At 2:15 eastern standard time, Penn State coach Bill O’Brien will address the media assembled in Chicago as part of a 48-hour marathon that is Big Ten media days. During his 15 minutes in front of the lights O’Brien will answer some of the same question he has answered over the past several months.
“Talk about the quarterbacks”
“How is this team going to respond after losing so many senior leaders?”
“Are you going to appeal for lesser sanctions?”
“Can you repeat last season’s performance?”
“Is anyone else going to transfer before training camp starts?”
The list will go on and on. If O’Brien is lucky he won’t have to answer a question that he hasn’t had to answer before. As good as he has gotten behind the microphone, he will use the 15 minutes as essentially a scripted national recruiting pitch. For the most part O’Brien will be on autopilot, something he is excellent at in these situations, counting down the time until his 15 minutes are up and he is 15 minutes closer to just getting to coach.
Less than 24 hours earlier a fake Twitter account self named “Evil Bill O’Brien”, a sarcastic fan created depiction of O’Brien, spent the evening digging up old tweets from sports writers who said the Nittany Lion football program was headed towards collapse. The account and its thousands of followers laughed at dramatic remarks saying Penn State would win seven games over the next four years, or that the death penalty was better than the sanctions.
Exactly a year removed from the announcement of unprecedented sanctions it was a chance for fans to remind everyone that reports of the program’s demise were greatly exaggerated. For a team that went 8-4 last season and is set to haul in another talent filled recruiting class in 2014 there is plenty of reason for fans to feel vindicated. O’Brien deserves the recognition he has received and the Nittany Lions have earned the respect of sports fans nationwide.
But exactly a year and one day following the announcement of NCAA sanctions, O’Brien just might repeat a message Wednesday afternoon that he has been quietly telling those who are paying close attention.
“It isn’t going to be easy moving forward.”
He doesn’t come right out and say it, but from his Coaches Caravan Tour to media interviews about the sanctions, O’Brien has always been one to err on the side of caution when it comes to Penn State’s future. Some of it is coach speak, but some of it is common sense and an understanding that the football program is walking the knife’s edge between success and a slow downward spiral.
For Penn State probably more than any other program, winning is key. As long as the Nittany Lions are winning recruits will make their way to Happy Valley for a chance to play for O’Brien and his staff. Bowl games are quickly becoming part of future recruit’s time at Penn State and those with a vision of the long haul are fine with living through a few years of bowl ineligibility.
But if the Nittany Lions struggle, the problems begin to grow.
Just last week O’Brien announced that defensive end Brad Bars would miss the season with a torn ACL. As a result Penn State will have to likely plug the hole at the No. 2 spot on the depth chart with an unproven freshman or underclassmen. Much like the rest of the roster, the Nittany Lions are more than talented on the top level, but the deeper you dig the less that becomes true.
While any team in the country is less talented as you look into the depth chart, a 65 scholarship limit prevents Penn State from building up a stockpile of top Division I talent. As injuries inevitably pile up, more and more players will have to step into a role that they may not be quite ready for. O’Brien has put together one of the best coaching staffs in the country but they can only do so much. If losing hurts recruiting, it hurts the team’s depth, and as depth is affected it feeds back into the ability to win.
This isn’t to say Penn State fans have no reason to hold their heads up and look forward to the 2013 season. O’Brien has done an exceptional job bringing in as much talent as he can for the upcoming year and has proven to be more than capable on the sideline. If the 2013 season can get off on the right foot and the current 2014 verbal commitments sign on the dotted line it will go a long way towards staying just above water through the next few years.
But ultimately the real NCAA sanctions have only just begun and O’Brien is more than aware of this. While Penn State fans have earned the right to stick their noses up at people who said the program would fall apart, it might not be time to throw caution to the wind just yet.
