Will Idaho have an answer for Penn State on Saturday?
Not likely, given that they are literally not in Penn State’s league (Big Sky/FCS vs. Big Ten/FBS).
Other clues: The Vandals’ home stadium — the vaunted Kibbie Dome — seats just 16,000 fans, and they lost their first and last games of 2018 by a combined 142 to 13.
For Penn State in 2019, there are much bigger, more intriguing, questions (and answers). My Top 19 follow:
1. Who is James Franklin’s Man Crush of 2019?
Jordan Stout, the transfer kicker from Virginia Tech, hands — er, foot — down. Franklin has brought up his name in almost every media avail since summer camp started. And why not? The studly Stout (6-3, 205) has been booming kick-offs out of the end zone when the media is around, so Lord knows what impressive feets — er, feats — he’s doing the rest of the time. Don’t be surprised if Franklin brings in Stout for field goal attempts 45 yards and longer — even in the 50-55 zone.
2. Beyond the graduating seniors, is this a “contract year” for any Nittany Lion?
Yes, two big ones: monster D-end Yetur Gross-Matos and super-quick K.J. Hamler. Both are eligible for the NFL Draft after this season and Gross-Matos — shades of Aaron Maybin and Courtney Brown — is a potential first-rounder. Hamler’s status depends on if Ricky Rahne can get a lot (Rondale) Moore touches out of Hamler. Caution: Maybin and Brown, though first-rounders (Brown was No. 1 overall in 2000), never panned out as pros.
3. What are the two best PSU Portal Prop Bets in 2019?
Who will have more receptions, Oregon’s Juwan Johnson or Hamler? And who will generate more total offense, Tommy Stevens of Mississippi State or Penn State starting QB Sean Clifford?
4. Could the Michigan Whiteout be a noon kick?
Very possibly. Fox gets first pick over ESPN for October 19, when Jim Weirdbaugh and the Wolverines visit Beaver Stadium. In 2019, Fox has targeted the noon window for vulnerability and desirability — little viewing competition for big games vs. prime-time match-ups that must compete against other big games as well as non-sports programming. The top five highest-rated Fox college games in 2018 — including No. 1-rated Ohio State-Michigan — all had a noon kick.
5. Will Franklin finally win a road game against one of Penn State’s non-rival Big Ten East rivals in 2019?
Franklin is 3-12 against Ohio State (0-2 on the road), Michigan State (0-2 on the road) and Michigan (0-3 on the road). This season, the Nittany Lions play at both East Lansing (Oct. 26) and in The Horseshoe (Nov. 23). A win over Sparty is much more likely than in Columbus. So, yes, CJF will up his record to 1-8 on the road against The Big Three.
6. Which month will be the toughest for Penn State?
October, without question. Penn State hosts a much-improved Purdue, is at Iowa (Kinnick is such a great venue), hosts Michigan and then travels to Michigan State. A 2-2 split, after a 4-0 start, would take the Nittany Lions into November with a 6-2 record and the chance for 10 wins. A sole victory in October, and we’re looking at an eight-win season.
7. Any PSU assistant coaches on the hot seat?
Rahne, the Ivy Leaguer whose offense averaged just 24.1 points over its final nine contests in his first season as O-coordinator in 2018, is comfy right now. But another 5-4 finish down the stretch and he is elevated to lukewarm status, with a do-or-Donovan season in 2020.
Watch how the Penn State O-line performs in 2019.
We’ve been hearing for a couple years that this is the breakout year for Matt Line-grower’s squad. Still waiting. Franklin has acknowledged that the staff needs to do some things to put the O-line in a position to succeed. And — hashtag drought — Penn State’s last first-team Big Ten O-lineman came in 2008 (A.Q. Shipley). In Limegrover’s first three years, albeit still post-sanction, the Nittany Lions have not had a first- or second-team Big Ten offensive lineman. Ryan Bates and Connor McGovern both made third team.
8. Exactly who wasn’t named a Penn State co-captain for 2019?
C’mon, that’s not fair. Franklin only named eight of ’em. And for James, that’s nearly status quo. At Vandy, he twice named eight captains, and this is the second time in three seasons at Penn State that he’s selected eight captains. His record when picking eight captains: 29-10 (.743).
(Of course, in another era, former head coach Rip Engle had just 21 captains in his 16 seasons at Penn State (1950-65). Total.)
9. Who picks the captains?
Almost everyone in the program, Franklin said on Wednesday when I asked him. Players, coaches, the support and academics staff, Dwight Galt’s crew. CJF said three players were overwhelming selections, but only mentioned one of the three — Clifford. I’m guessing (strongly) Cam Brown was one of the other ones.
10. Back on May 6, 2014, who did you have as Penn State’s starting quarterback this Saturday?
Brandon Wimbush, who committed to Penn State on that day. Then he decommitted on October 7, 2014. Then he went to Notre Dame. Then he transferred to Central Florida.
11. OK, who did you have as Penn State’s starting quarterback this Saturday back on December 1, 2016?
I’m on to you: Justin Fields, who committed to Penn State on that day. Then he decommitted on June 7, 2017. Then he went to Georgia. Now he’s at Ohio State.
12. A year ago, who did you have as Penn State’s starting quarterback on Saturday?
Easy. Tommy Stevens. (I hope he kills it for JoeMo.)
13. I see where this is heading. How long has Sean Clifford been committed to Penn State?
Since July 13, 2015 — 1,508 days. And counting.
14. Give me three words to describe Penn State’s defense in 2019?
Fast, experienced, deep. OR, Could be great.
15. But will the Nittany Lion D be consistent — which is truly the hallmark of a great defense? Since Joe Paterno was head coach in 1966, which defense has been the best at holding the opposition to the lowest points per game — game after game?
That’s two questions, actually. But I get it: What’s the lowest most points yielded by a Penn State defense in a single game in a season? (A barometer of no blow-outs.)
For context, let’s look at the Franklin Era, for the most points given up in a single game by season: 2014 (34 points), 2015 (55), 2016 (52), 2017 (44) and 2018 (42).
The best, since 1966: 19 points — 1986; 20 points — 1974; 21 points — 1978, 1980, 2004, 2009.
What this shows is that a great defense also needs a good offense (1986, notwithstanding). Tom Bradley was D-coordinator in 2004, when Penn State went 4-7 and never gave up more than 21 points. In 2009, he again led a defense that never gave up more than 21 points, but Penn State had an explosive offense and went 11-2.
16. At which position can Penn State least afford an injury in 2019?
Offensive line (see #7). Will Levis is a stud behind Clifford. He can’t match Clifford’s excellent leadership skills, but he’s got big raw skills.
17. Which week do you think Franklin most wants to go 1-0?
Michigan. Josh Gattis’ departure after the 2016 season, when CJF picked Rahne over Gattis to be O-coordinator and Gattis left — for what Franklin called, without naming names, a lateral move (since Gattis didn’t call plays at ’Bama) — really stuck in James’ craw. Still does, I think…
18. Give me three Penn State players who will have big years in 2019.
Safety Garrett Taylor, linebacker Cam Brown and — ala Kimye, Brangelina, Billary — the one-named receiver named JustDotson (or is it Jashorter)? The combo of Jahan Dotson and Justin Shorter, if both healthy, have great chemistry and a mad collection of skills. Both also have charming personalities that the media will love. Look for Rahne and Franklin to try myriad schemes and quick-hitters to get the ball in their hands. A lot.
19. Will Penn State be good, great or elite in 2019?
Could be good, maybe great. Not elite, not this year.
Let’s see how they handle getting punched in the nose in October (see #6), the fourth quarter (better depth should help) and some adversity. It’s a fairly young, but very talented squad. I believe maturity is its biggest question mark, on and off the field (see: suspensions), followed by the ability to not lose games by coming from ahead.
