With Penn State just days away from its Saturday evening season opener against West Virginia, there are still plenty of unanswered questions as well as reasons for Nittany Lion fans to be optimistic about the upcoming campaign as Penn State looks to win the Big Ten for the first time since 2016. With a new quarterback and a new group of defensive backs and wideouts, Penn State is not without uncertainties, but with talent waiting in the wings to prove itself and a nasty defense to back it all up, the program has plenty to make good on a No. 7 preseason ranking.
Sometimes the margin between a double-digit win season and an otherwise unremarkable year is as small as a few details here or there. With that in mind, here’s what will happen if Penn State’s season goes well, and what will likely happen if it doesn’t.
It Goes Well:
- Allar Blossoms: For as excited as everyone is to see probable starting quarterback Drew Allar in his role, there’s very little data at all about how he’ll handle big moments and how often he’ll be able to avoid big mistakes. There’s not much question he has the physical tools, but much of what he has between the ears remains unknown to the general public. If Penn State is going to do something of note this year, it’ll start with Allar turning into the player people think he can become sooner rather than later. The Nittany Lions can probably get away with him easing into the role in the early stage of the schedule, but the sooner they can take the training wheels off the better.
- Trench Warfare: Penn State has the running backs and theoretically the offensive line [finally] to make good on the talents of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If the Nittany Lions are going to have a good season, winning in the trenches on both sides of the ball — and getting to quarterback against the big boys — will be crucial. Singleton and Allen can make up for some weaknesses, but if all they have to do is hit the holes, life will be easier for everyone. Remember all those negative Saquon Barkley carries? Can’t avoid them all, but good blocking and a good passing game sure can help.
- Catch Them All: Penn State has some serious questions at receiver. That’s not to say the young guys looking to answer them won’t be able to do so, but the Nittany Lions aren’t going to beat anyone of note if they can’t catch the ball with some consistency. If this group can contribute on a regular basis, it’ll only make things easier for the running game. Once that happens, Penn State becomes a tough team to beat. That’ll start with KeAndre Lambert-Smith, the poster child of being able to show flashes.
- Late Game Fortitude: You could write a book about some of the close games Penn State has lost and how those games were lost. In the interest of brevity, it’s safe to say that whatever the reason might be, Penn State will need to prove it can go out and win/survive those final 10 minutes against Ohio State and Michigan. With new clock rules, those games look to be maybe an entire drive shorter than usual and Penn State often needs as many snaps as it can get to stay in those games. If the Nittany Lions are going to win this year, it won’t be because they blew out the big names; it’ll be because they learned how to win the close ones against them.
It Doesn’t Go Well:
- Not So Special: Not the most sexy item on the list but winning requires good special teams units, and if the Nittany Lions can’t flip the field in key moments then they won’t win key games. Penn State’s last win against Ohio State came via a special teams play and the Nittany Lions are certainly capable of being the team that makes the mistake this time around. Kicking might not win you a game, but it sure can lose you one.
- Stop, Drop and Roll: The opposite of what is stated above, but if Penn State can’t figure out its receiver room it probably can’t win the games that will define the season. That’s not exactly rocket science, but sometimes weaknesses aren’t a huge surprise. That can make them all the more annoying when they aren’t solved. Drops can kill a season. Just ask 2018.
- Good, Not Elite: Allar is always going to be held to a standard higher than what he’ll probably ever actually pull off on the field, but there is a real possibility that “good prospect” doesn’t automatically equate to “polished right now” and that Allar’s growing pains are a bit too big to overcome. For all of Allar’s talent and ability there are a ton of unknowns about how he will play when it matters, and until we actually see it happen it’s always going to be possible it doesn’t go well.
- Almost: There are some questions as to how good Penn State’s safeties are this year, and while there’s no reason to think Terry Smith can’t cook up another quality unit, it’s safe to assume that the last line of defense is still important. Penn State has managed solid safety play for a while now, but if the defensive back group can’t living up to its billing, that won’t help the cause any, especially against more than a few passing-heavy teams on the schedule. This was a concern in the spring; no reason it can’t be one in the fall.
