James Franklin’s 100 Games and Penn State Contract: I Crunched the Numbers so You Don’t Have to

This was a big week, both good and bad, for James Franklin and Penn State.

Franklin, who is in his eighth season at PSU, signed a six-year contract extension, pushing his deal with Penn State until Dec. 31, 2031.

The Nittany Lions boss, who turns 50 on Feb. 2, 2022, also coached his 100th game at Penn State. He lost that game, 30-27, to No. 12 Michigan State in the snow in East Lansing.

The Nittany Lions are now 7-5 after starting 2021 with a perfect 5-0. In the past two seasons, they are 11-10 overall and 8-10 in the Big Ten Conference.

That’s a lot to absorb. So I pulled out my notebooks, past columns and media guides, and scoured the Web. Then I crunched (and re-crunched) the numbers, so you didn’t have to. I will caution you to what Mark Twain once wrote:

“Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’”

The context that Franklin came to Penn State in 2014, with the program still under sanctions, definitely colors the 2014-15 seasons and heightens his impact and magnifies his early success. That’s why many of the following numbers include a breakout of “since 2016.”

A few words about that new contract, engineered by Franklin’s new agent Jimmy Sexton, no doubt the head coach’s biggest portal pick-up in 2021:

According to what Penn State athletics has posted on its website, it officially kicks in Jan. 1, 2022. Assuming the old contract (announced in February 2020) is still viable through Dec. 31, Franklin still gets a retention bonus of $500,000 on the last day of the year and another  $200,000 if Penn State goes to a bowl game. That contract also stipulated that if Franklin wanted to buy out his contract between now and Dec. 31, it would cost him $4 million and if Penn State wanted to let Franklin go between now and Dec. 31, it would cost PSU $26 million — a bargain, with tongue only partly in cheek, given the new contract’s terms, which up the cost of a Penn State buyout to $72 million in 2022.

Part of the new math: Beginning in 2022, Franklin’s salary (counting an annual $1 million loan against his life insurance and an annual retention bonus of $500,000) will be $8.5 million, which equals $23,287.67 per day — about $1,000 an hour.

Penn State’s potential future rankings on Selection Day of the College Football Playoff (CFP) could help Franklin’s mega-dollar extension make a bit more sense:

In the next two or three years (max), the playoffs will expand to 8 or 12 teams. No doubt that Penn State AD Sandy Barbour is betting high-stakes dollars Franklin can get Penn State back to where it was from 2016-19, when on Selection Day it was ranked fifth, ninth, twelfth and tenth — all big money spots, with the allure of a potential extra home game, if the CFP goes to 12 teams.

Here’s a look at Franklin’s 100 games, b(u)y the numbers:

FRANKLIN’S 100-GAME RECORD. A near-perfect bell curve.

Games 1-26                14-12 (.538)

Games 27-50              19-5 (.792)

Games 51-74              20-4 (.833)

Games 75-100            14-12 (.538)

Total                            67-33 (.667)

Bowl Games:              3-3

Big Ten Conference    43-28 (.606)

Big Ten East                30-20 (.600)

Big Ten West              13-8 (.610)

vs. Ohio State             1-7; 1-5 since 2016

vs. Michigan               3-5; 3-3 since 2016

vs. Michigan State      3-5; 3-3 since 2016

FRANKLIN NATIONAL HONORS

2016: B10 title, B10 Coach of the Year, National COY

New Year’s 6 Bowls: Rose, Fiesta, Cotton (2-1)

AP Final Rankings: No. 7 (2016), No. 8 (2017), No. 17 (2018), No. 9 (2019)

College Football Playoff Rankings (Selection Day; top 4 made playoffs):

2016 – No. 5

2017 – No. 9

2018 – No. 12

2019 – No. 10

FRANKLIN vs. TOP 25 OPPONENTS

2014-21: 11-20

2016-21: 11-14

2019-21: 6-7

2020-21: 2-5

True road: 2-13

FRANKLIN vs. TOP 10 OPPONENTS

Overall: 2-13

2016-21: 2-10

2019-21: 0-5

Wins: Ohio State (2016), Wisconsin (2016)

FRANKLIN vs. TOP 5 OPPONENTS

Overall: 1-8. Win: No. 2 Ohio State (2016)

FRANKLIN IN TOP 10 vs. TOP 10 MATCHUPS. When Penn State and its opponents were both ranked in the Top 10 when they met.

Overall: 1-5. Win: No. 8 PSU vs. No. 6 Wisconsin (2016)

CLOSE, BUT… In games decided by 8 points or less, Franklin was 19-14 leading up to 2020.

Overall            Big Ten

2014-15           6-6                   3-5

2014-21           21-20               14-15

2016-21           15-14               10-11

2020-21           2-6                   1-6

2020 REDUX. Penn State faced eight opponents in both 2020 and 2021. The Nittany Lions scored fewer points in 6 of the 8 rematches. They gave up fewer points in 6 of the 8 rematches. A comparison:

                        2020                2021                         2 Years

Illinois             W, 56-23         L, 20-18 (9OT)             1-1

Indiana            L, 36-35           W, 24-0                       1-1

Iowa                L, 41-21           L, 23-20                       0-2

Maryland        L, 35-19           W, 31-14                     1-1

Michigan         W, 27-17         L, 21-17                       1-1

Michigan St.   W, 39-24         L, 30-27                       1-1

Ohio State      L, 38-25           L, 33-24                       0-2

Rutgers           W, 23-7           W, 28-0                       2-0

Total                4-4                   3-5                               7-9

RECRUITING RANKINGS. I used the 247 Composite rankings, since the industry heavyweight utilizes an algorithm that “complies rankings and ratings listed in the public domain by the major media recruiting services.” Franklin’s nine-year average is a ranking of No. 15; his average over the past three seasons (2020-22) is No. 14.

Year    Ranking

2022    5

2021    21

2020    15

2019    12

2018    6

2017    15

2016    20

2015    14

2014    24

CONTRACTS. The contract Franklin agreed to this week with Penn State is his fourth in 7 years, 10 months.

No.      Announced     Ensuing W/L Record

1          Jan. 11, 2014               25-15

2          Aug. 18, 2017              31-8

3          Feb. 26, 2020              11-9

4          Nov. 23, 2021               0-1

COMPENSATION AND BUYOUTS. This includes base, guarantee, bonuses, insurance loan, and COY (2016) and B10 title (2016) bonuses. For 2014-21, dollars also includes bowl bonus. For 2022-31, the dollars do not include potential bonuses for bowls, COY and B10 title, which are all part of the new contract, but they do include annual retention bonus.

                        Salary $           CJF Buyout      PSU Buyout

2014                $4.5 mil

2015                $4.6 mil

2016                $5.4 mil

2017                $4.9 mil           $2 mil              $25.8 mil                                

2018                $5.0 mil           $1 mil              $22.5 mil

2019                $5.95 mil         $1 mil              $21.4 mil

2020                $6.7 mil           $5 mil              $32 mil

2021                $7.2 mil           $4 mil              $26 mil

2022                $8.5 mil           $12/$8 mil      $72 mil

2023                $8.5 mil           $6 mil              $64 mil

2024                $8.5 mil           $2 mil              $56 mil

2025                $8.5 mil           $2 mil              $48 mil

2026                $8.5 mil           $1 mil              $40 mil

2027                $8.5 mil           $1 mil              $32 mil

2028                $8.5 mil           $1 mil              $24 mil

2029                $8.5 mil           $1 mil              $16 mil

2030                $8.5 mil           $1 mil              $8 mil

2031                $8.5 mil           —                    —

2022 PENN STATE SCHEDULE. Front-loaded, on the road early at Purdue and Auburn, plus Ohio State and Michigan are back-to-back. 2021 records in parenthesis (composite: 82-61, .659).

Sept. 3 – at Purdue (8-4)

Sept. 10 – vs. Ohio University (3-9)

Sept. 17 – at Auburn (6-6)

Sept. 24 – vs. Central Michigan (7-4)

Oct. 1 – vs. Ohio State (10-2)

Oct. 8 – at Michigan (11-1)

Oct. 15 – vs. Illinois (5-7)

Oct. 22 – bye

Oct. 29 – vs. Michigan State (10-2)

Nov. 5 – at Indiana (2-10)

Nov. 12 – vs. Maryland (6-6)

Nov. 19 – vs. Minnesota (8-4)

Nov. 26 – at Rutgers (5-7)