I am by nature an optimistic person. Over the course of my investment career, things on Wall Street and in the economy have gotten significantly better for nearly everyone. Growth and prosperity comes in fits and spurts and is not evenly spread across the populace. Yet eventually the progress made through technology seeps into every corner of humanity.
All this growth and prosperity is reflected in the stock prices on Wall Street sooner or later and is impacted by many other elements of our society: monetary policy (the current focus of investment managers), fiscal policies, technology development and adoption in the world — all within the backdrop of the rule of law, contracts, and the sanctity of human and property rights.
There are many side tracks in our society including the welfare of those unable to participate in our form of capitalism, terrorist efforts to disrupt the peaceful pursuits of others and actions of various bully and criminal governments trying to impose their will on others by military force. I am hopeful that folks will realize that progress occurs when the people can pursue their own dreams and desires from the bottom up, not the top down. Ruling elites employing top down policies, rules and regulations only slow progress and eventually get voted out of office.
With that as a backdrop, I am enthusiastic about the potential for our economy over the next 50 years. Our children, grandchildren and, yes, even our great grandchildren have the potential to live life longer and better than any preceding generation. And our current stock market will continue to advance, with likely interruptions, to heights only dreamed of by today’s pundits. Why do I say this? Let me enumerate some but certainly not all the possibilities:
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We are only beginning to utilize the potential of the internet, both wired and wireless, for helping with everyday tasks, quickly and easily. Think of Lyft and Uber making personal transportation faster, easier and more inexpensive for many. The entertainment value of the internet is widely recognized, as I listen to Pandora streaming the hits of the ‘70s while writing this piece.
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Three dimensional (3D) manufacturing is at the early stages of transforming how we make things. In one example, the expensive part of a rocket, the nozzles, have come down 80 percent in cost while the time needed to make them has declined sharply. This has led in part to the success of Elon Musk’s Space X and Jeff Bezos’s (of Amazon) efforts to ferry supplies into space and reuse the boosters after landing them back on earth. Space travel is getting cheaper and easier and more usual.
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Biotechnology is moving rapidly into actual cures for human afflictions of all kinds, even if they are initially expensive by historical standards. Yet as the technologies become more widely understood, costs and prices will begin to drop and what was once a death sentence becomes just a glitch in everyday life. For example, hepatitis C is now curable. The application of medicine defined by using identification of the human genome is becoming standard stuff. New diseases — such as Zika virus — can be dealt with more effectively as we chart their genomes and understand how they impact the human condition.
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Energy has transformed in recent years from shortages and high prices to abundance and universal availability. The recent triple digit prices for oil have retreated and the price of natural gas has declined to levels not seen since the mid-1970s. My recent royalty check was recorded at just one dollar per thousand cubic feet of natural gas. (Of course, I would be more pleased if the price were somewhat higher.)
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We are on the cusp of making auto travel significantly safer as electronics enable self-driving cars and trucks to be made better. Setbacks will be inevitable as we learn how to do things, but the ultimate result will save thousands of lives across the country as we (figuratively) get ourselves out of the driver’s seat, save for unusual circumstances.
So while the news concentrates on the presidential election, terrorist strikes across the world, racial problems and other issues where resolution is frustratingly elusive, take comfort that significant progress continues on many fronts that will make life better, longer and more fulfilling for almost everyone. It is a great time to be alive, watch this unfold and participate in the world of expanding possibilities.
