Penn State vs. Wisconsin Preview and Score Prediction

Big Ten play begins on Saturday for both Penn State and Wisconsin, who will do battle in front of a dual Homecoming/helmet stripe crowd at Beaver Stadium.

The Nittany Lions are hoping to remain undefeated, while the Badgers enter with one prior loss, a 41-13 clobbering against Notre Dame in Week 1.

Here’s everything to know about the matchup heading into Saturday.

Details and Odds

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026

Time: 5 p.m. EDT

Location: Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)

TV: Peacock / NBC Sports Network

Wisconsin Record: 2-1

Spread: Penn State -10.5

Series History

Penn State holds a 12-9 edge in the all-time series, including six consecutive victories between 2012-24. The Badgers won the two initial matchups in 1953 and 1970, and they went back and forth for a stretch after the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten.

Overview and Storylines

The Nittany Lions will be without a key player during their first real challenge of the season after it was announced wide receiver Koby Howard is out for an extended period of time. He leads the team in receptions and yards by a sizable margin through three games. Tight end Andrew Rappleyea and center Brock Riker also remain questionable to play, potentially causing even more depth concerns offensively.

Meanwhile, the Badgers remain fairly healthy and are expected to get back running back Abu Sama III, who spent the previous three seasons at Iowa State. The Penn State staff and many defensive starters are well aware of his capabilities heading into Saturday.

Matchup and Scheme Breakdown

Wisconsin’s offense ranked dead last among the Power 4 in passing yards and points per game last season, including an average of just nine points per game against conference competition. Hoping to reverse course, the Badgers brought in Old Dominion transfer quarterback Colton Joseph and several other offensive pieces this offseason.

The offense is built around Joseph’s legs, as he enters the game leading the team in carries. The Nittany Lion defenders will need to be decisive on read plays and the defensive backs will have to stay sticky during scramble drills.

Temple quarterback Jaxon Smolik had some success on the ground against Penn State in Week 2, including a 47-yard scamper, something the defense will look to clean up against a more dangerous rushing threat.

Personnel-wise, the Badgers rarely utilize more than one tight end, but they occasionally operate out of an empty backfield, with Joseph still serving as a run threat in five-wide looks.

Joseph’s accuracy drops off substantially on downfield passes, so the Badgers rely primarily on quick developing routes while utilizing heavy play action to draw in linebackers. The Nittany Lions will need quick recognition on screens and curls for opportunities for pass breakups and takeaways.

Wisconsin’s defense has been average through three games, struggling against the Fighting Irish but responding with respectable showings against Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. They base out of a 4-2-5 alignment which should be familiar for Penn State. 

Players to Watch

Quarterback Colton Joseph (1) makes the offense hum, and while he often struggles with accuracy, his legs are a viable threat to account for. The Nittany Lions may want to spy Joseph and will need to maintain the edge to keep him from escaping the pocket.

This season, Joseph has 54 completions on 85 attempts (63.5%) for 752 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. On the ground, he has 25 carries for 82 yards and one score.

Assuming running back Abu Sama III (3) plays for the Badgers, he’ll be a player to watch offensively. He has 23 carries for 156 yards (6.8 average) and one touchdown, and he missed last week’s game.

Wide receiver Tyrell Henry (0) is the team’s leading receiver and had a breakout game last Saturday with a whopping 14 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. He’s smaller in stature but a good route-runner with speed.

Defensively, linebacker/edge rusher Sebastian Cheeks (15) is a veteran play-maker, already responsible for two forced fumbles this season. He’s also credited with 14 total quarterback pressures, which leads the team by a wide margin.

Keys to Victory

Penn State: The Nittany Lions need to play clean football, avoiding miscues like turnovers and penalties, and convert on red zone opportunities.

Wisconsin: The Badgers’ offense can create confusion with zone reads, option plays and double moves, allowing them to march downfield against a defense that hasn’t been tested yet this season.

Score Prediction

Penn State 28, Wisconsin 17