Fans may be concentrating on Penn State’s soon-to-be-finalized recruiting class.
But what will more directly impact the Nittany Lions’ on-the-field success in 2015 is its strength of schedule outside its division. Or lack thereof.
It’s true that Penn State now plays in what has the potential to become one of college football’s toughest divisions – with Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana.
But when the Nittany Lions play outside the East Division of the Big Ten Conference in 2015, the sledding looks to be anything but rough.
As a result, gaining the requisite six wins to earn a bowl bid could be easier for Penn State in 2015.
Only San Diego State, at 7-6, had a 2014 winning record among Penn State’s four non-conference opponents. Overall, that group also includes Temple (6-6), Buffalo (5-6) and Army (4-8) – with an aggregate record of 22-26.
Throw in the Nittany Lions’ two crossover contests against West Division foes Illinois (6-7) and Northwestern (5-7), and Penn State’s non-division foes in the fall have a decidedly underwhelming 33-40 record. That’s an opponents’ winning percentage of .452. That mark is third-lowest among the 14 teams in the Big Ten. (Indiana at .419 is No. 1, followed by Michigan at .430.)
Overall, Penn State’s non-conference schedule in 2014 ranks sixth-easiest in the Big Ten, while the combined 11-14 record of its two West Division opponents (Illinois, Northwestern) is the second-easiest in the East Division.
It’s not like the Nittany Lions’ six-pack of sub-par foes finished 2014 on any kind of momentum-building tear, on the short or long-term, either. The only two teams that went to bowl games in 2014 – San Diego State and Illinois – both lost. As a group, the six opponents limped to the finish line, winning only a combined 13 of their final 40 games in the 2014 schedule. (One of those victories was that Nov. 22 thriller in Champaign, where Illinois beat Penn State, 16-14.)
The past three seasons have been kind only to San Diego State, which has had three straight winning records. Otherwise, during that time Penn State’s other five non-division foes have shared exactly two winning seasons out of a possible 15 – Buffalo in 2013 and Northwestern in 2012.
Of those six opponents in 2015, only Northwestern will be a true road contest, as the Nittany Lions travel to Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill., for a Nov. 7 game with Northwestern. The Temple contest, which opens Penn State’s season on Sept. 5, will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, where Penn State fans will dominate the stadium. The other four games are all in Beaver Stadium.
CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS
Here’s a look at the non-conference and out-of-division slates and opponents’ 2014 records for all 14 Big Ten teams, beginning with a few highlights:
— Rutgers has the easiest non-conference schedule, with its four foes owning a 14-34 (.292) record.
— Conversely, among East Division teams Rutgers has the toughest pair of West Division opponents, both with new head coaches — Wisconsin (11-3 last season) on the road and Nebraska (9-4) at home.
— Minnesota has the toughest combined non-division schedule. It hosts TCU (12-1), then travels to Colorado State (10-3). Its East Division match-ups in 2014 are against Michigan and at Ohio State.
— Not that Purdue, only 3-9 in 2014, needs a bigger challenge, but it has the toughest non-conference schedule of all Big Ten teams. All four of the Boilermakers’ non-con opponents won postseason games in 2014, including Marshall (13-1). A slate like could cost you a trip to the College Football Playoffs – or your job.
EAST DIVISION
INDIANA — Non-conference: host Southern Illinois (6-6), host Florida International (4-8), host Western Kentucky (8-5, W-Bahamas), at Wake Forest (3-9) – 21-28 (.429 winning percentage). Big Ten West Division foes: host Iowa (7-6, L-Taxslayer), at Purdue (3-9) – 10-15 (.400). Combined out of division: 31-43 (.419).
MARYLAND — Non-conference: host Richmond (9-5, W & L, FCS Playoffs), host Bowling Green (8-6, W-Camellia), host South Florida (4-8), at West Virginia (7-6, L-Liberty) – 28-25 (.528). Big Ten West Division foes: at Iowa (7-6, L-Taxslayer), host Wisconsin (11-3, W-Outback) – 18-9 (.667). Combined out of division: 46-34 (.575).
MICHIGAN — Non-conference: at Utah (9-4, W-Las Vegas), host Oregon State (5-7), host Nevada-Las Vegas (2-11), host Brigham Young (8-5, L-Miami Beach) – 24-27 (.471). Big Ten West Division foes: host Northwestern (5-7), at Minnesota (8-5, L-Citrus) – 13-12 (.520). Combined out of division: 37-49 (.430).
MICHIGAN STATE — Non-conference: at Western Michigan (8-5, L-Idaho Potato), host Oregon (13-2, W-Rose, L-CFP title), host Air Force (10-3, W-Idaho Potato), host Central Michigan (7-6, L-Bahamas – 38-16 (.704). Big Ten West Division foes: host Purdue (3-9), at Nebraska (9-4, L-Holiday) – 12-13 (.480). Combined out of division: 50-29 (.633).
OHIO STATE — Non-conference: at Virginia Tech (7-6, W-Military), host Hawaii (4-9), host Northern Illinois (11-3, L-Boca Raton), host Western Michigan (8-5, L-Idaho Potato) – 30-23 (.566). Big Ten West Division foes: host Minnesota (8-5, L-Citrus), at Illinois (6-7, L-Heart of Dallas) – 14-12 (.538). Combined out of division: 44-35 (.557).
PENN STATE — Non-conference: at Temple (6-6), host Buffalo (5-6), host San Diego State (7-6, L-Poinsettia), host Army (4-8) – 22-26 (.458). Big Ten West Division foes: host Illinois (6-7, L-Heart of Dallas), at Northwestern (5-7) – 11-14 (.440). Combined out of division: 33-40 (.452).
RUTGERS — Non-conference: host Norfolk State (4-8), host Washington State (3-9), host Kansas (3-9), host Army (4-8) –14-34 (.292). Big Ten West Division foes: at Wisconsin (11-3, W-Outback), host Nebraska (9-4, L-Holiday) – 20-7 (.741). Combined out of division: 34-41 (.453).
WEST DIVISION
ILLINOIS — Non-conference: host Kent State (2-9), host Western Illinois (5-7), at North Carolina (6-7, L-Quick Lane), host Middle Tennessee (6-6) – 19-29 (.396). Big Ten East Division foes: at Penn State (7-6, W-Pinstripe), at Ohio State (14-1, W-Sugar, W-CFP title) – 21-7 (.750). Combined out of division: 40-36 (.526).
IOWA — Non-conference: host Illinois State (13-2, 3W & 1L, FCS Playoffs), at Iowa State (2-10), host Pitt (6-7, L-Armed Forces), host North Texas (4-8) – 25-27 (.481). Big Ten East Division foes: host Maryland (7-6, L-Foster Farms), at Indiana (4-8) – 11-14 (.440). Combined out of division: 36-41 (.467).
MINNESOTA — Non-conference: host TCU (12-1, W-Peach), at Colorado State (10-3, L-Las Vegas), host Kent State (2-9), host Ohio (6-6) – 30-19 (.612). Big Ten East Division foes: host Michigan (5-7), at Ohio State (14-1, W-Sugar, CFP title) – 19-8 (.704). Combined out of division: 49-27 (.645).
NEBRASKA — Non-conference: host Brigham Young (8-5, L-Miami Beach), host South Alabama (6-7, L-Camellia), at Miami (Fla.) (6-7, L-Independence), host Southern Miss (3-9) – 23-28 (.451). Big Ten East Division foes: at Michigan State (11-2, W-Cotton), at Rutgers (8-5, W-Quick Lane) – 19-7 (.731). Combined out of division: 42-35 (.545).
NORTHWESTERN — Non-conference: host Stanford (8-5, W-Foster Farms), host Eastern Illinois (5-7), at Duke (9-4, L-Sun), host Ball State (5-7) – 27-23 (.540). Big Ten East Division foes: at Michigan (5-7), host Penn State (7-6, W-Pinstripe) – 12-13 (.480. Combined out of division: 39-36 (.520).
PURDUE — Non-conference: at Marshall (13-1, W-Boca Raton), host Indiana State (8-6, 1W 1L, FCS Playoffs), host Virginia Tech (7-6, W-Military), host Bowling Green (8-6, W-Camellia) – 36-19 (.654). Big Ten East Division foes: at Michigan State (11-2, W-Cotton), host Indiana (4-8) – 15-10 (.600). Combined out of division: 51-29 (.636).
WISCONSIN — Non-conference: Alabama in Arlington, Texas (12-2, L-Sugar Bowl), host Miami (Ohio) (2-10), host Troy (3-9), host Hawaii (4-9) – 21-30 (.412). Big Ten East Division foes: host Rutgers (8-5, W-Quick Lane), at Maryland (7-6, L-Foster Farms) – 15-11 (.577). Combined out of division: 36-41 (.468).
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