As Penn State trudges into the back half of the schedule the often criticized receiving corps, continues to be the focus of many fans’ ire.
But how bad, or how good, has it been so far this season?
As it stands today Penn State ranks 59th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 239 yards per game. For comparison over the past several seasons Penn State has finished 23rd, 36th, 74th and 62nd while under James Franklin and a duo of offensive coordinators. So in reality Penn State’s pass attack has been about what you could expect from at least the first half of Franklin’s tenure and ‘just’ 51 yards a game from last year’s total.
Of course the issue is less about the yards than it is the efficiency of when the ball is thrown. For example Purdue is 6th nationally in passing yards per game but 4-3 on the season. It’s only part of the equation. Drops in particular have plagued Penn State on otherwise promising drives, killing momentum along the way.
‘I think obviously, yeah, I think we can be more consistent,’ James Franklin said after practice a few weeks ago. ‘I don’t think there is any doubt about it. The receivers individually would say that. I think David Corley would say that as well. So that’s what we’re working towards. Everybody owns it. It’s not any one person, everyone owns it including myself. I know it’s not for a lack of effort. We need to be more consistently focused. We need to make sure our techniques and fundamentals are so second nature that we don’t even need to think about it.’
The question now though when it comes to greater context is how this compares to other Penn State seasons’ and where the Nittany Lions might end up when the year is all said and done.
Unsurprisingly, it’s not good, but it shows promise.
| Year | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
| Attempts | 212 | 458 | 391 | 404 | 497 | 409 | 456 | 376 | 425 | 397 |
| Catches | 117 | 301 | 226 | 215 | 276 | 251 | 272 | 181 | 236 | 241 |
| Yards | 1679 | 3772 | 3650 | 2788 | 3034 | 3110 | 3283 | 2301 | 2986 | 3083 |
| Comp % | 55% | 66% | 58% | 53% | 56% | 61% | 60% | 48% | 55% | 61% |
As you can see on the chart above, Penn State’s 55% completion rate is among the worst of the past 10 seasons, albeit in some cases by only a few percentage points. For a better idea of how the season might pan out, the projected totals can be seen below under the assumption Penn State hits its averages for the next five regular season games and attends a bowl. It isn’t an exact science, but it’s not an entirely unfair number set to work with seven games into the season.
The rankings are relative to the previous nine seasons, 2018 being the 10th.
- Yards, attempts, receptions and completion percentage.
| Yards/game | 239 |
| Attempts/game | 30 |
| Receptions/game | 16 |
| 3113 projected | 4th |
| 392 projected | 8th |
| 213 projected | 9th |
| 54% projected |
8th
|
There are a handful of things that come to mind. For one, this span of 10 seasons showcases at least three different types of offenses with different approaches to the passing game in the first place. A Joe Paterno or Bill O’Brien team was probably not going to reach nearly 4,000 yards passing in a season. A Joe Moorhead offense toyed with the idea both years he was at the helm.
Similarly, the yardage relative to the completions is telling. Unsurprisingly when Penn State players are catching the ball, they are making plays. 3113 yards would be the fewest since 2015 but hardly a pedestrian level of production. Additionally while Penn State is projected to have almost the fewest receptions of the past 10 years, that’s largely a product of the 8th fewest attempts in the first place.
The issue, it’s the completion percentage. It’s one thing to not pass a lot, it’s another to get minimal production in those moments when the Nittany Lions do in fact pass. Even in spite fo this the Nittany Lions are on track for 26 passing touchdowns, which would be third best in the past 10 years.
So moral of the story is something you already know.
Just catch it.
