The Cheap Ticket Dollars and the 82% Betting Sense of Penn State vs. Purdue

All is not lost for Penn State football as it comes off a bye week to play host to Purdue this Saturday in Beaver Stadium.

In fact, for the Nittany Lion fans who have not jumped ship since the team’s ohfer-4 start in the Big Ten Conference under new head coach Matt Campbell, there are good deals to be had:

Tickets for the 4:15 p.m. contest against the Boilermakers are going on StubHub for as little as $12.56 each for a pair of tickets together in section NGU, Row 66 – that’s high above the north end zone. Of that price, $7.84 is for the ticket and $5.02 is for fees. Great all-22 sightlines, though. StubHub says it’s an “amazing view based on price, view, seat quality or more.”

Maybe you feel like splurging for the late afternoon Halloween matchup of the 3-4 Nittany Lions and the Boilermakers, who are 3-4 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten. Like PSU, Purdue is coming off a bye week, having lost 38-26 to Washington at home on Friday night, Oct. 15.

Then boy does StubHub have a deal for you: A pair for tickets, $43 each, close to the field on the 45-yard line in Row N, in section WD on the west side of the stadium. The breakdown: $31.43 for the ticket, $11.86 for the fees.

DRIVE FOR FIVE: Even better news: According to ESPN Analytics, the Nittany Lions are heavy favorites to win out the rest of the regular season. Here’s the breakdown, with the current percent chance of Penn State winning:

Oct. 31, H —Purdue (3-4/2-2), 82.2% chance
Nov. 7, A — Washington (4-3/1-3), 59.8% chance
Nov. 14, H — Minnesota (5-2/3-1), 84.9% chance
Nov. 21, H — Rutgers (2-5/1-3), 90.6% chance
Nov. 28, A — Maryland (2-5/0-4), 84.8% chance

ESPN Analytics see Penn State as the best of what is, TBH, a bad Big Ten lot. Penn State and three of its upcoming foes — Washington, Rutgers and Maryland — comprise four of the bottom five cellar-dwellers the Big Ten standings. Overall, Penn State’s next five opponents are 16-19 and are 7-13 collectively in conference games. (Add Penn State and that group’s combined B10 record is 7-17).

FIRST, PURDUE: According to FanDuel, Penn State is a 7.5-point favorite to beat the Boilermakers, who before losing to Washington, won 24-17 at Illinois, then defeated Minnesota 41-13 in West Lafayette.

Purdue has played in Beaver Stadium only three times in the past 15 years, all Penn State wins — 23-18 in 2011, 45-21 in 2013 and 35-7 in 2019. That history doesn’t really matter, though. On the Penn State coaching staff and roster, only associate head coach Terry Smithe was around for the most recent victory.

We really can’t be sure how much of a homefield advantage Beaver Stadium is these days. The Nittany Lions are just 1-5 in their last six Big Ten games in Beaver Stadium over the past two seasons. The sole conference win came 344 days ago, on Nov. 22 in a 37-10 victory over Nebraska.

The 114,419 who showed up for the White Out against USC over two weeks certainly helped Penn State to a degree — but not enough in crunch time, when USC scored twice in a 10-minute span in the second half to turn a 20-17 deficit into a 31-23 victory.

Overall, in the Nittany Lions’ past three home games — Buffalo, Wisconsin and USC — the Nittany Lions have been outscored 28-10 in the fourth quarter. Expect maybe half of the White Out crowd, at most, to be in the stadium when the final quarter rolls around this Saturday.

In addition, in their last two home games in Beaver Stadium, offensive touchdowns have been at real premium for the Nittany Lions. The offense scored only one TD vs. Wisconsin (a 3-yard run by QB Rocco Becht) and two TD’s against USC (a 13-yard pass from Becht to Andrew Rappleyea and a 3-yard run by Carson Hansen). Otherwise, they have one touchdown on defense — a pick-six by Josiah Zayas against Wisconsin — and five field goals by Ryan Barker (22, 26, 35, 37 and 48 yards).

CAMPBELL’S COMPANY: Penn State’s slow start under Campbell and his mix-and-match squad — which is comprised of half transfers and half veteran Penn PSU players — is not uncommon for new and interim head coaches at Penn State new over the past century. The history: