The victory is a foregone conclusion.
The final score will be lopsided.
Penn State’s record will no doubt jump to a somewhat misleading 3-1.
And so the most important numbers coming from Penn State’s game on Saturday against Eastern Michigan in Beaver Stadium will have to be something else.
And, in some cases, Joe Paterno and his staff have to hope they will be something new.
If Penn State is able to achieve anything of great importance in its match-up against a visiting lower-echelon Mid-American Conference opponent like Eastern Michigan, it will have to be in the following areas that count.
And that’s beginning with the Nittany Lions’ lack of a passing or kicking game.
1.) ONE. IT BEATS NONE.
One touchdown pass. The Nittany Lions need one. If they get one against Eastern Michigan, it will be their first of 2011.
Right now, they have zero. That’s on sub-par with Oregon State, Central Florida, San Jose State, Alabama-Birmingham and Florida Atlantic — the only other of the 120 BCS teams who do not have TD tosses in 2011.
They need to score through the air to show just about everyone that they can…can’t they?
2.) THREE, BUT NOT BY TWO.
The Lions need three catches on Saturday by someone other than Derek Moye and Justin Brown. Moye (14) and Brown (10) have accounted for 24 of the Nittany Lions’ 46 receptions. And no other Penn State player has four for the entire season. Immediately after the Temple game, Paterno said he needed to get “other people” involved in the passing game.
On Tuesday, he recanted. I say he was the right the first time. He needs to recant his recant. Why? Because the Nittany Lions seemingly can’t pass to their tight end and backs. Through three games, only four of their 54 first-down passes have been to a running back.
Brandon Beachum won’t be catching any balls on Saturday; the Collegian has reported he will be out with a sprained ankle.
Joe Suhey have good hands and the ability to run well in the open field after getting the ball. And maybe trying to get Silas Redd into some open space is a good idea as well – if only so future opponents see him as a dual threat.
Plus, Nittany Lion tight ends have caught four passes – all in the person of Andrew Szczerba, who is tied for third on the team in receptions. (And yes, we know he fumbled away one of those catches.)
3.) THREE. AT LEAST TWO OF THEM.
As in three points. As in field goals. As in at least making a pair.
Folks should be more up in feet about the place-kickers than up in arms about the quarterbacks. The Nittany Lions have made just one field goal in six attempts in 2011 — a 43-yarder by junior Evan Lewis against Alabama.
The position is in turmoil, especially when coming on the insoles of a 2010 season when two-year starter Collin Wagner made 20 of 25 field goal attempts and all 34 PAT tries.
Lewis – a star high school quarterback at Gettysburg who converted to wide receiver as a walk-on at PSU — missed two three-pointers against Indiana State (from 38 and 47 yards) and two against Temple (45, 35). Sam Ficken, a highly-touted freshman scholarship kicker from Indiana, had his only attempt, a 49-yarder against Temple, blocked.
Penn State wouldn’t be in this predicament if Anthony Fera hadn’t gotten into some trouble off the field and been suspended. It’s kind of odd, though. When he came back, he’s been the Lions’ punter – with one blocked against Temple – but not the place-kicker. And that may be his greatest use. As a senior in high school in Texas, he was 37 of 39 on PATs, made 8 of 9 field goals (with a long of 58) and had 55 of his 60 kickoffs go for touchbacks.
It’s only Fera — Penn State desperately needs a modicum of success in its kicking game.
4.) NINE…IF NOT NEIN.
Asking the Penn State defense to pitch a shutout may be asking too much. But holding the opposition to single digits – for what would be the second time in four games – is not. Especially since Michigan held EMU to a single field goal last week.
This veteran-laden group is the core of the Penn State team, and to further establish its identify and bolster its confidence — not that guys like Drew Astorino and Michael Mauti are lacking in that direction – another lockdown performance is necessary.
A big handful of single-digit defensive performances, even more than shutouts, are the hallmark of a landmark Penn State defense. In 1968-69, Penn State held the opposition to nine points 13 out of 22 games. The 1973 crew headed by Randy Crowder and Ed O’Neil started the season with six straight such performances.
And very recently, in both 2008 and 2009, the Lion D had five opponents to single digits.
The key will be seeing if the Nittany Lion backups can bend but not break in the final quarter, when the Penn State bench is cleared.
5.) SIXTY-SEVEN.
We’re talking percent. If the Nittany Lions complete two out of every three passes, it will a big step forward as far as ball control, play-calling – especially on first down — and using PSU’s full complement of receivers (see No. 2) are concerned.
Actually, over 70 percent isn’t asking too much. There are six Big Ten quarterbacks ranked in the national Top 45 for passing efficiency and three of them are completing more than 70 percent of their passes – Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson (75.7), Illinois’ Nathan Scheelhaase (71.4) and Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins (71.6).
For comparison’s sake, Penn State completed 60 percent against Indiana State, 61 percent against Temple (Matt McGloin was at 68 percent) and a woeful 30.7 percent against Alabama.
6.) NINETY THOUSAND.
That’s as in 90,000 fans who actually show up for the noon kick-off on Saturday – not tickets sold. If they do, they would represent 84 percent of Beaver Stadium’s listed capacity of 106,572.
And that would represent about 5,000 more than what showed up three weeks ago against Indiana State (doesn’t that seem like such a long time ago?). Remember, that was the season opener, so there was pent-up demand. And it was Labor Day weekend, so many fans made a longer stay of it.
Now, the way much of the Nittany Nation has reacted to Penn State’s 2-1 start and its associated quarterback woes, you’d think a plague of locusts had descended upon Happy Valley.
That, plus empty seats due to STEP, a water-logged weather report and an(other) opponent from MAC, could result in a lot of extra legroom in The Beav on Saturday.
Extra legroom everywhere but the Penn State coaches’ box high above Beaver Stadium, that is. Figure on everyone there squeezing together again to make room for Joe’s Seat No. 4.
