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Penn State vs. Villanova Game Preview and Score Prediction

Penn State head coach James Franklin greets Villanova head coach Mark Ferrante following a game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

Joel Haas

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Penn State is looking to close out its nonconference slate strong with a matchup against FCS Villanova, the first meeting between the two since 2021.

Each squad is looking to remain undefeated when they meet on the gridiron at 3:30 p.m. Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The game will be broadcast on FS1.

Here’s what to know about the Wildcats ahead of their visit to Happy Valley this weekend for an in-state clash.

Head coach:

Villanova is led by Mark Ferrante, who’s entering his ninth season in the role. He worked his way from an outside linebackers coach to an offensive line coach to an assistant head coach before taking over as the top dog in 2017.

Prior to joining the program, Ferrante had stints as a running backs coach at Division III St. Lawrence, where he played quarterback, Wagner and FCS Lafayette.

He’s led the Wildcats to four consecutive winning seasons, including two Colonial Athletic Association championships, and has been to the playoffs four times.

Coordinators:

Chris Boden is in his seventh season as the team’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, and he’s consistently produced strong offenses relative to the competition level. He’s a former Villanova quarterback who holds the program record for career passing yards, which he set from 1997-99. Under Boden, the Wildcats have typically produced run-heavy offenses, utilizing multiple backs.

Villanova’s defense is headed by Ross Pennypacker, who’s in his ninth consecutive season with the program and 11th overall. He was the program’s video coordinator in 2006-2007 and returned when Ferrante took over in 2017. The Wildcats operate out of a three stack (3-3-5) defense, which can pose challenges to Penn State’s offensive line if it’s unable to effectively communicate to pick up blocks.

“They’ve been running this system for a while and have had success with it, so they’ve stayed with it and promoted from within,” Penn State head coach James Franklin said Wednesday. “But it definitely causes some challenges. It caused us some challenges last time we played.”

Standout players:

During his Monday press conference, Franklin listed quarterback Pat McQuaide, running back David Avit, offensive lineman Stephane Voltaire, linebacker Shane Hartzell, defensive lineman Obinna Nwobodo, defensive tackle Zahmir Dawud, punter Luke Larsen and kicker Jack Barnum as players he’s been impressed by.

McQuaide, who started for two years at Nicholls, transferred to Villanova this offseason and won the starting job. In his only game this season, he went 18-for-28 for 299 yards and a touchdown. He graded out as the team’s top offensive player in that game, per PFF.

Avit, who also graded as one of the top Wildcats, was named to the preseason watch list for the Walter Payton Award, presented annually to the top FCS player. Last season, he was named the CAA Offensive Rookie of the Year after rushing for 923 yards on 173 carries with nine touchdowns. He also consistently grades well in pass protection.

Hartzell was named to the first-team All-CAA defense last season and was included on the preseason all-conference team for this season as well. Entering his fifth season, Hartzell is an experienced and talented leader for the defense.

Voltaire, Nwobodo and Dawud also earned preseason All-CAA recognition entering the season.

Record:

The Wildcats began the season with an unusually timed bye week before facing Colgate last Saturday in their season opener. Villanova came away with a 24-17 win over the Raiders. Last season, the Wildcats finished 10-4, including a 38-20 loss to their only power conference opponent, Maryland.

Series history:

Saturday’s game marks the 11th all-time meeting in the series, which hasn’t been as lopsided as some might expect. Penn State holds a 6-3-1 all-time edge, including a 38-17 win in 2021. Prior to that game, they hadn’t met on the gridiron since 1951, when the Wildcats won for the third consecutive time after Penn State won five of the first six meetings.

Prediction: Penn State 55, Villanova 10

Penn State is a 48.5-point favorite according to FanDuel, a line that feels accurate. While the Nittany Lions are the far superior team on paper, they could run into some issues running the ball against a three stack defense that specializes in causing confusion.

Given Penn State’s offensive line struggles, specifically on inside zone runs, this could lead to another underwhelming rushing performance, particularly between the tackles. Still, the Nittany Lions should be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Wildcat secondary, creating explosive plays through the passing game.

Once again, the defense should be stout and outmatch Villanova, especially in the passing game. On the ground, the Wildcats may be able to find some momentum, but it likely won’t be enough to keep the game competitive.