Can Penn State Quarterback Sean Clifford Be the Next Kenny Pickett?

Compare Sean Clifford’s three years as Penn State’s starting quarterback with Kenny Pickett’s first three as the starter at Pitt and you come away thinking two things:

1.) The numbers are eerily similar.

2.) If Clifford is going to pull what Pickett did in 2021 – take a strong jump in production, wins and draftability – it will take a great year from his offensive line.

Because that’s what happened to Pickett last season.

For the former Pitt QB, the leap from 2021 to 2022 was stunning: Pickett threw for 42 TDs and over 4,300 yards last season, while leading Pitt to 11 wins. He now stands on the precipice of being a top-round selection in the NFL Draft.

Can that be Clifford in 2022?

Yes, Lloyd, I’m saying there’s a chance — and a bigger one than you may think. That is if Penn State’s young offensive line improves dramatically under third-year line coach Phil Trautwein. Of course, that is a big — and annual — if.

In 2021, Penn State ranked No. 118 in the country in running the ball. And when it came to pass-blocking the Nittany Lions were not much better.

According to Pro Football Focus, Penn State’s passing game last season ranked No. 81 (a 67.8 rating) and its pass blocking ranked No. 65 (63.9) out of 130 major college teams.

Pitt, on the other hand, was ranked No. 1 in pass offense (92.4 rating), and No. 37 in pass blocking (71.5), according to PFF.

But let’s take a closer look at those two key categories over the past four years — at one time, not too long ago, Pitt stunk at both of them. Then, they got better and, ipso facto, Pickett did too. He clearly had a (literal) hand in the improved passing game, but not so much with the pass blocking, though a quarterback’s quick release reflects well on the O-line.

So, Pickett and Pitt’s passing improvement…it is a chicken and egg thing. Could be the same for Penn State, Cliff and his offensive line. Here are the Pro Football Focus numbers for the past four seasons, among the 130 major college football teams:

The 2021 season is when it all came together for Pitt. Why? At least in part because the Panthers’ O-line was an experienced group, with a total of 69 starts entering last season. That translated into a record-breaking year for Pickett, and the Biletnikoff Trophy for Panther sophomore wide receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TDs).

(And look out: All five O-line starters are back for Pitt in 2022, with a combined 130 starts. They’re all local players, too, from Pittsburgh, Butler, Maryland’s DeMatha Catholic, and Paterson and Montclair in New Jersey. And Pitt is reloading at QB, with USC transfer Kedon Slovis, a two-year starter and the Pac-12’s freshman of the year in 2019 and first-team all-conference quarterback in 2020.)

Here’s the money stat for Penn State’s offense in 2022: 55. As in 55 returning starts along the offensive line.

That number is a bit deceiving, since 20 of those are courtesy of Cornell transfer Hunter Nourzad. The remainder are from Caedan Wallace (19), Juice Scruggs (13), Bryce Effner (2) and Olu Fashanu (1). Highly-touted Landon Tengwall appeared in three games in 2021 and will likely start in 2022. Sal Wormley, another potential starter, missed 2021 due to injuries and played three games in 2020.

How good the Nittany offensive line plays in 2022 will depend, to a decent degree, how well Clifford plays in 2022 — assuming the sixth-year senior and three-year starter beats out rookie Drew Allar for the starting job.

And if Clifford does, Pickett provides a clear roadmap of what a final (final) seminal senior season can truly look like.

In Clifford’s favor is that this season will be his second in an offensive system run by the same offensive coordinator, Mike Yurich. Since he committed to Penn State on July 13, 2015, and enrolled in 2017, Clifford has been under the tutelage of a dizzying array of offensive coordinators, and that’s not even counting John Donovan, who was Penn State’s OC when Clifford committed. They are:

Joe Moorhead (2017), Ricky Rahne (2017 Fiesta Bowl, 2018-19), Tyler Bowen (2019 Cotton Bowl), Kirk Ciarrocca (2020) and Yurcich (2021-2022).

Pickett only had two offensive coordinators at Pitt — Shawn Watson (2017-18) and Mark Whipple (2019-21) — but the idea of flourishing after a couple of years with the stability of one OC, as Pickett did, could portend good things for Cliffird as well.

BY THE NUMBERS

Let’s take a closer look at Clifford’s three years as Penn State’s (mostly) full-time starter, from 2019-21, and compare them with Pickett’s three years as Pitt’s full-time starter, in 2018-2020, before his breakout Year 4 as a starter. Cliff’s numbers are a bit better, almost across the board, and are much better when it comes to tossing TDs.

Not included in this comparison is Pickett’s first start at Pitt, deep into the 2017 season. He scored three TDs – one passing, two running – in a 24-14 stunner against No. 2 Miami, whose defense that day was coached by Manny Diaz, now PSU’s defensive coordinator.

Finally, to get an idea of the kind of jump we are talking about for Clifford, let’s compare his and Pickett’s stats from only 2021. You’ll note that Pickett was 1-0 vs. Top 25 teams; Pitt’s season included wins over Clemson, Tennessee and North Carolina, all unranked when they met, and Pickett opted out of a bowl game appearance against Michigan State (which Pitt lost).. Clifford faced a tougher slate and was hampered by injuries. For context: Penn State averaged 3.21 yards per rush in 2021, while Pitt averaged 3.98 yards per rush.