When the College Football Playoff leaders announced last week they were staying at four teams for at least the next four seasons, it was a bad news/good news scenario for Penn State.
For Penn State, perhaps as much as any of the 65 teams in the Power 5, it also had to be devastating news that the playoffs will not expand until at least 2026.
Especially since 12 seemed to be the magic number — for moving forward and with Penn State’s track record with the CFP.
Four times in the past six seasons Penn State was ranked in the CFP’s Top 12 on Selection Sunday, though never in the top four that advanced to the playoffs. That’s the most of any team that has not made it to the playoffs even once.
Baylor, Florida, Ole Miss and Wisconsin have each made the Top 12 three times on Selection Sunday, but also have yet to make the playoffs. Baylor (2014), Penn State (2016) and Texas A&M (2020) are the only three teams to rise as high as No. 5 on Selection Sunday but never make it to the playoffs.
Since the start of the CFP era in 2014, that makes Penn State the best of the rest, followed by Baylor — close but no cigar. Expansion would have clearly benefited the Nittany Lions, who play in the always-challenging Big Ten East, which has sent two teams not named Penn State to the playoffs in the past two seasons.
And, sadly, by the time the expanded playoffs do come around in 2026, the Nittany Lions two rookie (potential) phenoms – running back Nicholas Singleton, the National Gatorade Player of the Year, and five-star quarterback Drew Allar — will very likely be gone, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which they will have already had three or four college seasons under their belts.
Very hard to see either of them being at Penn State in 2026, when there will very likely be 12 teams in the CFP. In that sense, the window was closed this week on a very unique opportunity for Penn State football.
GOOD NEWS
For Penn State, there was some good news…but that is true for all 14 Big Ten schools:
With no additional playoff games to pay for at least until 2026, TV networks and streaming platforms will have mo’ money to pay the Big Ten for its media rights, since the conference’s current deals run out in 2023.
And that means more money for Penn State athletics. It is conceivable that the Big Ten could be giving its members up to $100 million per year by the time the CFP expands. As Andy Staples of The Athletic explains it:
“So Disney, which owns the CFP’s media rights and would get the first crack at buying any new version, suddenly has more money to spend for 2023-25. A new opening round could have theoretically been sold to another entity if Disney balked, and Fox, CBS and NBC, all want to maintain or expand their college football presence. Now those networks have only one way to buy premium games before 2026: They have to overpay the Big Ten.”
Before the pandemic, the Big Ten was paying each school – whether it be Penn State, Purdue or Illinois – about $55 million. It dipped to $33 mil the past year, but that was an anomaly.
A big annual check of $100 million can erase a lot of Penn State’s financial challenges – from COVID debt to loans owed to Old Main for facilities and fines; from paying for new venues and renovations to NIL impacting overall donations; from spiraling ICA staff sizes and $85 million contracts to Title IX responsibilities.
So, no playoff could very well mean a much bigger payoff for Sandy Barbour’s athletic department, whose annual revenues, during normal times, equal about $165 million.
MORE OF THE SAME
Now, the bad news:
On the field, it’s status quo, now that we know playoff expansion won’t come until the 2026 season, at the earliest.
That means more of the same, with division realignment, reworked Alliance schedules and greater postseason opportunities all tabled — the latter for sure.
The road to making the CFP stays the same for 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 – meaning, Penn State very likely has to win the Big Ten’s very (very) loaded East Division. The by-now set-in-stone, pre-determined pathway to the Big Football Dance remains.
As for the East division and any Penn State hopes of realignment: Don’t count on Ohio State, Michigan and/or Michigan State going anywhere soon. Though the Big Ten has looked at realignment, it is more likely that it will wait for the reworked playoff system for that to happen now. After the 2022 schedule, which was just retooled, only three seasons remain until the whole thing is blown up anyway.
And what of trimming the conference schedule from nine games — the current format for the Big Ten, the Big-12 and Pac-12 — to eight to match the number of conference games that both SEC and ACC play?
That’s DOA. At least that’s what Gene Smith of Ohio State says. And he’s the most powerful AD in the conference, nearly matching Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren in clout.
So, don’t look for any major schedule shifts in the next four seasons, even though the Big Ten is in a new partnership with The Alliance, which includes the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Pac-12. When it was announced, the idea was floated that the Alliance would drop the Big Ten’s conference schedule to eight games, with the addition of a ninth game against a school from the Pac-12 (Stanford, USC or Oregon…cool, right?) or the ACC (also cool: Clemson, North Carolina or Pitt).
Not now, Bill Landis of The Athletic — and a Penn State alum — reported that Smith said last week:
“We had the eight versus nine (conference games) conversation more intensely at that time with the thought that if we played eight, would there be an ACC or Pac-12 school that we might play?” Smith said. “But we moved away from that pretty quickly because many of us felt like nine games was still right for us…. We thought that conference contests, from a TV partner point of view, were just as valuable. We decided to kind of walk away from that a little bit.”
TO BE FRANK(LIN) WITH YOU
This is not what Penn State head coach James Franklin wanted.
“In my mind, make (the playoff) as big as possible,” Franklin said in late 2021. “Once we expand the playoffs, in my opinion, we’re going to continue to deemphasize those other bowl games. To me, if we’re going to expand the playoffs, we should expand it as big as we possibly can to allow more teams the opportunity to play for the title, but also to be able to protect those bowl games by including them in that process as much as possible.”
Franklin also wanted a conference division realignment – he is 7-11 against the Big Three of Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State since 2016 — and symmetry among the conference schedules among the five leagues in the Power 5.
“I think that’s the first thing we need to do: Everybody needs to play eight (conference) games, everybody needs to play nine (conference) games, everybody’s playing 10 (conference) games — whatever it is,” Franklin said. “Just make it consistent across the board. I think that’s one of the first things you have to do. And then, standardize (whether) we’re either all playing an FCS opponent or no one is.”
That could still happen, in concert with a new CFP format. In 2026.
But, for now, it is likely each conference will stick to the same old tune. And for Penn State, that means six games a year with division rivals Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers and Indiana, plus three cross-over games with West division opponents.
Penn State has won the division just once in Franklin’s eight seasons. Even then, in 2016, the Nittany Lions not only won the East but also the Big Ten Conference — and still didn’t crack the top four who earned a golden ticket to the CFP.
Ohio State, which lost 24-21 to Penn State that season, earned a bid with an 11-1 record, while 11-2 Penn State – with regular season losses at Pitt (42-39) and at division rival Michigan (49-10), two weeks later – was left out of the cold, despite winning nine straight games and defeating West division champ Wisconsin 38-31 in the Big Ten title game. Penn State was ranked No. 5 in the penultimate CFP rankings.
That was one of four times Penn State was in the Top 12 of the CFP rankings on Selection Sunday. If there had been a 12-team playoff each year since the CFP was instituted in 2014, Penn State would have made the playoffs half of the eight seasons. What PSU football fan wouldn’t take that?
The Nittany Lions were No. 5 in 2016, No. 9 in 2017, No. 12 in 2018 and No. 10 in 2019.
If the CFP had 12 playoff teams for each of its first eight seasons, there would have been a combined 96 berths. Since 2014, 38 different teams have finished in the CFP’s Top 12 rankings that determined the final four. Just 13 have played in the CFP. Seven of the Big Ten teams have made the Top 12 at least once, with five from the East. They are: Ohio State (8), Penn State (4), Michigan (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (3), Iowa (1) and Indiana (1).
Big Ten East members Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State have made the playoffs. The SEC has also had three playoff teams, while the ACC and Pac-12 have both had two, and the Big-12 one. Here’s the full history of the CFP rankings on Selection Sunday; these are the standings after all conference championships are played, with the top four earning berths in the CFP (national champion in bold).
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
| 1. Ala | Ala | LSU | Ala | Clem | Ala | Clem | Ala |
| 2. Mich | Clem | Ohio St. | Clem | Okla | Clem | Ala | Ore |
| 3. GA | Ohio St. | Clem | ND | GA | Ohio St. | Mich St. | Fla St. |
| 4. Cinn | ND | Okla | Okla | Ala | Wash | Okla | Ohio St. |
| 5. ND | Tex A&M | GA | GA | Ohio St. | PENN ST. | Iowa | Baylor |
| 6. Ohio St. | Okla | Ore | Ohio St. | Wis | Mich | Stanford | TCU |
| 7. Baylor | Fla | Baylor | Mich | Auburn | Okla | Ohio St. | Miss St. |
| 8. Miss | Cinn | Wis | UCF | USC | Wis | ND | Mich St. |
| 9. Okla St. | GA | Fla | Wash | PENN ST. | USC | Fla St. | Miss |
| 10. Mich St. | Iowa St. | PENN ST. | Fla | Miami | Colo | NC | Ariz |
| 11. Utah | Indiana | Utah | LSU | Wash | Fla St. | TCU | Kan St. |
| 12. Pitt | Coastal Car | Auburn | PENN ST. | UCF | Okla St. | Miss | Ga Tech |
This at least had to be on the mind of Sandy Barbour and the Penn State Board of Trustees’ compensation committee when they gave Franklin his 10-year, $85 million guaranteed contract late last fall.
At that point, a 12-game playoff was on the horizon, sooner rather than later. And history told us – and the PSU decision-makers — that, despite Penn State’s lousy 11-11 record over the past two seasons, Franklin’s Nittany Lions would have at least a 50/50 shot if there were a dozen teams in the CFP.
Now, that pathway is on hold for at least four more seasons, during which time Franklin will bank at least another $34 million.
THE PATH TO THE CFP: 2022-2026
So just how does a team make it to college football’s Final Four? After eight seasons and 32 berths in the books, you don’t need to be former Nittany Lion, CFP committee member and math genius John Urschel to figure it out. The path to the CFP is pretty clear:
26 of 32 teams — undefeated or 1-loss Power 5 conference champion
2 of 32 teams — 1-loss Power 5 teams that did not play in their conference championship (Ohio State, 2016; Alabama, 2017)
2 of 32 teams – lost the conference championship in a rematch of a regular season victory (Georgia, SEC, 2021; Notre Dame, in its one year in the ACC, 2020)
1 of 32 teams – unbeaten independent (Notre Dame, 2018)
1 of 32 teams – undefeated Group of 5 conference champion (Cincinnati, 2021)
What does this say about Penn State as far as the Nittany Lions making the CFP in 2022-2025? It is more of the same:
1. Win the Big Ten. This entails going at worst 8-1 in the Big Ten regular season, winning the East and then winning the Big Ten title game (which the East has done annually since 2014). PSU would have to, at the very least, go 2-1 vs. the Big Three and, more likely, go 3-0 – which it last did in 2008, by a 108-41 margin: 46-17 vs. Michigan, 13-6 at Ohio State and 49-18 vs. Michigan State.
2. Lose only once (to a Big Ten team), but not win the division. This is what Ohio State did in 2016, when Penn State was buckeyed by the CFP committee.
3. Lose the Big Ten title game in a rematch against a West team it beat in the regular season, but otherwise go undefeated. This means Penn State wins the East, likely wins all of its regular season crossover games, and then loses to a crossover opponent it beat in the regular season in a rematch in the championship game. Tough scenario.
In Franklin’s eight years at Penn State, Ohio State has won the East five times, Michigan State in 2014, Penn State in 2016 and Michigan in 2021. The four schools play an annual round robin that is brutal – at least for the teams not in Columbus. Here’s a breakdown since 2016 (d = division title; c = conference title); only Ohio State has gone 3-0.
| Year | Ohio State | Penn State | Michigan | Michigan St. |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 2-1 (cd) | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| 2017 | 3-0 (cd) | 1-2 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| 2018 | 3-0 (cd) | 0-3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| 2019 | 3-0 (cd) | 2-1 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| 2020 | 3-0 (cd) | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| 2021 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 2-1 (cd) | 2-1 |
| Total | 16-2 | 7-11 | 7-11 | 6-12 |
The question is: How much will the dynamics in the East change in the next four years?
Put on the boxing gloves: It will be rough and tumble, with all the old familiar faces.
Ryan Day’s contract at Ohio State, reworked in 2020, runs through 2026; Jim Harbaugh’s new contract at Michigan, announced last week, runs through 2026; Mel Tucker’s contract at Michigan State, announced in November, runs through 2032 or the new millennium, whichever comes first. Franklin’s contract was extended through the 2031 season. (At that point, Franklin would be 59 years old and in his 18th season at Penn State.)
ADVANTAGE PENN STATE: NON-CON & CROSSOVER GAMES
Here’s some good news for Penn State fans:
Over the next four seasons, Penn State does have a pair of advantages over its three staunch division rivals: its non-conference schedule and slate of Big Ten crossover games both appear to be easier. That doesn’t ameliorate the challenges Franklin & Co. face in their annual round-robin, but it should help pad the W-L record a bit.
Let’s take a look at the non-conference schedule first. It is very likely that Penn State will not be playing a non-con opponent ranked in the Top 25 over its next dozen games.
What about Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium on Sept. 17? Well, besides that the Tigers are essentially an off-the-field hot mess right now, they open their 2022 season against Mercer and San Jose State, not a pair of powerhouses that will help the Tigers rise above what surely be the poll voters’ poor perception of their program heading into the season.
Under Franklin, Penn State has flourished in regular-season non-conference games. They are 21-2 overall, with 11 consecutive non-con victories dating back to 2016. Their only regular-season non-Big Ten losses have been to Temple and Matt Rhule in the 2015 season-opener at Lincoln Financial Field and the three-point loss at Pitt in 2016.
Penn State’s non-conference opponents in 2022-2025 – with one slot to be filled in 2025 – were a combined 65-74 (.468) last season. Michigan State’s upcoming non-con opponents were 74-72 (.507); Ohio State’s were 70-80 (.467); and Michigan’s 63-85 (.426). Certainly, the caliber of teams change over five years, but this still provides a decent ballpark.
But that’s only part of the story. In the next four seasons, Ohio State will have two games against Notre Dame, plus Washington and Texas. Michigan plays at Oklahoma and at Texas. Michigan State faces Washington and Louisiana. Bad news for Sparty: Louisiana was 34-5 the past three seasons. Good news for Sparty: Its coach, Billy Napier, has gone to Florida.
Penn State, meanwhile, has a burnt Auburn as its sole signature intersectional non-conference game for the next four seasons. PSU does have a home-and-home with West Virginia, which it last placed in 1992. WVU is 11-11 over the past two seasons, and has won more than eight games only once since 2011.
When it comes to crossover games, Penn State’s results have been a bell curve under Franklin. The Nittany Lions are 14-8 overall: they started 1-3, won 11 straight and beginning with the 2019 loss at Minnesota in 2019, they have been 2-5, with the last two wins vs. Illinois (2020) and at Wisconsin (2021).
Looking ahead to games against the West, Penn State appears to have the easiest path in 2022-25. The Nittany Lions play the top two teams in the West only twice in four seasons — Wisconsin and Iowa once each — while facing perennial bottom-dweller Illinois three times, and the following schools twice: Minnesota, Purdue and Northwestern. They play Nebraska once.
The Buckeyes have the toughest go of it, by far: They play Wisconsin four times and Iowa twice, while facing Illinois and Nebraska just once each. Michigan plays Wisconsin once, Iowa twice, Nebraska four times and Illinois twice. Michigan State plays Wisconsin twice, Iowa once and Minnesota four times, while facing Nebraska once and Illinois twice.
Take a look at the chart and then circle the 2025 season; it could be Penn State’s year.
In 2025, Ohio State plays Texas, Washington, Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Meanwhile, Penn State — with Allar and Singleton in Year 3, behind a bunch of matured O-linemen — plays Nevada, Villanova, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and a non-conference foe to be announced.
Here is a look at the non-conference and cross-over schedules for the East’s Big Four for the next four seasons:
PENN STATE
Year Non-conference Crossover vs. B10 West 2022 Ohio, Cen. Mich., @Auburn @Purdue, N’western, Minnesota 2023 WVU, Delaware, UMass @Illinois, @ N’western, Iowa 2024 @WVU, Bowling Green, Kent St Illinois, @Wisconsin, Nebraska 2025 Nevada, Villanova, tba @Illinois, Purdue, @Minnesota
OHIO STATE
| Year | Non-conference | Crossover vs. B10 West |
| 2022 | Notre Dame, Ark. St., Toledo | Wisconsin, Iowa, @N’western |
| 2023 | San Jose St., W. Ky., @Notre Dame | @Purdue, @Wisconsin, Minnesota |
| 2024 | S. Miss., @Washington, W. Mich. | Illinois, @Nebraska, Wisconsin |
| 2025 | Texas, Washington, UConn | @Iowa, @Wisconsin, N’western |
MICHIGAN
| Year | Non-conference | Crossover vs. B10 West |
| 2022 | Colorado St., Hawaii, UConn | @Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois |
| 2023 | E. Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green | @Minnesota, @Nebraska, Purdue |
| 2024 | Fresno St., @Texas, Ark. St. | Wisconsin, Nebraska, @N’western |
| 2025 | New Mexico, @Okla., Cen. Mich. | @Nebraska, @Illinois, Iowa |
MICHIGAN STATE
| Year | Non-conference | Crossover vs. B10 West |
| 2022 | W. Mich., Akron, @Washington | Minnesota, Wisconsin, @Illinois |
| 2023 | Cen. Mich., Richmond, Washington | @Iowa, @Minnesota, Nebraska |
| 2024 | Fla. Atlantic, Louisiana, @BC | Minnesota, N’western, @Purdue |
| 2025 | W. Mich., Youngstown St., BC | @Minnesota, @Wisconsin, Illinois |
