Penn State at Michigan Game Preview and Score Prediction

Riding a three-game losing skid, Penn State is desperately hoping to turn its season around with a trip to face Michigan in The Big House on Saturday.

The Wolverines find themselves in an eerily similar situation, also searching for their first Big Ten win of the season following an underwhelming start, though they have beaten a power conference team in Oklahoma.

Here’s everything to know heading into the matchup.

Details and Odds

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026

Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT

Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

TV: CBS

Michigan Record: 3-2

Spread: Michigan -6.5

Series History

The Wolverines lead the all-time series 17-10, emerging victorious in seven of the last 10 meetings. Michigan has also won nine of the previous 11 meetings in Michigan Stadium.

Overview and Storylines

Both teams are breaking in new head coaches who previously had long-time stints at Big 12 schools. Matt Campbell and Kyle Whittingham have one previous meeting, when Iowa State emerged victorious by a 31-28 score over Utah in 2024.

This year, the Wolverines have dropped a pair of Big Ten contests, 20-19 vs. Iowa and 20-14 at Minnesota, plus a narrow, controversial victory over Western Michigan during nonconference play.

Matchup and Scheme Breakdown

Michigan is a talented squad, with more blue-chip players on the roster than Penn State, but it hasn’t played anywhere near its potential through the first five games. Perhaps a bye week gave the team a chance to regroup.

The defense has generally upheld the standard in Ann Arbor, holding opponents to just 241.4 yards per game, which ranks third nationally. Penn State’s defense has also been its stronger unit, setting up a potential slug-fest on Saturday.

Both squads are particularly strong against the pass, ranking top three among power conference teams in passing yards allowed, with vulnerabilities against the run. However, neither team has been able to run the ball effectively, another factor that may lead to a low-scoring affair.

The Wolverines are stout up front and have multiple talented cornerbacks, leaving linebackers as the least proven position group defensively. Expect the Nittany Lions to make tight ends a focal point in this matchup as a result.

Offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who followed Whittingham from Utah, also likes to add a sixth offensive lineman in the “rhino” package, but even then they’ve struggled to move the ball on the ground, which is puzzling considering their returning starters on the offensive line and talent at running back. Arguably their best runner has been quarterback Bryce Underwood, yet another mobile play-caller for the Nittany Lions to deal with.

Players to Watch

Sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood (19), a former five-star recruit, has struggled this season, completing 67 of 113 passes (59%) for 881 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s a capable runner, though, with 57 carries for 212 yards and two scores this season. He has the arm talent to make the occasional elite throw, but hasn’t done so consistently throughout his career.

Wide receiver JJ Buchanon (6), who was responsible for the game-winning Hail Mary against Western Michigan, has been the Wolverines biggest weapon offensively. His size provides an advantage in contested catches and in the red zone, and he’s often been used as Underwood’s security blanket. Buchanan has 24 receptions for a team-high 446 yards with four of the team’s six receiving touchdowns.

Also worth monitoring is wide receiver Andrew Marsh (3), a talented sophomore with 25 receptions for 268 yards and a score this season. He led Michigan with 651 receiving yards and four touchdowns as a true freshman in 2025.

Defensive ends John Henry Daley (90) and Dom Nichols (8) are major threats off the edge, combining for 5.5 of the Wolverines’ 12 sacks this season. Daley transferred in from Utah, where he was named an All-American a season ago, while Nichols is having a breakout during his third season in Ann Arbor.

Behind them, cornerback Jyaire Hill (0) is a name to know, accounting for 25 total tackles with an interception this fall. He was pegged as a first-team All-Big Ten player by Athlon in the preseason and has allowed just seven receptions on 11 targets for 69 yards and one touchdown, per PFF.

Keys to Victory

Penn State: The Nittany Lions need to find ways to generate pressure on Underwood, who has struggled when out of rhythm or in obvious passing situations. Keeping him guessing with disguised coverages will also be critical for opportunities at interceptions.

Michigan: The Wolverines can gain an advantage by establishing a ground game against a susceptible Penn State defensive front. Though they haven’t run the ball effectively this season, this game serves as an opportunity for their talented backs to finally kick into gear.

Score Prediction

Michigan 21, Penn State 13

This will be a battle between two of the conference’s top defenses, which have been particularly effective against the pass. The Wolverines haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season, and the Nittany Lion offense has stumbled since the start of Big Ten play.

Michigan’s offense has also struggled, particularly running the ball, but the team does have playmakers at wide receiver and Underwood is typically good for a few dazzling moments per game.

Turnovers will also prove critical in what’s likely going to be a low-scoring affair, especially ones that set up good field position.