Penn State’s Road Ahead: From Michigan to a Brutal Home Schedule in 2028

Penn State football will get better. Nittany Lion head coach Matt Campbell said so on Saturday night, after he lost his third Big Ten game in 15 days as Penn State fans witnessed their fifth conference loss in Penn State’s last six games in Beaver Stadium.

“We can’t give them the result that they deserve,” Campbell said in the minutes after USC won, 31-23, in a White Out. “But the reality is, we will, and we will find a pathway forward.”

Here’s what that road ahead looks like:

CAMPBELL’S CONTRACT: Campbell will be driving the blue bus on that road. He’s not going anywhere. To think otherwise is pure folly. In December 2025, he signed an eight-year contract, with total guaranteed compensation of $70.5 million, plus an annual $1 million retention bonus. That’s according to a term sheet — which is not the final official contract — that Penn State made public at the time. See it here.

As for that guarantee, the term sheet stated that “If University terminates Coach, it will pay Coach 100% of the Guaranteed Compensation for the remainder of the employment agreement, subject to Coach’s mitigation.”

There would be liquidated damages if Campbell left before the end of his contract. From the term sheet, it’s not clear who will make the payment to whom. (Liquidated damages are a pre-agreed sum of money or a set formula written into a contract to compensate the injured party if the other side breaks the agreement.) Early firing triggers one-time payments of: $10 million in 2026, $8 million in 2027, $6 million in 2028, $4 million in 2029, etc.

DOLLARS AND SENSE: Penn State doesn’t have that kind of buyout money lying around, especially with the ongoing bills due on the three-quarters of a billion renovation of Beaver Stadium. According to Penn State’s own numbers submitted to the NCAA on Jan. 13, 2026, the “Total Athletics Related Debt” is $534,650,181. There is an “athletic dedicated endowment” of $251 million. Penn State will very likely take on even more debt to finish the stadium.

Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft did say, in an open letter to “Nittany Nation in June 2026, “Together, we’ve built one of the strongest financial foundations in college athletics, securing more than $1 billion in guaranteed future revenue while dramatically increasing philanthropic support for our student-athletes and programs.”

According to a recent article by The Athletic, Penn State spends $29-32 million on its football roster, ranking the Nittany Lions No. 7 in the Big Ten. Ohio State and Oregon, at payrolls of $48-52 million for their rosters, are at the top, followed by the trio of Indiana, USC and Michigan at $36-$40 million. Passage of the Protect College Sports Act could push the payout of rev-share money — i.e., paying players in all sports — upwards to $48 million. That’s a stratosphere Penn State cannot afford.

All of which to say: Campbell is going to need ’mo money, not less, as he builds and rebuilds his roster without the benefit of two dozen former Iowa State players who gave him — and Penn State — a new hometown discount. Of course, you usually get what you pay for.

KRAFT’S CONTRACT: Fans seem angrier at Penn State’s vice president for intercollegiate athletics than the guy making the timeout, running back and three-man front decisions. In August 2024, the Penn State Board of Trustees approved a contract extension through June 30, 2032, for Kraft. Penn State reported that “the average annual value of guaranteed compensation over eight years is $2.26 million per year with the opportunity for an additional performance-based bonus of up to $350,000 annually based on attainment of specific goals, including for academic and competitive.” I couldn’t find any language anywhere on buyout terms for Kraft.

NEXT WEEK’S GAME vs. MICHIGAN: Battle of the mids at 3:30 p.m. next Saturday on CBS in The Big House in Ann Arbor, Mich. First-year former Big 12 head coach, succeeding a fired coach, uninspiring play on the field, a fan base up in arms, a polarizing QB. Sound familiar? That’s Michigan, under head coach Kyle Whittingham. DraftKings has Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. 

The Wolverines beat mystery team Oklahoma, got credit for beating Western Michigan and actually did defeat mighty UTEP. They played Iowa (20-19 loss) and Minnesota (20-14) both close. Michigan had a bye on Saturday, so it’s either rested or spent all that extra time inside their maize-and-blue heads and could come out flat. Or, Penn State could.

THE 2026 REMAINING SLATE: Expect (much) smaller home crowds in Beaver Stadium for surprising Purdue (Oct. 31), Minnesota (Nov. 14) and Rutgers (Nov. 21). Purdue is 2-1 in the Big Ten and just walloped Minnesota, 41-13. Washington is a continent away but fading fast (Nov. 7) and Maryland (Nov. 28) is relatively next door.

You could make a case for almost every opponent — OK, maybe not the Terps. Rutgers played USC close and has a coach on the hot seat. Mike Locksley’s seat may be in cinders by Thanksgiving weekend. Figure 4-2 for the second half of Penn State’s season, though matching the 3-3 start may be realistic.

THE RECRUITING CLASS: According to the Rivals/On3 team recruiting rankings, Penn State is currently ranked No. 20 for the Class of 2027, with 22 commits — 15 three-stars, seven four-stars and zero five-stars. The Nittany Lions are in a neighborhood with some very familiar faces: UCLA with PA native Bob Chesney is No. 17, Nebraska with former Penn Stater Matt Rhule is No. 18 and Virginia Tech with CJF is No. 19. Maybe it’s keeping up with the Joneses, but it sure ain’t beating them.

The early window signing period for high school seniors is Wednesday-Friday, Dec. 2-4; same for mid-year junior college transfers. The national signing date for any recruits who did not sign during the early window is Feb. 3, 2027.

THE PORTAL CLASS: The NCAA announced on Wednesday — talk about taking your time — that the transfer portal window will be open for 10 days starting Monday, Jan. 4. Players on teams still playing in the postseason get an extension. Even if it goes bowling, Penn State’s season will be completed by then. By New Year’s, Campbell & Co. should know which of their current players are departing and they also should have targeted who they want to go after in that limited window. The date for players not still playing to declare for the NFL Draft is Jan. 13.

THE 2027 SEASON: New stadium, new higher prices, new starting quarterback, possibly dozens of new players, renewed pressure and higher expectations — especially if the Nittany Lions’ 2026 record is similar to its 7-6 2025 record. The schedule, which includes five conference away contests:

Non-conference: Syracuse (H), Maine (H), Temple (H)
Big Ten, home (dates tba): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Washington
Big Ten, away (dates tba): Illinois, Indiana, Oregon, Purdue, Wisconsin

THE 2028 SCHEDULE: Absolutely brutal and getting tougher by the minute. Campbell better have the Nittany Lions holistically and globally fully grown forward by that point. The schedule:

Non-conference: Ball State (H), UMass (H), Syracuse (A)
Big Ten, home (dates tba): Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, UCLA
Big Ten, away (dates tba): Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers, USC