The road to elite is paved with good — even great — intentions.
And high expectations.
James Franklin meant well back on September 29, 2018.
It’s just unfortunate that Franklin said what he did when he peered up at the ring of high school prospects who were watching the post-game press conference inside a packed Beaver Stadium media room just minutes after his Nittany Lions lost 27-26 to Ohio State on prime time TV after leading 13-0 with two minutes to go into the first half.
His post-game statement that evening has been an albatross for Franklin in the 50 games and 1,455 days since.
“The reality is, we’ve gone from an average football team, to a good football team, to a great football team,” Franklin famously said that evening.
“But,” Franklin added, “we’re not an elite team yet. The work that it’s going to take to get to an elite program is going to be just as hard as the ground and the distance that we’ve already traveled to get there. We’re going to break through, and be an elite program, by doing all the little things. We’re a great program. We lost to an elite program. And we’re that close.”
(Watch Franklin’s comments in full here. )
Penn State had, indeed, become great. The Nittany Lions were 24-5 in the run-up to that Ohio State game, with back-to-back trips to New Year’s 6 bowls.
But in the 51 games since (counting that OSU contest), Penn State is only 33-18 — and 7-12 vs. ranked teams. Even though Penn State is 6-1, ranked No. 13 this week and played perhaps its finest all-around game in Saturday’s Whiteout against Minnesota, are the 2022 Nittany Lions great — or merely, very good?
WHAT DOES GGE LOOK LIKE?
Good is beating Minnesota minus its six-year veteran starting quarterback, and also defeating unranked Purdue (now 5-3) and Auburn (3-4) on the road.
Great would be taking 2 out of 3 games in the Nittany Lions’ current three-game stretch at Michigan, at home against Minnesota and this Saturday, hosting No. 2 Ohio State. The Nittany Lions got embarrassed 41-17 in The Big House and undefeated Ohio State is 14.5-point favorite. So, great is likely out.
Elite would have been beating all three.
Elite is being ranked 7-0 and ranked second (Ohio State) and fourth (Michigan) in all of college football.
Penn State is No. 13, with 20 schools owning a better record at 7-0 or 8-0. Penn State is 6-1, the same record as Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Illinois, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Oregon, USC, Syracuse, UCLA and Wake Forest. That’s a mixed bag, to be sure.
You have to admire Franklin’s reach back in 2018. Elite seemed possible. A trip to the College Football Playoff was on the horizon for a few years running. Franklin’s shoot-for-the-stars vision at that time was admirably reminiscent of Browning’s famous line, oft-repeated by Franklin’s predecessor, once unceremoniously removed: “Ah, but a man’s reach should exceed his grasp. Or, what’s a heaven for?”
Now though, Penn State’s trek to the elite mountain is muddied and frosty — as in Robert Frost: “The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep. And miles to go before I sleep. And miles to go before I sleep.”
Penn State’s journey is not an easy one. The Big Ten East is home to a pair of elite teams. Currently, only the SEC East – home No. 1 Georgia and No. 3 Tennessee, both undefeated — looks more elite.
THE GGE STANDINGS
What exactly is Penn State up against? Here’s how the Nittany Lions have performed against the Big Ten East’s elite (Ohio State), great (Michigan) and good (Michigan State) teams since that 2018 loss to Ohio State:
| Team | Overall | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018* |
| Ohio State | 47-5 (.904) | 7-0 | 11-2 | 7-1 | 13-1 | 9-1 |
| Michigan | 37-12 (.755) | 7-0 | 12-2 | 2-4 | 9-4 | 7-2 |
| Penn State | 33-18 (.647) | 6-1 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 11-2 | 5-4 |
| Michigan State | 28-22 (.560) | 3-4 | 11-2 | 2-5 | 7-6 | 5-5 |
* Since Sept. 29, 2018
| Penn State/yr. vs. | Ohio State | Michigan | Michigan State |
| 2018 | Loss, 27-26 | Loss, 42-7 | Loss, 21-17 |
| 2019 | Loss, 28-17 | Win, 28-21 | Win, 28-7 |
| 2020 | Loss, 38-25 | Win, 27-17 | Win, 39-24 |
| 2021 | Loss, 33-24 | Loss, 21-17 | Loss, 30-27 |
| 2022 | Oct. 29 | Loss, 41-17 | Nov. 26 |
| 4-9 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
PSU PARITY: THEN AND NOW
Penn State is capable of playing all three Big Ten East schools even. Or even better than that. And we are not talking ancient history, either.
From 2005 to 2011, Penn State was 10-9 against Ohio State (3-4), Michigan (3-3) and Michigan State (4-2). That’s a winning percentage of .526. Not great, but a lot better than the 4-9 (.308) record of 2018 to 2022.
A veteran sportswriter told me Sunday that he thinks Franklin is paid to win three games — “Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State.” A scholar whose thesis was on the history of Penn State athletics texted me that the only football games that matter for “PSU are and should be Michigan and Ohio State.”
I am not saying those two are right. I’m just saying that folks who have followed and studied Penn State for several decades are thinking this way.
So, how does Penn State close the gap against the opponents who matter the most? Here is what Franklin said back in 2018:
“It’s all the details; it’s all the little things,” the Penn State head coach said. “It’s finding a way to overcome adversity consistently. It’s going to class consistently. It’s getting to meetings on time. It’s having your phone turned off in the meetings. It’s not settling for a B in a class when you could have gotten an A. It’s taking notes in every single meeting… Those little things have slipped by? It’s one point last year, it’s one point this year. It’s not happening anymore.”
