittany Lions are stumbling into Week 6 after a 24-20 collapse against Wisconsin and a 34-13 blowout loss to Northwestern the past two weeks, while the Trojans enter at No. 19 in the AP Top 25 following a dramatic victory over Washington. Despite the apparent mismatch in performance this season, Vegas is projecting a narrow Penn State victory, which may surprise some.

One thing going for Penn State is USC’s struggles in road games under head coach Lincoln Riley, particularly when traveling far from home. Under Riley, the Trojans are just 3-8 when flying two or more time zones, with unimpressive wins over Purdue (2025), Nebraska (2025) and Rutgers (2026).

Matchup and Scheme Breakdown

The biggest battle comes between USC’s always dangerous passing corps and Penn State’s lockdown defense backs. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is one of the best in the conference and is putting up big numbers through six games, while the Nittany Lions have been stout against the pass.

Riley is the offensive play-caller and his scheme is built off traditional air raid principles, using wide presnap splits to spread out the defense before attacking vertically. However, the run game is still dangerous and the team builds off it with RPOs and play-action passes to keep linebackers and safeties guessing.

Penn State defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn spent the last two seasons at USC and may have an understanding of what to expect from the Trojans, but that familiarity is a two-way street that Riley will also attempt to exploit.

Defensively, USC is led by coordinator Gary Patterson, who has extensive experience, including 21 seasons as head coach at TCU. Under his tenure, the Horned Frogs produced multiple seasons that led the country in yards allowed.

However, this year’s Trojan defense has been subpar, ranking in the bottom half of the Big Ten in passing yards, rushing yards and points allowed. The unit bases out of a 4-2-5 look, which Patterson is widely credited with popularizing. The unit struggled early in the year but produced its best performance a week ago during a 25-21 win over Washington.

Players to Watch

Jayden Maiava (14) is looking like the next great quarterback produced by Riley, putting up big numbers midway through the season. He’s completed 131 of 191 throws for 1,744 yards with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s a pure pocket passer whose numbers drop off substantially when blitzed, but Penn State has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush this season.

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (17) is the team’s leading receiver with 25 grabs for 372 yards and three touchdowns, but he disappeared last week with no receptions against the Huskies.

Defensive end Luke Wafle (94) is just a true freshman, but the former Nittany Lion recruiting target was a five-star and the No. 7 overall player in the 2026 class, per the 247Sports composite rankings. He’s credited with 22 tackles, a sack and a pass breakup this season.

There are two former Nittany Lions on the Trojan defense in linebacker Ta’Mere Robinson (14) and defensive end Zuriah Fisher (18). Robinson earned his first start last week in place of usual starter Desman Stephens II, who was suspended one game following his hit on Oregon quarterback Dante Moore. Robinson played well last week, so it’s unclear if he’ll retain the starting spot with Stephens back in the lineup.

Keys to Victory

Penn State: Penn State is going to need points to defeat the Trojans, which will require Rocco Becht to play closer to his ceiling than his floor. If Becht showcases improved accuracy and connects on deep balls, the Nittany Lions will have a good chance of pulling it out.

USC: USC’s passing attack will face its biggest challenge of the season against the Nittany Lion secondary, which may cause some issues moving the ball. But if the Trojans can run effectively against a subpar Penn State front, that balance will help the offense move the chains.

Score Prediction

USC 31, Penn State 24

The Nittany Lions have been betting favorites in every game this season, and while that remains true this week, they’ve also been upset twice already. The offense hasn’t clicked since wide receiver Koby Howard’s injury, and the defense is coming off its worst outing of the season against Northwestern.

The Trojans struggle when traveling across the country, and the White Out environment may cause some havoc, but they’ve looked like the much better team this season. The offense has moved the ball well every week, and the defense looked improved in a win over the Huskies.