I’m not saying a victory over LSU in Friday’s Capital One Bowl game would be Penn State’s biggest win over the past five years — heck, let’s say the past 10 years — but it would be in the top five. For sure.
And as much as you may hate the phrase, it is the kind of signature win the Penn State program craves despite its 50-13 record over the past five seasons.
Those wins have been few and very far between. Only in six of the past 10 years have the Nittany Lions managed to win even one game against a ranked team.
Here’s the breakdown: Over the 112 games Penn State has played since its 2000 season opening loss against No. 15 Southern California, only one-third have been against ranked teams. And amazingly, a mere seven of those 37 ranked games have been against nonconference foes.
And against those seven, Penn State did not fare very well: 0-2 vs. Southern California, 0-1 vs. Miami, 0-1 vs. Notre Dame, 1-1 vs. Nebraska and 1-0 vs. Tennessee. That’s a 2-5 mark. Ugh.
Now tell me that the Nittany Lions (10-2), ranked 13th in the final BCS standings, don’t need to beat Southeastern Conference powerhouse and 12th-ranked LSU (9-3) in the Capital One Bowl game, which kicks off at 1 p.m. on ABC-TV?
The Tigers represent the toughest conference in all of college football and the kind of non-con win the Lions need, and the kind of win they haven’t had since Nebraska in 2002, save for a 20-10 victory over Tennessee of the SEC in 2007 Outback Bowl.
Joe Paterno begs to differ.
During Penn State’s bowl media day over two weeks ago, one of the Nittany Lion players allowed that although his team won 10 games in 2009, it still had something to prove, especially since it lost key games to Iowa and Ohio State. That idea was floated by Paterno. The Penn State coach quickly burst that bubble.
“Well, I don’t look at it that way,” said Paterno, who enters the bowl game with a record 23-11-1 mark. “We are playing a really fine team with a great fan base. It’s going to be an exciting game.
“And I think the kids are…a little bit too much humble pie. I think they did a good job (in 2009). One of them said something to me: ‘Oh, I belong here.’ Just look at that you won 10 games. Ten games, it’s rough to win these days. I don’t care who you play or when you play them.”
A RANK RECORD
Need more convincing that a Lion win over LSU is necessary to truly establish Penn State as more than a conference upper echelon team? Or that a win would help to erase the postseason stigma faced by the Big Ten Conference? Try this.
From 2000-2004, Penn State was a horrendous 3-18 against ranked teams. The second half of the decade it has been much better, going 9-7 against ranked opponents. Overall, though, over the past decade Penn State has been a woeful 12-25 against ranked opponents.
Since its renaissance that began with the 2005 season, the Penn State football team has only beaten two teams that were ranked in the Top 10 when they faced the Nittany Lions. And both times that team was Ohio State.
The 16th-ranked Nittany Lions beat the sixth-ranked Ohio State 17-10 in a raucous Beaver Stadium on Oct. 8, 2005. Penn State, ranked third at the time, also beat the No. 9 Buckeyes 13-9 last season at the Horseshoe. A 40-7 pounding of No. 8 Nebraska in 2002 was the only other win by Penn State against a Top 10 team since Sept. 18, 1999, when the third-ranked Nittany Lions won 27-23 at eighth-ranked Miami (Fla.)
And yet, Forbes has Penn State ranked third in value among all college football teams.
Clearly, rather than the accumulation of quality victories against ranked teams, the Penn State brand and the accompanying cash flow are still built primarily on Joe Paterno. Also important are the school’s clean-cut image, its loyal fans, a packed home stadium, a half-million alumni and overall victories over the past five years.
VICTORIES OVER RANKED OPPONENTS
To be fair, Penn State can’t always determine if an opponent is ranked. Paterno likes to point out that when Syracuse was added to the Penn State schedule years ago, it was atop the Big East. When the Orange came to town this fall, they were much less.
Still, adding some national names to the non-conference schedule would add some Top 25 wallop.
As it stands, the rankings of the dozen Top 25 teams Penn State beat from 2000-2009 were definitively bottom-heavy; most were in the bottom two-thirds of the rankings: 6, 8, 9, 14, 17, 17, 18, 19, 19, 22, 22 and 22.
Specifically, here are the three ranked opponents Penn State beat in 2000-2004: at No. 22 Northwestern (2001), No. 8 Nebraska (2002) and at No. 19 Wisconsin (2002).
Here are the nine ranked opponents Penn State beat in 2005-2009: No. 18 Minnesota (2005), No. 6 Ohio State (2005), No. 14 Wisconsin (2005), No. 22 Florida State in the 2006 Orange Bowl, No. 17 Tennessee in the 2007 Outback Bowl, No. 19 Wisconsin (2007), No. 22 Illinois (2008), at No. 9 Ohio State (2008) and No. 17 Michigan State (2008).
Almost half of those have been against Wisconsin (three) and Ohio State (two).
Missing from the above numbers are some big games, like the 31-10 blasting of Notre Dame in 2007, the win over unranked Texas A&M in the 2007 Alamo Bowl and the 2009 loss to unranked Iowa. True, the Hawkeyes were not in the Top 25 when they beat the Nittany Lions back in September.
Oh for the early 1980s. In 1982, on their way to the national title, the Nittany Lions faced the No. 1, No, 2, No. 4, No. 5 and No. 13 ranked teams in the country. They went 4-1 against those squads and were 11-1 overall.
I covered that team from beginning to end that season, and never once do I remember Paterno lamenting that winning 10 games “is tough these days.” No days in Penn State football were as difficult when it came to a demanding schedule.
So what happened? Easy. An Akron here, an Eastern Michigan there. A Kent State here, a Florida International there. Cash over national clashes.
And that’s why these days a legitimate game against a legitimate nonconference opponent — such as Louisiana State in Orlando — takes on added importance.
SWEET HOME ALABAMA
Remember, too, that SEC giant Alabama is on Penn State’s schedule early in 2010. After opening with Youngstown State at home on Sept. 4, the Nittany Lions travel to Alabama on Sept. 11.
If Penn State falls to LSU with an experienced QB in Daryll Clark and a trio of top-notch linebackers, how can they expect to beat (perhaps) the defending national champions with a signal-caller who is New(some) and a defense minus Jared Odrick and three Linebacker U honor students?
The Tide of headlines heading into that game will feature LSU and the results of Cap One, that’s for certain. The focus depends on how the Nittany Lions fare against LSU. And that’s just another reason the Nittany Lions need to pull rank on the Tigers on New Year’s Day.
