Penn State Football: Best Case, Worst Case For All Of Penn State’s Big Ten Games

The warm-ups are now over. Starting this Saturday Penn State enters the Big Ten conference schedule to take on some of the toughest teams in the nation. Sitting at 3-1 the Nittany Lions are in good shape to improve on last season’s 8-4 record. It won’t be easy though and it’ll take a complete team effort to match last year’s success.

So how does Penn State’s Big Ten schedule play out? Lets take a look the best and worst case scenarios for each of the remaining games this season.

@Indiana: (Currently 2-2)

• Best Case: Despite being the 11th best scoring team in the nation, Indiana has sometimes struggled on the defensive side of the ball and shown some occasional inconsistency on offense. Considering that Indiana lost to Missouri, the best team the Hoosiers have played so far, talk of a turnaround season by the Hoosiers may be premature. Put all of these factors together and Penn State pulls out the win having had an extra week to get ready for the game. Penn State runs the ball in dominating fashion and Christian Hackenberg has a strong Big Ten debut.

• Worst Case: Penn State’s pass defense looked a little shaky against Blake Bortles of UCF and Indiana’s 348 yards per game through the air holds true for another week. Even though Indiana has a bit of a controversy at quarterback, the passing attack is too much for a Ryan Keiser-less Penn State secondary. Hackenberg struggles early and can’t dig Penn State out of a first quarter hole. Deion Barnes goes missing and Penn State struggles to pressure the quarterback.

• Player to Watch: Quarterback Nate Sudfeld, 1146 yards, 11 touchdowns, 5 interceptions.

Michigan: (Currently 4-0)

• Best Case: A Homecoming meeting that could be one to remember. On paper Michigan is the better team but the No. 19 Wolverines haven’t really won a game with ease since the season opener against Central Michigan. A solid 41-30 victory over Notre Dame has been long forgotten thanks to close 28-24 and 24-21 wins over Akron and UConn. A sellout crowd in Beaver Stadium can make this a tough night for a very hit-or-miss Michigan team. If Penn State can rattle the Wolverines early and get on the board first, an upset isn’t out of the question. Devin Gardner has been average at quarterback — usually more threatening when he tucks it and runs. Contain him and you have a chance to win. It’s all easier said than done, but as Akron and UConn showed already, hanging with the Wolverines isn’t impossible. Penn State repeats what Akron and UConn did with balanced offensive attack but finishes the job, pulling off the upset. The legend of Christian Hackenberg grows.

• Worst Case: Even when they’re playing poorly the Wolverines are capable of pulling it together in a hurry. If Penn State gets ahead in the first half it might just light a fire under a Michigan team that could very well be ranked in the Top 15 come Oct. 12. Given some tackling woes on Penn State’s defense, Gardner is able to use his feet and bust off several large gains. Hackenberg is decent on the night but is still adjusting to Big Ten defenses and can’t quite pull off a comeback. At worst Penn State falls to .500 having struggled to slow down Indiana’s pass attack the week before. Even with a pending bye week, Ohio State looming on the other side leaves little room for rest for the struggling Nittany Lions.

• Player to Watch: Quarterback Devin Gardner, 801 yards, 7 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 301 yard rushing.

@Ohio State: (Currently 5-0)

• Best Case: Despite all of the offensive weapons Ohio State has, the Buckeyes aren’t quite as good on defense. There are stars like cornerback Bradley Roby on the Ohio State defense, but Wisconsin showed that Ohio State’s defense is far from an unbreakable wall. Penn State takes advantage of the slight Buckeye weakness and gets aggressive early with nothing to lose playing the No. 4 team in the nation on the road. Penn State also catches Braxton Miller on an off night and is able to contain the Buckeye’s deep passing attack. Sam Ficken is key in a low scoring game and Penn State is able to pull off the shocker. The bye week is key to preparing for this game.

• Worst Case: Playing on the road is hard. Playing in Columbus is even harder. Penn State struggles to convert third downs and Ohio State exploits a young and mistake prone Penn State secondary. Braxton Miller is making a late Heisman push and this night helps his cause. Ohio State will play four of the last five games of the season on the road, so winning against Penn State starts the trip off on the right foot. O’Brien has his troops ready for battle, but the Buckeyes are ranked No. 4 in the nation for a reason.

• Player to Watch: Bradley Roby, cornerback who will likely have the role of covering Penn State receiver Allen Robinson

Illinois: (Currently 3-1)

• Best Case: Illinois is a better team than it was in 2012 but heads to Penn State after a three game stretch against Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. It seems unlikely that the Illini would be undefeated in Big Ten play by the time they travel to Happy Valley giving O’Brien plenty of valuable tape to watch. Add in the fact that Penn State fans are still a little annoyed about Illinois trying to recruit away Nittany Lion players and the crowd might be a little extra juiced for this one. Hackenberg has learned from the trip to Ohio State and fires off his best day in Big Ten play. Nathan Scheelhaase struggles in the pocket and Penn State’s defense is rounding into form. 

• Worst Case: Penn State has beaten Ohio State and Illinois becomes a trap game. If the long-shot upset hasn’t happened then Scheelhaase continues his strong season and attacks a Penn State defense that is still struggling after getting knocked around by Ohio State. Hackenberg still struggles with Big Ten defenses and can’t get going which puts Penn State behind early in the game. Couple that with a possible noon kick and its a flat performance by all on hand.

• Player to Watch: Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, 1162 yards, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions.

@Minnesota: (Currently 4-1)

• Best Case: After a hot start the Gophers are still sitting on five wins and can’t get the ground game going yet again. Hackenberg has shown a great amount of growth even after a loss to Ohio State and silences the road crowd early. The loss puts Minnesota in a tough spot looking to make one final push towards a bowl game and a loss to Penn State doesn’t help that cause. Akeel Lynch turns on the jets for a 200-yard day and is showing signs of being the running back of the future.

• Worst Case: Minnesota’s 4-1 start was no mistake and a win over Indiana the week before gets the Gophers’ bowl eligible earlier than usual. The Gophers average 231 yards a game on the ground and that attack continues to chip away at Penn State’s defense. Penn State still isn’t scoring in bunches and a stout Minnesota defense doesn’t give up more than 24 for at least the fifth time all year.

• Player to Watch: Running back David Cobb, 61 carries, 352 yards, 5 touchdowns

Purdue: (Currently 1-4)

• Best Case: Purdue isn’t very good, having beaten Indiana State by only six points. The Boilermakers lost a close game to Notre Dame but a rivalry meeting can bring out the best in a team. Purdue averages only 17 points a game, and playing on the road doesn’t help matters any. Penn State has beaten everyone but Ohio State and is looking to match last season’s win total two weeks early. The Nittany Lions are strong out of the gate and Purdue never sniffs a real shot at winning. Hackenberg is strong and the three-headed tandem of Belton, Lynch and Zwinak are able to run all over the Purdue defense.

• Worst Case: Penn State has no identity and Hackenberg is showing signs of never really turning the corner. A few defensive plays by Purdue lead to short fields and Penn State can’t get it going in response to the early scores. Every season has a trap game and this one is Penn State’s. Rob Henry has his best day at quarterback for Purdue and the Boilermakers pick up only their second win of the year.

• Player to Watch: Quarterback Rob Henry, 832 yards, 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions.

Nebraska: (Currently 3-1)

• Best Case: There is no doubt about where the endzone line is this time and Penn State exorcises some demons pulling off an impressive win at home. The Cornhuskers were strong out of conference but the defense struggles in Big Ten play giving Penn State a chance at a shootout victory. The Nittany Lion defense makes enough plays to squeak out a victory in a game that sees both head coaches explode on the sideline. It’s senior night and DaQuan Jones is a monster on the defensive line for his final home game in Beaver Stadium

• Worst Case: Nebraska can put up points and Penn State can’t match the pace. The Nittany Lion defense is better but hasn’t been able to really stop teams when it is needed the most. The Cornhuskers have slowly climbed up the ranks and a favorable final few games makes winning in Happy Valley even more important. Wins, losses, and injuries have all piled up and despite the good NCAA news weeks earlier, Penn State is a battered team. Hackenberg gets the team close but time runs out on the comeback with a late Nebraska touchdown.

• Player to Watch: Quarterback Taylor Martinez, 528 yards, 9 touchdowns, 1 interception.

@Wisconsin: (Currently 3-2)

• Best Case: Minnesota knocks off the high-flying Badgers the week before and Wisconsin comes into the final regular season game of the year lacking direction. Penn State is able to slow down a talented rushing attack led by Melvin Gordon and makes a few key interceptions. Hackenberg is turning out to be the real deal and takes advantage of a Wisconsin defense capable of giving up a big play. Penn State may not be bowl eligible, but wins over Wisconsin to end two straight seasons is plenty to enjoy at the end of the year.

• Worst Case: Aside from losing to Ohio State, Wisconsin is looking to make a case for a BCS bowl after handling everyone else in the conference. Gordon runs all over Penn State like he has done to many other teams all season and quarterback Joel Stave has another great game under center. It’s a night contest in Madison and Penn State can never get the passing game going while Wisconsin fans are “Jumping Around”. An injury on the offensive line earlier in the season lets Wisconsin pressure Hackenberg into a few mistakes he hasn’t made since the start of the season. Penn State ends the year on a loss, but an improved 9-3.

• Player to Watch: Melvin Gordon, 68 carries, 572 yards, 4 touchdowns.